Post by European Lefty on Jul 18, 2020 20:14:54 GMT
South Swindon
South Swindon - note, South Swindon, not Swindon South - covers the southern half of the borough of Swindon in north east Wiltshire. It includes the southern half of the town itself, broadly speaking the part south of the railway line although there are exceptions, as well as the villages of Wroughton, Chisledon and Wanborough.
Swindon is an Anglo-Saxon town, whose name means “Swine Hill”. Its main historical fame, however, is as a railway town dominated by the Great Western Railway works. The town as it is today started life as a small railway village and grew into a thriving new town around the railway industry. In 1871, the GWR instituted a medical fund whereby workers had a small amount deducted from their wages and put into a fund which entitled them to free medicine and medical treatment. A version of this system was later used as the template for the NHS. On top of this, the GWR built a health centre in 1892, and the Mechanics’ Institute founded the UK’s first lending library and provided access to a range of improving lectures. It also convinced the company to continue providing healthcare for former employees. The factory is famous for building Evening Star, the last steam engine to be built in the UK. From the 60s onwards, the industry went into decline, and it ceased all works in 1986, although its legacy remains strong in the town. Other industries, such as aircraft manufacture and making electrical components came to Swindon in World War two. Since the loss of much of its industry, this half of Swindon has become something of a hub for the financial sector, with both Zurich’s UK branch and Nationwide having their headquarters here.
South Swindon is the 278th most deprived constituency in England, although its score for overall deprivation is still below the median. There is variation throughout the seat, however, with the town centre communities of Park and Eldene containing sever deprivation and significant deprivation existing in the centre around the station and in the eastern areas of Liden and Dorcan This stands in stark contrast to the rural communities, most of which vary from what could be described as “comfortably off” to genuinely wealthy. This constituency contains LSOAs in both the poorest and richest deciles in England. It has a slightly more working-class labour market than average: although managerial and professional occupations are close to the national average, elementary and routine occupations are significantly over-represented in this constituency. In terms of employment by industry, manufacturing, once the lifeblood of the local economy, has all but disappeared from this seat, employing just 3.9% of the workforce compared to 8.1% nationally. Financial services are over-represented, employing 15.6% of employees – the highest of any industry in this seat and over four times the national average. The seat’s average income is close to the national average, although slightly lower. Housing tenure statistics are also almost bang-on average, at 61.8% owner-occupied, 17.8% social rented and 17.8% private rented (compared to national averages of 63.5%, 18.2% and 16.3% respectively), although there is wide variation. on the pre-2012 ward boundaries, Central ward was just 47.5% owner-occupied, with a high rate of private renting and Parks ward was just 42.8% owner-occupied, with a high rate of social renting; Walcot and Eastcott were also under 60% owner-occupied.
Education statistics are broadly average, although people with level three and above qualifications are slightly under-represented and people with no qualifications over-represented. The seat is 83% British born, compared to a national average of 87% and is 86% white. This represents a lower figure than North Swindon, thanks to the nearly 30% Asian population in Central ward.
So, this indicates a broadly average constituency, perhaps slightly more deprived and slightly more working-class, but still fairly average. No surprise then, that it has been a bellwether for its entire history, being a Labour seat from its creation in 1997 until 2010 and a Conservative seat since then. Until 2010, it had very similar results to its neighbour North Swindon, although the two have since diverged. While that has a Conservative majority of nearly 30%, even in 2019 this seat was won by the Tories with a 13.1% and just 52.3% of the vote. So what’s changed? Loss of industry seems an unlikely explanation, as that has more seriously impacted this seat. The urban parts of this seat have a more genuinely urban rather than suburban “feel”, which tends to be stronger for Labour. It is also a more deprived and, perhaps more importantly, lower income seat, although there isn’t a lot in it. The not insignificant Asian population provides a large and almost immovable block vote for Labour, which has helped them retain more of their strength. It also has an around average section of the workforce employed in human health and social work, whereas its northern neighbour has a far lower proportion, which suggests more public sector workers in this seat. Crucially, this factor as well as the juxtaposition between the richer and poorer areas and an ethnic minority block vote for Labour, has helped keep this seat roughly in line with national trends.
Generally speaking, there is a political divide between the central and outer areas, with the deprived urban areas voting Labour and the outer rural and suburban areas voting Conservative. The closest thing to a bellwether ward is Old Town, which is roughly where the centre and outer bits meet: win that, and you have a very strong chance of taking the seat.
Overall, this is a seat that has retained bellwether status where many others have lost it. Labour’s defeat in 2019 was not catastrophic and it is still within reach in one election. Next time Labour win a majority in parliament, this constituency is almost certain to be part of it.
South Swindon - note, South Swindon, not Swindon South - covers the southern half of the borough of Swindon in north east Wiltshire. It includes the southern half of the town itself, broadly speaking the part south of the railway line although there are exceptions, as well as the villages of Wroughton, Chisledon and Wanborough.
Swindon is an Anglo-Saxon town, whose name means “Swine Hill”. Its main historical fame, however, is as a railway town dominated by the Great Western Railway works. The town as it is today started life as a small railway village and grew into a thriving new town around the railway industry. In 1871, the GWR instituted a medical fund whereby workers had a small amount deducted from their wages and put into a fund which entitled them to free medicine and medical treatment. A version of this system was later used as the template for the NHS. On top of this, the GWR built a health centre in 1892, and the Mechanics’ Institute founded the UK’s first lending library and provided access to a range of improving lectures. It also convinced the company to continue providing healthcare for former employees. The factory is famous for building Evening Star, the last steam engine to be built in the UK. From the 60s onwards, the industry went into decline, and it ceased all works in 1986, although its legacy remains strong in the town. Other industries, such as aircraft manufacture and making electrical components came to Swindon in World War two. Since the loss of much of its industry, this half of Swindon has become something of a hub for the financial sector, with both Zurich’s UK branch and Nationwide having their headquarters here.
South Swindon is the 278th most deprived constituency in England, although its score for overall deprivation is still below the median. There is variation throughout the seat, however, with the town centre communities of Park and Eldene containing sever deprivation and significant deprivation existing in the centre around the station and in the eastern areas of Liden and Dorcan This stands in stark contrast to the rural communities, most of which vary from what could be described as “comfortably off” to genuinely wealthy. This constituency contains LSOAs in both the poorest and richest deciles in England. It has a slightly more working-class labour market than average: although managerial and professional occupations are close to the national average, elementary and routine occupations are significantly over-represented in this constituency. In terms of employment by industry, manufacturing, once the lifeblood of the local economy, has all but disappeared from this seat, employing just 3.9% of the workforce compared to 8.1% nationally. Financial services are over-represented, employing 15.6% of employees – the highest of any industry in this seat and over four times the national average. The seat’s average income is close to the national average, although slightly lower. Housing tenure statistics are also almost bang-on average, at 61.8% owner-occupied, 17.8% social rented and 17.8% private rented (compared to national averages of 63.5%, 18.2% and 16.3% respectively), although there is wide variation. on the pre-2012 ward boundaries, Central ward was just 47.5% owner-occupied, with a high rate of private renting and Parks ward was just 42.8% owner-occupied, with a high rate of social renting; Walcot and Eastcott were also under 60% owner-occupied.
Education statistics are broadly average, although people with level three and above qualifications are slightly under-represented and people with no qualifications over-represented. The seat is 83% British born, compared to a national average of 87% and is 86% white. This represents a lower figure than North Swindon, thanks to the nearly 30% Asian population in Central ward.
So, this indicates a broadly average constituency, perhaps slightly more deprived and slightly more working-class, but still fairly average. No surprise then, that it has been a bellwether for its entire history, being a Labour seat from its creation in 1997 until 2010 and a Conservative seat since then. Until 2010, it had very similar results to its neighbour North Swindon, although the two have since diverged. While that has a Conservative majority of nearly 30%, even in 2019 this seat was won by the Tories with a 13.1% and just 52.3% of the vote. So what’s changed? Loss of industry seems an unlikely explanation, as that has more seriously impacted this seat. The urban parts of this seat have a more genuinely urban rather than suburban “feel”, which tends to be stronger for Labour. It is also a more deprived and, perhaps more importantly, lower income seat, although there isn’t a lot in it. The not insignificant Asian population provides a large and almost immovable block vote for Labour, which has helped them retain more of their strength. It also has an around average section of the workforce employed in human health and social work, whereas its northern neighbour has a far lower proportion, which suggests more public sector workers in this seat. Crucially, this factor as well as the juxtaposition between the richer and poorer areas and an ethnic minority block vote for Labour, has helped keep this seat roughly in line with national trends.
Generally speaking, there is a political divide between the central and outer areas, with the deprived urban areas voting Labour and the outer rural and suburban areas voting Conservative. The closest thing to a bellwether ward is Old Town, which is roughly where the centre and outer bits meet: win that, and you have a very strong chance of taking the seat.
Overall, this is a seat that has retained bellwether status where many others have lost it. Labour’s defeat in 2019 was not catastrophic and it is still within reach in one election. Next time Labour win a majority in parliament, this constituency is almost certain to be part of it.