clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,340 
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 10, 2022 7:29:27 GMT
Must be the SNP’s worst poll in a while? The last time they polled 38% was June 2019, the last time they polled less was March 2019. Of course it's a weird poll, did they include 16 and 17 year olds, where is the missing 11% etc, so I wouldn't put much stock in it yet. I wonder if there's a typo somewhere in the figures, or the figures include undecided voters. If it's the latter, and we assume a 2% score for others, then it would be SNP 42, Lab 26, Con 20, LDm 5, Grn 4 - which would be in a similar ballpark to the recent Survation poll. |
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Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 10, 2022 7:39:28 GMT
The last time they polled 38% was June 2019, the last time they polled less was March 2019. Of course it's a weird poll, did they include 16 and 17 year olds, where is the missing 11% etc, so I wouldn't put much stock in it yet. I wonder if there's a typo somewhere in the figures, or the figures include undecided voters. If it's the latter, and we assume a 2% score for others, then it would be SNP 42, Lab 26, Con 20, LDm 5, Grn 4 - which would be in a similar ballpark to the recent Survation poll. I think your right, someone at the herald has made a mistake somewhere, the article says the SNP is on 38% but then goes in to say they've dropped 6% points from the last poll, last poll had them in 48% so I think there actually on 42%, bloody shambles the print media are in Scotland. |
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 10, 2022 8:32:49 GMT
Maybe if the Tories didn't spend so much energy in every campaign for the last 8 years banging on about how they would both sell out the union they might? That is a very good point and not much sign of them progressing beyond those tactics either The last thing the Tories actually want is more Lab and LD councillors.. They much prefer the SNP. Just like the Lab-Con cartel in England |
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finsobruce
Labour
Everyone ought to go careful in a city like this.
Posts: 36,668
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 10, 2022 9:13:12 GMT
That is a very good point and not much sign of them progressing beyond those tactics either The last thing the Tories actually want is more Lab and LD councillors.. They much prefer the SNP. Just like the Lab-Con cartel in England You seem to be mis using the word 'cartel'. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 31,107
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 10, 2022 9:30:58 GMT
No, the published VI figures virtually certainly won't include undecided voters.
This almost never happens in polling these days, and on the rare occasions it does this is always explicitly stated.
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 10, 2022 18:36:16 GMT
The last thing the Tories actually want is more Lab and LD councillors.. They much prefer the SNP. Just like the Lab-Con cartel in England You seem to be mis using the word 'cartel'. Seems pretty accurate to me. |
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finsobruce
Labour
Everyone ought to go careful in a city like this.
Posts: 36,668
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 10, 2022 20:38:16 GMT
Hegemony (like the previous Liberal/Tory set up) possibly, cartel - no. |
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 12, 2022 10:30:23 GMT
Hegemony (like the previous Liberal/Tory set up) possibly, cartel - no. FPTP is supported by the Con-Lab cartel which has been largely successful outside Scotland for 100 years. The aim of both partners in the cartel is to establish hegemony for themselves, but exchanging it is better than losing the chance. If you are referring to the 2010 coalition, that would surely only be a hegemony if the arrangement was permanent so that the two parties were essentially one, like that between Lab and Co-op. I would say the coalition years were one of the least hegemonic periods since the war. |
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Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 12, 2022 11:30:30 GMT
Any way back to scottish polls
BMG have fianlly released there Data and as i suspect the Herald could not not report there own data if they tried.
Independence
no=53%
yes=47%
Holyrood Constituency (CHANGE FROM LAST POLL APRIL 2021)
SNP=44%(-5%)
Lab=22%(+1%)
Con=21%(+2%)
lib=8%(-1%)
oth=4%(+4%)
Holyrood Regional list (CHANGE FROM LAST POLL APRIL 2021)
SNP=33%(-4%)
Lab=22%(+5%)
Con=20%(-2%)
Grn=10%(+1%)
lib=8%(-%)
Ref=2%(+2%)
Alb=3%(-1%)
oth=2%(+2%)
Westminster (CHANGE FROM LAST POLL APRIL 2021)
SNP=42%(-6%)
Lab=26%(+6%)
Con=19%(-1%)
lib=6%(-1%)
Grn=4%(+1%)
oth=2%(+1%)
Some thoughts, SNP do seem to now be dropping back slightly, Labour are on the march, but clearly there is a divergence between Westminster and Holyrood taking place. Conservatives have bottom out at 20%, which will be crucial of they want to retain between 200-250 councillors come May.
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xenon
Non-Aligned
Posts: 95
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Post by xenon on May 1, 2022 7:45:14 GMT
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Post by Smartie on May 2, 2022 7:53:09 GMT
It will be interesting to see if Labour outpoll the Tories by as much as 3% - given Tory strength where Labour is exceptionally weak, it could mean Labour gains in the Central Belt, Ayrshire etc |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 6,673
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Post by cogload on May 3, 2022 23:51:54 GMT
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xenon
Non-Aligned
Posts: 95
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Post by xenon on May 4, 2022 6:20:43 GMT
It's certainly not looking good for the Conservatives tomorrow if this is accurate. The low SNP score on the list vote is interesting as well, so low in fact that the SNP list vote plus the Green is actually less than the SNP constituency vote, so they must be leaking a small proportion to other parties. If I had to project this into local results, I would guess something like: SNP 37% Labour 23% Conservatives 19% Independents and others: 8% Liberal Democrats 7% Greens 6% |
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,340
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Post by clyde1998 on May 4, 2022 8:41:58 GMT
It's certainly not looking good for the Conservatives tomorrow if this is accurate. The low SNP score on the list vote is interesting as well, so low in fact that the SNP list vote plus the Green is actually less than the SNP constituency vote, so they must be leaking a small proportion to other parties. Alba were 3% (+1) in the poll, which may explain the difference. |
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Post by jollyroger93 on May 25, 2022 20:52:38 GMT
Yougov independence poll
No=55%
Yes=45%
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 2,056
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 25, 2022 20:57:31 GMT
Yougov independence poll No=55% Yes=45% Party like it's September 2014! |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 6,673
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Post by cogload on May 26, 2022 7:59:48 GMT
Yougov independence poll No=55% Yes=45% After Brexit, covid, Johnson, the works and it..hasn't shifted.. |
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 736
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Post by msc on May 26, 2022 8:20:04 GMT
Yougov independence poll No=55% Yes=45% After Brexit, covid, Johnson, the works and it..hasn't shifted.. "Don't care" would win in a landslide for most Scots imo. Many of us only think about the mythical IndyRef2 whenever the SNP or the Scottish Tories bang on about it, for a second, and then turn to more pressing issues. (Note the Union may split but I think most of us will be dead by then.) |
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Merseymike
Independent
Don't vote. It only encourages them.
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Post by Merseymike on May 26, 2022 8:24:26 GMT
After Brexit, covid, Johnson, the works and it..hasn't shifted.. "Don't care" would win in a landslide for most Scots imo. Many of us only think about the mythical IndyRef2 whenever the SNP or the Scottish Tories bang on about it, for a second, and then turn to more pressing issues. (Note the Union may split but I think most of us will be dead by then.) However there does seem to be a correlation between SNP voting and desire for independence which has the effect of keeping them in permanent power, irrespective of their mistakes and shortcomings. Which doesn't suggest" don't care" is uppermost. |
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stb12
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,278
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Post by stb12 on May 26, 2022 8:54:14 GMT
"Don't care" would win in a landslide for most Scots imo. Many of us only think about the mythical IndyRef2 whenever the SNP or the Scottish Tories bang on about it, for a second, and then turn to more pressing issues. (Note the Union may split but I think most of us will be dead by then.) However there does seem to be a correlation between SNP voting and desire for independence which has the effect of keeping them in permanent power, irrespective of their mistakes and shortcomings. Which doesn't suggest" don't care" is uppermost. A lot of Scots seem to just default to being pro-independence these days even if they don’t really consider it a priority in their life and rarely talk about it I know because i have friends that are like that |
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