CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on May 26, 2022 17:56:38 GMT
Good observations but can’t really be good for the Yes side? That kind of public attitude makes it viable for Westminster to keep up the strategy of ignoring or saying no to Section 30 orders as it kicks the can down the road indefinitely It can't be good - at least not in the short-to-medium term. I think the strategy of publicly stating we'll only have a referendum with a Section 30 order was a huge mistake, as there's little the Scottish Government can do to force Westminster's had; if the Scottish Government was seen as having credibility in terms of holding a referendum without Westminster's consent, then Westminster would have to consider agreeing to a Section 30 order - effectively let us have a referendum or argue against it in the Supreme Court. If you're not going to try and force Westminster's hand, the SNP would probably be better, in the long term, to say we're not going to have a referendum, let attention fade from the constitution and reapproach it in the future when people aren't so embedded as they are now - even if that leads to a drop in SNP support right now. There have been some questions as to whether the current Scottish Government actually want a referendum, as the current situation ensures power for the SNP. This has also helped the Conservatives win constituency seats, as they're the primary antithesis to independence and the SNP in a large number of seats. However it's bad for everyone to remain in this limbo for a prolonged period. I think the refusal of Sarwar to allow pacts, which, in effect, has led to minority Labour control in a number of councils with tacit Tory support, positions Labour as the antithesis of independence and the SNP in a large number of seats, which is a greater worry for the SNP, as Labour are the former home of many unionists who now vote Tory AND the former home of many recent SNP voters. If Labour look like threatening to take power in Westminster, with the Tories clearly in 3rd place in Scotland, Labour could pick up a lot of seats. The biggest fear/danger for the SNP is that they become the Parti Québécois, never gaining independence and, eventually, overtaken at home.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on May 27, 2022 8:14:17 GMT
It can't be good - at least not in the short-to-medium term. I think the strategy of publicly stating we'll only have a referendum with a Section 30 order was a huge mistake, as there's little the Scottish Government can do to force Westminster's had; if the Scottish Government was seen as having credibility in terms of holding a referendum without Westminster's consent, then Westminster would have to consider agreeing to a Section 30 order - effectively let us have a referendum or argue against it in the Supreme Court. If you're not going to try and force Westminster's hand, the SNP would probably be better, in the long term, to say we're not going to have a referendum, let attention fade from the constitution and reapproach it in the future when people aren't so embedded as they are now - even if that leads to a drop in SNP support right now. There have been some questions as to whether the current Scottish Government actually want a referendum, as the current situation ensures power for the SNP. This has also helped the Conservatives win constituency seats, as they're the primary antithesis to independence and the SNP in a large number of seats. However it's bad for everyone to remain in this limbo for a prolonged period. I think the refusal of Sarwar to allow pacts, which, in effect, has led to minority Labour control in a number of councils with tacit Tory support, positions Labour as the antithesis of independence and the SNP in a large number of seats, which is a greater worry for the SNP, as Labour are the former home of many unionists who now vote Tory AND the former home of many recent SNP voters. If Labour look like threatening to take power in Westminster, with the Tories clearly in 3rd place in Scotland, Labour could pick up a lot of seats. The biggest fear/danger for the SNP is that they become the Parti Québécois, never gaining independence and, eventually, overtaken at home. Labour are certainly in a better position now than at any point since 2014 (excluding a brief period around the 2017 election). Labour aren't a million miles away in a large number of key constituencies (about 16 seats within a 10% swing at Westminster; 14 seats at Holyrood), so with a more positive outlook, more perceived relevance and more voters willing to consider voting Labour there are a good number of target seats. Labour also have a much higher limit than the Conservatives: the Tories got ~29% at their peak in 2017, which was basically their ceiling, while Labour got ~2pp less despite a large percentage of their potential vote going to the SNP. The PQ shows what happens once the electorate get bored with constitutional talk if the party is unable to move beyond that. They completely shot themselves in the foot in 2014 by calling an early election and making a referendum an issue when the electorate had no interest. I note they're polling fifth in Quebec at the moment (although I don't know how solid the Conservative figures will be come the October election - as they've seem to have only exploded since the Covid debate); even Quebec Solidaire are clearly ahead of them now, who are analogous to the Greens in the Scottish context. Sawar's strategy of distancing himself from the Conservatives at a local level, despite having implicit support from them (over the SNP at least), will go someway of alleviating the 'Better Together coalition' image a lot of people gained of the party.
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Post by andrew on Jul 2, 2022 21:29:05 GMT
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jul 3, 2022 5:47:00 GMT
Guess which poll the sainted Sturgeon highlighted? 🤔
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Aug 16, 2022 18:20:22 GMT
Survation have done a poll recently which asked VI questions: so far only the questions based on the energy crisis have been published, but from the crosstabs include responses by each VI allowing for the VI to be calculated. These are subject to change - especially due to rounding:
Westminster VI SNP 47 (+2 on March) Lab 26 (-1) Con 17 (-2) LDm 8 (+2) Oth 2 (nc)
Holyrood VI SNP 47/35 (+1/+1 on March) Lab 25/22 (nc/-1) Con 18/16 (-2/-3) LDm 8/9 (+1/+1) Oth 3/19 (+1/+3)
Independence VI No 52 (-1 on March) Yes 48 (+1)
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 16, 2022 18:28:54 GMT
Survation have done a poll recently which asked VI questions: so far only the questions based on the energy crisis have been published, but from the crosstabs include responses by each VI allowing for the VI to be calculated. These are subject to change - especially due to rounding: Westminster VISNP 47 (+2 on March) Lab 26 (-1) Con 17 (-2) LDm 8 (+2) Oth 2 (nc) Holyrood VISNP 47/35 (+1/+1 on March) Lab 25/22 (nc/-1) Con 18/16 (-2/-3) LDm 8/9 (+1/+1) Oth 3/19 (+1/+3) Independence VINo 52 (-1 on March) Yes 48 (+1) If correct, pretty much slack water, which is good for Scottish Labour as it confirms their firm second place. It coukd make politics far more interesting in Scotland.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 16, 2022 21:05:16 GMT
Westminster VISNP 47 (+2 on March) Lab 26 (-1) Con 17 (-2)LDm 8 (+2) Oth 2 (nc) Holyrood VISNP 47/35 (+1/+1 on March) Lab 25/22 (nc/-1) Con 18/16 (-2/-3)LDm 8/9 (+1/+1) Oth 3/19 (+1/+3) That’s reaching pre-2016 levels of support for the Conservatives. If repeated at an election it would be interesting to see the changes in the distribution of their support (they’re presumably losing lots of support to Labour in the places they gained it in the first place, while it’s hard to see where their rural unionist vote would go these days).
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Post by london(ex)tory on Aug 18, 2022 8:12:15 GMT
Survation have done a poll recently which asked VI questions: so far only the questions based on the energy crisis have been published, but from the crosstabs include responses by each VI allowing for the VI to be calculated. These are subject to change - especially due to rounding: Westminster VISNP 47 (+2 on March) Lab 26 (-1) Con 17 (-2) LDm 8 (+2) Oth 2 (nc) Holyrood VISNP 47/35 (+1/+1 on March) Lab 25/22 (nc/-1) Con 18/16 (-2/-3) LDm 8/9 (+1/+1) Oth 3/19 (+1/+3) Independence VINo 52 (-1 on March) Yes 48 (+1) Do you have a figure for the Greens on regional list VI for Holyrood?
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Aug 21, 2022 22:10:23 GMT
Survation have done a poll recently which asked VI questions: so far only the questions based on the energy crisis have been published, but from the crosstabs include responses by each VI allowing for the VI to be calculated. These are subject to change - especially due to rounding: Westminster VISNP 47 (+2 on March) Lab 26 (-1) Con 17 (-2) LDm 8 (+2) Oth 2 (nc) Holyrood VISNP 47/35 (+1/+1 on March) Lab 25/22 (nc/-1) Con 18/16 (-2/-3) LDm 8/9 (+1/+1) Oth 3/19 (+1/+3) Independence VINo 52 (-1 on March) Yes 48 (+1) Do you have a figure for the Greens on regional list VI for Holyrood? I'm afraid not. There wasn't a Green crosstab in the data tables, despite them almost certainly being on a higher vote share than the Liberal Democrats. I'd imagine they'd be around 13% though.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 5, 2022 18:48:43 GMT
Two new ones, one from ComRes and the other YouGov.
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 5, 2022 19:50:17 GMT
Signs that Labour now has momentum in Scotland. If the party can push SNP support down to the 37% polled in 2017, Labour could yet win circa 15 seats next time in Scotland.
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Post by afleitch on Oct 5, 2022 20:14:10 GMT
In line with the subsamples. And in line with patterns in rUK with direct Con to Lab switching. Tories are actually lower than I thought they would be.
SNP haven't budged. Not really that bad at all.
Yes at 49% with both.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 5, 2022 20:22:29 GMT
Interesting that Labour are doing clearly worse in the Scottish Parliament question (presumably switching to Greens/Tories) while the Tories do a bit better. The Scottish Tory brand still counts for something?
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 5, 2022 20:34:04 GMT
Interesting that Labour are doing clearly worse in the Scottish Parliament question (presumably switching to Greens/Tories) while the Tories do a bit better. The Scottish Tory brand still counts for something? Different electoral system and the presence of the Greens? And the likelihood of having greater influence?
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Post by stb12 on Oct 5, 2022 21:13:10 GMT
You still have to consider the different dynamics of anti-SNP tactical voting and the Tories are the best option for that in several seats
However if things remain as bad as they are for the government then I doubt even that can save them any Scottish seats at Westminster
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 5, 2022 22:18:30 GMT
In line with the subsamples. And in line with patterns in rUK with direct Con to Lab switching. Tories are actually lower than I thought they would be. SNP haven't budged. Not really that bad at all. Yes at 49% with both. With a big swing to Labour, I would be interested to see whether, with the Tories so obviously no longer the main opposition in Scotland, some soft Nat (former Labour) votes will not swing to Labour at a General Election to deliver a Labour victory.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 5, 2022 22:44:58 GMT
With 21% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to undecided, there's still potential for the Conservatives to make a slight recovery in Scotland by the next election (especially in areas where it's a SNP/Conservative contest). From these tweets, it seems the Labour surge across the UK has had little to no impact on SNP voters/independence supporters which implies it won't make a huge difference the SNP seat numbers. Places like East Lothian would no doubt go Labour on these figures, but a number of the seats they gained in 2017 could remain SNP due to the gap between Labour and the SNP being higher - albeit with more potential of tactical voting benefiting Labour (also, areas like Glasgow or Coatbridge were probably among those where Corbyn was a vote winner - so it's hard to tell where the 2017/19 percentages are useful to base anything on).
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 5, 2022 23:06:03 GMT
With 21% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to undecided, there's still potential for the Conservatives to make a slight recovery in Scotland by the next election (especially in areas where it's a SNP/Conservative contest). From these tweets, it seems the Labour surge across the UK has had little to no impact on SNP voters/independence supporters which implies it won't make a huge difference the SNP seat numbers. Places like East Lothian would no doubt go Labour on these figures, but a number of the seats they gained in 2017 could remain SNP due to the gap between Labour and the SNP being higher - albeit with more potential of tactical voting benefiting Labour (also, areas like Glasgow or Coatbridge were probably among those where Corbyn was a vote winner - so it's hard to tell where the 2017/19 percentages are useful to base anything on). Final polls in the 2017 election recorded the SNP in the 39% - 43% range - rather than the 36.9% outcome. That could well happen again.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 5, 2022 23:12:36 GMT
With 21% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to undecided, there's still potential for the Conservatives to make a slight recovery in Scotland by the next election (especially in areas where it's a SNP/Conservative contest). From these tweets, it seems the Labour surge across the UK has had little to no impact on SNP voters/independence supporters which implies it won't make a huge difference the SNP seat numbers. Places like East Lothian would no doubt go Labour on these figures, but a number of the seats they gained in 2017 could remain SNP due to the gap between Labour and the SNP being higher - albeit with more potential of tactical voting benefiting Labour (also, areas like Glasgow or Coatbridge were probably among those where Corbyn was a vote winner - so it's hard to tell where the 2017/19 percentages are useful to base anything on). Final polls in the 2017 election recorded the SNP in the 39% - 43% range - rather than the 36.9% outcome. That could well happen again. IIRC, there were two major factors for that: an overestimation of 2015 SNP voters' turnout relative to other parties and undecided unionist voters. The latter is probably likely to happen again, the former is much less likely if the 'independence election' concept is followed through with - the SNP really failed to fire up its base in 2017; the worst SNP campaign in a major election where the SNP were relevant since perhaps 2003. Without seeing the data tables it's hard to be anything near accurate, but it's likely the SNP would be around 2pp lower in an election held today.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 5, 2022 23:24:42 GMT
IIRC, there were too major factors for that: an overestimation of 2015 SNP voters' turnout relative to other parties and undecided unionist voters. The latter is probably likely to happen again, the former is much less likely if the 'independence election' concept is followed through with - the SNP really failed to fire up its base in 2017; the worst SNP campaign in a major election where the SNP were relevant since perhaps 2003. Without seeing the data tables it's hard to be anything near accurate, but it's likely the SNP would be around 2pp lower in an election held today. Agreed, and you could see the SNP enthusiasm gap by their anaemic performance in the May local elections. This year they actually did a bit better, and the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections where they focused on independence also produced a similar result to the polling. Of course past errors cannot always predict future ones, but I’d expect more accurate polling next general election (which fwiw, I think will see more SNP-Labour switching by election day).
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