Prediction Competition November 2020

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 7 by-elections for 7 seats during November:
- 1 on 5th November
- 1 on 12th
- 3 on 19th
- 2 on 26th

All 7 of the by-elections are for Scottish authorities, all elected in 2017

SNP defend 6 seats, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 5 a resignation, 1 of which was sitting as an Independent
Conservatives defend 1 seat following a resignation

With all seats having declared nominations:
Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, SNP and Scottish Greens have a full slate of 7 candidates, UKIP have 3, Libertarian Party have 2 along with 5 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 3 seats
- a total of 46 candidates for 7 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9am on the morning of the election. Reminder that for Scottish elections predictions are of first preferences and that if you want to choose a different winner after transfers then this must be specified. If no specification is made then the first preference winner will be taken as the default. Welcome back everyone!

[iainbhx]

Aberdeen - Kincorth Nigg and Cove

SNP 34 CON 24 LAB 12 Ind (Finlayson) 9 LDm 6 Grn 5 Ind (Belizzi Houston) 4 , Ind (Maclean) 3 Scot Libertarian 2 Ind (Iroh) 1. SNP win on transfers.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Aberdeen - Kincorth Nigg and CoveAberdeen - Kincorth Nigg and Cove
SNP win on transfers.
SNP 40%, Con 22%, Ind (Finlayson) 13%, Lab 6%, LD 5.5%, Scottish Libertarian 5%, Green 4.5%, McLEAN, (Independent) 2%, BELLIZZI HOUSTON (No Description)1.2%, IROH, Sochima (Independent) 0.8%

[Tony Otim]

Aberdeen (Comfortable SNP win):
SNP 44.5
Con 21.5
Lab 16.1
Finlayson 8.5
LD 4.6
Grn 2.2
McLean 0.9
Iroh 0.7
Bellizzi Houston 0.6
Lib 0.4

[greenhert]

Aberdeen UA, Kincorth, Nigg & Cove (1st preferences): SNP 44.6, Conservative 20, Labour 17, Independent (Finlayson) 8, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3, Independent (McLean) 1, Independent (Iroh) 0.6, Independent (Bellizzi Houston) 0.5, Libertarian 0.3.

[Robert Waller]

Aberdeen (SNP win):
SNP 42
Con 22
Lab 14
Finlayson 8
LD 6
Grn 3
Libertarian 2
McLean 1
Iroh 1
Bellizzi Houston 1

[yellowperil]

Aberdeen,Kincorth. Nigg& Cove:

SNP 44, Con 20, Lab16, Ind Finlayson 8, LD 5, GP 4, Ind McLean1, Ind  B-H 1, Libertarian 0.5, Ind Iroh 0.5

SNP win on transfers

[Deleted]

Aberdeen: SNP 42 Con 20 Lab 18 Finlayson 7 LD 5 Grn 3 McLean 2 Belizzi Houston 2 Iroh 0.7 Libertarian 0.3

SNP win

[rightleaning]

SNP 47
Con 22
Lab 16
Finlayson 7
LD 4
Grn 2
McLean 1
Iroh 1
Bellizzi Houston 0
Lib 0

[robbienicoll]

8 entries to open the month, all on time and correct.

Kincorth, Nigg and Cove, Aberdeen: 100% SNP hold, with first preference majorities ranging from 10% (iainbhx) to 25% (Right Leaning).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rOAfasJbcQl_-7QyThvNE2rXiRdiSHo4TFIszaONMQA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to everyone!

[yellowperil]

Nov 5, 2020 17:38:03 GMT robbienicoll said:

8 entries to open the month, all on time and correct.

Kincorth, Nigg and Cove, Aberdeen: 100% SNP hold, with first preference majorities ranging from 10% (iainbhx) to 25% (Right Leaning).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rOAfasJbcQl_-7QyThvNE2rXiRdiSHo4TFIszaONMQA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to everyone!

On time , certainly- whether correct remains to be seen!  We seem to have come to broadly similar conclusions -maybe more than a bit of herding there? Terribly difficult to sort out these strange Scottish elections with a plethora of Indies complicating the issue.

With no English elections to predict for the forseeable future we might have been better trying to predict the elections going on across the pond- something easier like picking winners in Georgia, say

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

For some reason I can't access the document, get access denied not sure why.

[robbienicoll]

Google Docs seem to have changed how access is done. Should be available through the link now.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rOAfasJbcQl_-7QyThvNE2rXiRdiSHo4TFIszaONMQA/edit?usp=sharing

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Thanks

Unfortunately my Libertarian gamble failed spectacularly.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Well done to rightleaning for just pipping Tony Otim this week.

[Tony Otim]

Nov 6, 2020 15:12:40 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Thanks

Unfortunately my Libertarian gamble failed spectacularly.

The moral of the story is never fall for boogie's ramping 😉

[yellowperil]

In the end the wait wasn't all that long- they need to learn a few tricks from Nevada.

[rightleaning]

Nov 6, 2020 15:16:57 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Well done to rightleaning for just pipping Tony Otim this week.

It will be downhill from here 

[Deleted]

A pretty decent performance all around actually. Certainly bad given that we've all had an 8 month break

[iainbhx]

Craigtinny/Duddingston: SNP 43 LAB 20 CON 17 GRN 11 LDM 5 IND 3 ScotLib 1
SNP win on transfers