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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 31, 2023 15:17:44 GMT
Don't think that's the first time it's happened.
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 31, 2023 15:52:14 GMT
Based on the 2023 local elections in this constituency, where the Tories had a comfortable lead in both votes and councillors, it is looking very likely to be a Tory gain at the next general election. Excluding seats lost in by-elections, there must be a very good chance that it will be their only gain. I am assuming that any boundary changes will not be big enough to radically change the demographics. It would be interesting to hear from anyone with local knowledge whether they think Labour have a chance of holding on here. It would also be interesting to know if there are any other seats that could be potential Tory gains. Wonder whether the General Election suggests a Tory gain? Is the actual result a Tory winner given the percentage? Will this mean a Labour chance? Does this might suggest a local Labour candidate? |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 31, 2023 16:08:48 GMT
Based on the 2023 local elections in this constituency, where the Tories had a comfortable lead in both votes and councillors, it is looking very likely to be a Tory gain at the next general election. Excluding seats lost in by-elections, there must be a very good chance that it will be their only gain. I am assuming that any boundary changes will not be big enough to radically change the demographics. It would be interesting to hear from anyone with local knowledge whether they think Labour have a chance of holding on here. It would also be interesting to know if there are any other seats that could be potential Tory gains. A lot of the Tory vote in local elections comes down to factional opposition to Peter Soulsby. While possible, I'm not entirely convinced this will extend to the Tories gaining the Westminster seat. I have a good friend who's the campaign manager/roommate of the leader of the Green group on Leicester council, and generally heavily involved in Leicester politics. I'll ask him for his thoughts when I next see him. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 31, 2023 16:35:18 GMT
I'd have thought the largest reason for Labour Tory switchers is religion. Hindu vote turning way from Labour. Labour trying to make overtures to Hindu voters and finding the Muslim vote is unhappy with that. All while Leicester is the boiling cauldron of the Hindu Muslim divide
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 1, 2023 7:00:26 GMT
It’s not obvious that the local election pattern will carry over to a General Election, though nor is it obvious that they won’t.
There are a handful of potential Tory gains in Scotland if the SNP have a bad election.
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batman
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Post by batman on Sept 1, 2023 7:35:59 GMT
I think a Tory gain is very possible but a Labour hold is not off the table. And that it will indeed be the only Tory gain from Labour at the election if it eventuates.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 1, 2023 7:51:44 GMT
I think a Tory gain is very possible but a Labour hold is not off the table. And that it will indeed be the only Tory gain from Labour at the election if it eventuates. I wonder if Canterbury could be possible given the rift that has opened up between Rosie Duffield and the SJW/Corbynista element that was so important in her winning the seat in the first place (ie there may be a large scale defection of those voters to eg the Green party). This would depend on the result natioanlly being much close than the opinion polls suggest - in the event of a Labour landslide its hardly going to swing that far against the trend. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Sept 1, 2023 8:18:24 GMT
It's just about possible with her as the candidate. But rather unlikely.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Sept 1, 2023 8:42:06 GMT
I think a Tory gain is very possible but a Labour hold is not off the table. And that it will indeed be the only Tory gain from Labour at the election if it eventuates. Selby is somewhat viable as another possible Tory gain if they do well. |
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Sept 1, 2023 8:56:39 GMT
If there's a recovery to some extent, possibly Hartlepool as a technical gain?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 10, 2023 10:39:11 GMT
I think a Tory gain is very possible but a Labour hold is not off the table. And that it will indeed be the only Tory gain from Labour at the election if it eventuates. Selby is somewhat viable as another possible Tory gain if they do well. This would not count strictly speaking, as it was from a by-election. (though equally, that would make Hartlepool an actual gain - not a "technical" one) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2023 16:04:13 GMT
Based on the 2023 local elections in this constituency, where the Tories had a comfortable lead in both votes and councillors, it is looking very likely to be a Tory gain at the next general election. Excluding seats lost in by-elections, there must be a very good chance that it will be their only gain. I am assuming that any boundary changes will not be big enough to radically change the demographics. It would be interesting to hear from anyone with local knowledge whether they think Labour have a chance of holding on here. It would also be interesting to know if there are any other seats that could be potential Tory gains. Well that would be both stunning (and admittedly delightful) but also slightly disconcerting. I know the local Labour Party and local MPs have not covered themselves in glory over the years (and perhaps they’ve taken things for granted?), but I’m not delighted if people vote on religious or racial lines. Albeit I can understand why Hindus may be excited, enthused or proud that there is a Hindu PM. |
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