Burnley

[Deleted]

From the 1930s onwards, there seemed to be on certainty with the parliamentary constituency of Burnley: it would be a Labour hold. The town and its eponymous borough are often thought of as synonyms for Labour voters and the word "Burnley" itself used as synecdoche for homogeneous working-class East Lancashire voters. 

Burnley is not atypical for the towns along the "cotton thread" of Lancashire, the almost straight (if not very flat) line of towns running from the Pennines to the Ribble which provided so much industry, material and regional economy at the peak of the Industrial Revolution. Burnley folk have dirt under their fingernails and the town centre retains much of the feel of a post-industrial town struggling to move out from the shadows of its past. The factory buildings are still here, many converted, some boarded up, and the incredibly steep walk from Burnley's Manchester Road railway station provides a sweeping vista of the town's traditional architectural and economic past. One of the town's most striking landmarks is the chimney of the Queen Street Mill, built in 1894  and now open (sporadically and occasionally) as part of a museum. Passengers into Burnley's Central station (one of three railway stations pre-fixed "Burnley", and in this case, not accurately named) will travel over the town's other eye-catching local landmark, the 15-arch sandstone and redbrick viaduct, built for the East Lancashire Railway and still used by Northern trains into Colne, Accrington, Blackburn and Preston. 

Labour's history with Burnley can be traced to the earliest years of its existence, and in 1910 Dan Irving became the first of the party's MPs. Irving had been unsuccessful in earlier election attempts in nearby constituencies and had associated with the National Socialist Party prior to his success here. It was Arthur Henderson who is the better known, and more historically significant, of Labour's MPs for Burnley and apart from one election defeat to Vice Admiral Gordon Campbell in 1931, the Labour Party soon had one stronghold in Burnley amongst many neighbouring others.

Two opposing political factors changed the landscape for Burnley in particular, and specifically the Labour Party's stronghold on the town and its parliamentary seat. As with neighbouring Pendle, the Liberal Democrats began winning local council elections and forming strong opposition to Labour's ruling groups. LibDems would take control of Burnley Council in 2008 having gained 5 Labour wards after successive minor gains in previous elections. Parallel to this local success, Gordon Birtwistle's local profile helped lift his party's fortunes in the parliamentary seat, taking the party of second place in 2005 and ultimately gaining the constituency in 2010. 

On the other side of th the political spectrum was an increasing unease amongst some voters at the changing demography of the town and the wider borough. Burnley's Asian population is higher than the regional and national average and following EU expansion into central and eastern Europe, its white non-British population grew at a significant rate. In 2001, the BNP received 11% of the vote at the general election here and had 7 seats on the local council by 2003. UKIP won seats in the Padiham area at both local and County level, and race-riots which had dominated nearby Oldham soon spread across to Lancashire, Burnley in particular. Labour, rightly or wrongly associated with not always listening to concerns about immigration from both white and BAME countries, took the brunt of their voters' displeasure. 

Burnley is a borough of many scattered towns across from the Accrington suburbs to the Pennine hills. This is a borough of owner-occupiers, and even today, little in the way of gentrification. Improved railway links to Manchester will, eventually, do good on the promise of making places like Burnley into affordable commuter towns, but rail links are only one part of a complex economic jigsaw. The central wards of Burnley are not the most economically confident, and while the stone terraces remain, so do rabbit warrens of 60s and 70s estates and boarded up businesses. Although there are manufacturing jobs here, local employment is increasingly retail, services and education. Growth in the manufacturing industry came most recently from the aerospace sector, including Safran Necelles, although job cuts of significant size are threatened.  Burnley borough has strong commuter flows between it and its neighbours, including Pendle to the north. Eleven of Burnley's wards received assisted area status funding. Using 2018 figures, the borough of Burnley has 15% of its working age population in receipt of out of work benefits, one of the highest figures in Great Britain. 

The parliamentary seat is now held by the Conservatives. The party was down at 10% at the 2005 election, marked by the intervention of a local independent. Things changed after the Brexit referendum. Two-thirds of Burnley voted Leave and by no coincidence did the Tory vote leapfrog the others in 2017 and 2019. Labour's Julie Cooper held on in 2017 with a 7.5% swing against her, the second push two-years later was closer to 10%. The Brexit Party stood here, as it did against almost all Labour MPs, at by taking 8.6%, took almost point-for-point the amount Cooper lost. Antony Higginbotham is the first Conservative MP here since Gerald Arbuthnot in the 1910s, who was killed at the Somme. 

[The Bishop]

I wonder if, removing results clearly influenced by personal factors like Bassetlaw or Dudley N, this was actually Labour's worst 2019 loss anywhere. Not least because (unlike certain other supposed "surprise" Labour losses) the Tories really didn't expect to win it, fighting what appeared to many a rather half-hearted campaign.

(though your review might have mentioned that whilst *normally* safe for Labour the Tories nearly won in 1983, so last year wasn't totally unprecedented)

[Devil Wincarnate]

Once the territory of Kitty Ussher, career destroyed by the merits or demerits of Artex.

[bjornhattan]

Jun 4, 2020 11:07:14 GMT The Bishop said:

I wonder if, removing results clearly influenced by personal factors like Bassetlaw or Dudley N, this was actually Labour's worst 2019 loss anywhere. Not least because (unlike certain other supposed "surprise" Labour losses) the Tories really didn't expect to win it, fighting what appeared to many a rather half-hearted campaign.

(though your review might have mentioned that whilst *normally* safe for Labour the Tories nearly won in 1983, so last year wasn't totally unprecedented)

Redcar might be slightly worse - another seat which voted Lib Dem in 2010, voted heavily Leave at the referendum, and then became an extremely unexpected gain. The swing there was even larger than in Burnley, with a 22% majority overturned (as opposed to 16% here).

[Merseymike]

I think the problem is that we really don't know if these sort of seats are going to be one-off shocks, in the vein of Nottingham North or Walthamstow in 1983 going Tory, or whether is is a longer term and more decisive shift. It will take at least one more, maybe two elections to find out

[lancastrian]

Jun 4, 2020 12:13:40 GMT @barnabymarder said:

I'd have thought that rather than being a constituency of scattered towns it must surely be dominated by the main town of Burnley itself plus a few outer villages? Although I've never been

The town of Burnley makes up the vast majority of the constituency, I'd say 12 of the 15 wards, then there's the small town of Padiham and a few villages. 

Jun 4, 2020 12:23:23 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Once the territory of Kitty Ussher, career destroyed by the merits or demerits of Artex.

I think she might have lost anyway if she'd avoided the expenses scandal and run again. The big local problem for Labour at the time was the hospital, whilst being parachuted in from London was never great for Ussher's popularity, and IIRC her main home and family remained in London throughout her tenure as MP.

[Deleted]

Jun 4, 2020 12:44:00 GMT Merseymike said:

I think the problem is that we really don't know if these sort of seats are going to be one-off shocks, in the vein of Nottingham North or Walthamstow in 1983 going Tory, or whether is is a longer term and more decisive shift. It will take at least one more, maybe two elections to find out

I suspect that seats with expanding commuter demographics, which seem to include Bolsover, NE Derbys, apparently here and a few others will be more long-term shifts. Other seats - places like Blyth Valley and some of the Greater Manchester ones - will be marginal for a while and either stay that way permanently or move back towards Labour in the medium to long term.

[Sibboleth]

There is little point in speculating about the future, here or anywhere else. You will almost certainly be wrong and if you aren't it will be by accident and not skill.

[Merseymike]

Jun 4, 2020 14:23:38 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Jun 4, 2020 12:44:00 GMT Merseymike said:

I think the problem is that we really don't know if these sort of seats are going to be one-off shocks, in the vein of Nottingham North or Walthamstow in 1983 going Tory, or whether is is a longer term and more decisive shift. It will take at least one more, maybe two elections to find out

I suspect that seats with expanding commuter demographics, which seem to include Bolsover, NE Derbys, apparently here and a few others will be more long-term shifts. Other seats - places like Blyth Valley and some of the Greater Manchester ones - will be marginal for a while and either stay that way permanently or move back towards Labour in the medium to long term.

I wouldn't say Burnley is, really. Its renowned for having cheap housing, but that won't necessarily attract a commuting population

[Merseymike]

Jun 4, 2020 12:59:12 GMT lancastrian said:

Jun 4, 2020 12:23:23 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Once the territory of Kitty Ussher, career destroyed by the merits or demerits of Artex.

I think she might have lost anyway if she'd avoided the expenses scandal and run again. The big local problem for Labour at the time was the hospital, whilst being parachuted in from London was never great for Ussher's popularity, and IIRC her main home and family remained in London throughout her tenure as MP.

Yes - she had a young family and I don't think found the realities of being an MP for a seat with more than its fair share of social problems a particularly easy thing to juggle with the rest of her life. I don't think she actually enjoyed the job very much, and there is no evidence that she has tried to return to parliament anyway - she had announced that she wasn't standing again well before the expenses issues arose.
She is very much a policy wonk at heart - but I do have a bit more respect for her than some others as she trained and taught maths in an inner city school for 2 years before returning to policy wonkdom at Demos.

[owainsutton]

Jun 4, 2020 15:25:27 GMT Merseymike said:

Jun 4, 2020 12:59:12 GMT lancastrian said:

I think she might have lost anyway if she'd avoided the expenses scandal and run again. The big local problem for Labour at the time was the hospital, whilst being parachuted in from London was never great for Ussher's popularity, and IIRC her main home and family remained in London throughout her tenure as MP.

Yes - she had a young family and I don't think found the realities of being an MP for a seat with more than its fair share of social problems a particularly easy thing to juggle with the rest of her life. I don't think she actually enjoyed the job very much, and there is no evidence that she has tried to return to parliament anyway - she had announced that she wasn't standing again well before the expenses issues arose.
She is very much a policy wonk at heart - but I do have a bit more respect for her than some others as she trained and taught maths in an inner city school for 2 years before returning to policy wonkdom at Demos.

Burnley suffers from a big two-way commute pattern. Many people in the town have to drive to often badly-paid jobs elsewhere, while anyone working in the town but able to live in somewhere like Todmorden or Hebden Bridge often chooses that option.

[Merseymike]

Jun 4, 2020 16:41:57 GMT owainsutton said:

Jun 4, 2020 15:25:27 GMT Merseymike said:

Yes - she had a young family and I don't think found the realities of being an MP for a seat with more than its fair share of social problems a particularly easy thing to juggle with the rest of her life. I don't think she actually enjoyed the job very much, and there is no evidence that she has tried to return to parliament anyway - she had announced that she wasn't standing again well before the expenses issues arose.
She is very much a policy wonk at heart - but I do have a bit more respect for her than some others as she trained and taught maths in an inner city school for 2 years before returning to policy wonkdom at Demos.

Burnley suffers from a big two-way commute pattern. Many people in the town have to drive to often badly-paid jobs elsewhere, while anyone working in the town but able to live in somewhere like Todmorden or Hebden Bridge often chooses that option.

The people I knew who recently moved to Burnley used to live in Halifax and Todmorden and sold both houses to buy a larger and cheaper one. Neither are economically active for health reasons

[jamie]

Jun 4, 2020 14:23:38 GMT @europeanlefty said:

I suspect that seats with expanding commuter demographics, which seem to include Bolsover, NE Derbys, apparently here and a few others will be more long-term shifts. Other seats - places like Blyth Valley and some of the Greater Manchester ones - will be marginal for a while and either stay that way permanently or move back towards Labour in the medium to long term.

I agree that commuter belt seats are becoming demographically harder for Labour to win, but I would very much describe Blyth Valley as one of those seats. Parts of Cramlington are becoming the most posh commuter belt imaginable! 

[The Bishop]

Jun 4, 2020 15:25:27 GMT Merseymike said:

Jun 4, 2020 12:59:12 GMT lancastrian said:

I think she might have lost anyway if she'd avoided the expenses scandal and run again. The big local problem for Labour at the time was the hospital, whilst being parachuted in from London was never great for Ussher's popularity, and IIRC her main home and family remained in London throughout her tenure as MP.

Yes - she had a young family and I don't think found the realities of being an MP for a seat with more than its fair share of social problems a particularly easy thing to juggle with the rest of her life. I don't think she actually enjoyed the job very much, and there is no evidence that she has tried to return to parliament anyway - she had announced that she wasn't standing again well before the expenses issues arose.
She is very much a policy wonk at heart - but I do have a bit more respect for her than some others as she trained and taught maths in an inner city school for 2 years before returning to policy wonkdom at Demos.

Which makes it all the stranger she was seemingly so desperate to get into parliament originally - I recall the stitch-up in her favour before the 2005 GE (a crude one even by the standards of that time) attracting adverse comment in the genesis of this place (the Vote 2005 forum which sadly went "off air" a week before polling day)

So whilst I'm not totally lacking in sympathy, its also the case IMO that she was the architect of her own misfortunes to a large extent.

And the damage her time did to the Labour party locally was maybe never totally overcome.

[Merseymike]

Jun 5, 2020 11:57:12 GMT The Bishop said:

Jun 4, 2020 15:25:27 GMT Merseymike said:

Yes - she had a young family and I don't think found the realities of being an MP for a seat with more than its fair share of social problems a particularly easy thing to juggle with the rest of her life. I don't think she actually enjoyed the job very much, and there is no evidence that she has tried to return to parliament anyway - she had announced that she wasn't standing again well before the expenses issues arose.
She is very much a policy wonk at heart - but I do have a bit more respect for her than some others as she trained and taught maths in an inner city school for 2 years before returning to policy wonkdom at Demos.

Which makes it all the stranger she was seemingly so desperate to get into parliament originally - I recall the stitch-up in her favour before the 2005 GE (a crude one even by the standards of that time) attracting adverse comment in the genesis of this place (the Vote 2005 forum which sadly went "off air" a week before polling day)

So whilst I'm not totally lacking in sympathy, its also the case IMO that she was the architect of her own misfortunes to a large extent.

And the damage her time did to the Labour party locally was maybe never totally overcome.

I suppose its something you won't realise until you get there.
Tess Kingham, who was MP for Gloucester from 97-01, felt exactly the same, and said that she felt she had far more influence running a small charity focused on development issues than as a backbench MP, which she concluded to be a total waste of time.

[owainsutton]

One worthy piece of trivia: the single biggest customer, worldwide, of Benedictine liqueur is Burnley Miners Social Club. A taste that was developed by the East Lancs regiment in WW1, many of the injured men convalescing at the abbey from which it originates.

[The Bishop]

Jun 5, 2020 12:04:01 GMT Merseymike said:

Jun 5, 2020 11:57:12 GMT The Bishop said:

Which makes it all the stranger she was seemingly so desperate to get into parliament originally - I recall the stitch-up in her favour before the 2005 GE (a crude one even by the standards of that time) attracting adverse comment in the genesis of this place (the Vote 2005 forum which sadly went "off air" a week before polling day)

So whilst I'm not totally lacking in sympathy, its also the case IMO that she was the architect of her own misfortunes to a large extent.

And the damage her time did to the Labour party locally was maybe never totally overcome.

I suppose its something you won't realise until you get there.
Tess Kingham, who was MP for Gloucester from 97-01, felt exactly the same, and said that she felt she had far more influence running a small charity focused on development issues than as a backbench MP, which she concluded to be a total waste of time.

A few MPs (male as well as female) have sacked it off after a single term.

Ussher however reached the government front bench in short order (as was always of course the intention) but still evidently wasn't happy.

[ideal4radio]

Jun 5, 2020 13:40:24 GMT owainsutton said:

One worthy piece of trivia: the single biggest customer, worldwide, of Benedictine liqueur is Burnley Miners Social Club. A taste that was developed by the East Lancs regiment in WW1, many of the injured men convalescing at the abbey from which it originates.

   I understand the second biggest customer is Turf Moor, home of Burnley F.C. .... not being from Burnley but having lived here over 30 years, it always makes me smile each Christmas when the Burnley supermarkets devote a full aisle end to bottles of Benedictine, with the other aisle ends having the usual Gin/Whisky/Vodka offers .. there must be 60 cases of the stuff piled on the aisle ends .... 

[ideal4radio]

Jun 4, 2020 15:09:12 GMT Merseymike said:

Jun 4, 2020 14:23:38 GMT @europeanlefty said:

I suspect that seats with expanding commuter demographics, which seem to include Bolsover, NE Derbys, apparently here and a few others will be more long-term shifts. Other seats - places like Blyth Valley and some of the Greater Manchester ones - will be marginal for a while and either stay that way permanently or move back towards Labour in the medium to long term.

I wouldn't say Burnley is, really. Its renowned for having cheap housing, but that won't necessarily attract a commuting population

     I would agree with that, but there's been a lot of new builds going up over the past 5-10 years. The housing stock is vastly improved compared to 30 years ago, and the reintroduction of the direct train route into Manchester in 2015 ( 49 minutes ) has helped, and you can travel direct to Leeds ( 1hr 02 minutes ) or Preston ( 33 minutes ). The M65 dissects the Town, and Leeds/Bradford, Liverpool & Manchester Airports are all less than an hour away ...

I recently shared an Estate Agent's " blurb " for a 4 Bedroomed Detached house in a good area of Burnley, ( Double Garage, En-suite, Downstairs W/C, Utility room, Conservatory etc ) with 4 old friends and asked them to price it up if it was near them. £1m+ in Twickenham, £900k in Berkhamsted, Herts, £850k just outside Bath, and £775 - £800k in Caterham, Surrey were the replies. In Burnley, " Offers invited above £300,000 " ....   


 

[Merseymike]

Jun 7, 2020 16:47:55 GMT ideal4radio said:

Jun 4, 2020 15:09:12 GMT Merseymike said:

I wouldn't say Burnley is, really. Its renowned for having cheap housing, but that won't necessarily attract a commuting population

     I would agree with that, but there's been a lot of new builds going up over the past 5-10 years. The housing stock is vastly improved compared to 30 years ago, and the reintroduction of the direct train route into Manchester in 2015 ( 49 minutes ) has helped, and you can travel direct to Leeds ( 1hr 02 minutes ) or Preston ( 33 minutes ). The M65 dissects the Town, and Leeds/Bradford, Liverpool & Manchester Airports are all less than an hour away ...

I recently shared an Estate Agent's " blurb " for a 4 Bedroomed Detached house in a good area of Burnley, ( Double Garage, En-suite, Downstairs W/C, Utility room, Conservatory etc ) with 4 old friends and asked them to price it up if it was near them. £1m+ in Twickenham, £900k in Berkhamsted, Herts, £850k just outside Bath, and £775 - £800k in Caterham, Surrey were the replies. In Burnley, " Offers invited above £300,000 " ....   


 

There's even more of a difference when you compare 'period' housing, the larger properties. The cost of such properies in London or the south-east compared to much of the north is ridiculous