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Post by Merseymike on Feb 9, 2021 22:28:35 GMT
The seat Labour need to win to get a majority of 1. Interesting. I read somewhere not so long ago that it was neighbouring Beckenham that was the clincher for Labour. Either way, it shows a bit of both the task Labour have ahead of them and that these are the former solidly Tory seats where they have underperformed relatively in recent years. The Tories had an 11K majority in Bromley & Chislehurst in 1997, on not hugely different boundaries, and now Labour need it for a majority of 1. It's about voter distribution. In 2005 it was slanted towards Labour's benefit but that has sharply reversed since then. Labour's vote is ever more concentrated in the cities. |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 9, 2021 22:31:19 GMT
The seat Labour need to win to get a majority of 1. Interesting. I read somewhere not so long ago that it was neighbouring Beckenham that was the clincher for Labour. Either way, it shows a bit of both the task Labour have ahead of them and that these are the former solidly Tory seats where they have underperformed relatively in recent years. The Tories had an 11K majority in Bromley & Chislehurst in 1997, on not hugely different boundaries, and now Labour need it for a majority of 1. The Tory majority in 1997 was helped by an almost perfect split between Labour and the Lib Dem’s, so the 11,000 majority was achieved on 46% and was perhaps a bit more vulnerable than it looked on paper, which was of course proven by the Lib Dem near miss in the 2006 by election. The Tory vote was 53% in 2019 , so 7% higher than 1997 but the notional 2005 result on the new boundaries knocked 6% off the Conservative share which sort of means that there change here is in the ballpark with the 13% national rise for the party in that time. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 9, 2021 22:43:10 GMT
This area does appear to be moving downmarket going by the number of serious crimes you read about being committed in Chislehurst. Similar to Bexleyheath in that regard.
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Post by jacoblamsden on Feb 9, 2021 23:34:54 GMT
This area does appear to be moving downmarket going by the number of serious crimes you read about being committed in Chislehurst. Similar to Bexleyheath in that regard. Chislehurst itself is certainly anything but downmarket - I'd have thought it is probably the wealthiest part of Bromley borough and feels as well-heeled as it always has. But Chislehurst does border Mottingham to the north and St Paul's Cray to the south, both huge council estates with problems that no doubt spill over Chislehurst into some extent. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 1, 2022 6:30:29 GMT
Bromley and Chislehurst have been combined in a constituency since 1997 but that association will come to an end if the current proposals by the boundary commission are adopted. Chislehurst and Mottingham are to be added to the Eltham seat and this in turn forces the removal of the Cray Valley West ward to Orpington. In all this amounts to some 31,000 of the total 67,000 voters in the current seat and includes some relatively strong Labour areas in Mottingham and St Paul's Cray. To replace these areas the wards of Bromley Common & Keston and Hayes & Coney Hall are added (one might say returned) from Beckenham. This reunites the whole of Bromley itself in a single seat. The intiial proposals addtionally added the Petts Wood & Knoll ward from Orpington but as that is an integral part of that town this caused multiple objections and in the revised proposals Biggin Hill is added instead, with a ward split in Darwin creating a corridor that ward. The name is changed to Bromley & Biggin Hill. This does shift the political balance a bit in a seat that was tentatively creeping towards potential marginality. Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries - Bromley & Biggin Hill | Con | 26597 | 54.5% | | Lab | 12454 | 25.5% | | LD | 7731 | 15.8% | | Grn | 1821 | 3.7% | | Oth | 198 | 0.4% |
| | | | Majority | 14143 | 29.0% |
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Post by where2travel on Dec 1, 2022 10:26:21 GMT
The move of Chislehurst out of this constituency and into the new Eltham & Chislehurst seat does mean my claim in the original profile here didn't hold good for very long: "... it’s hard to believe a constituency with Chislehurst in the name voting anything other than Conservative today..."
I've always thought of Shortlands as being part of Bromley (and certainly the part of that ward that goes right up to Bromley town centre will think of itself as Bromley), so I'm not completely convinced quite all of Bromley is being reunited into this new seat.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 1, 2022 10:36:26 GMT
I've always thought of Shortlands as being part of Bromley (and certainly the part of that ward that goes right up to Bromley town centre will think of itself as Bromley), so I'm not completely convinced quite all of Bromley is being reunited into this new seat. Of course there's various differing definitions of places and postal towns and administrative towns don't match and so on. But I was thinking in terms of the area of the old Bromley MB - I think the ward boundaries more or less still follow the old boundary in that area and Shortlands was always part of Beckenham MB even if it is close to the centre of Bromley |
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