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Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 12, 2022 11:30:30 GMT
Any way back to scottish polls
BMG have fianlly released there Data and as i suspect the Herald could not not report there own data if they tried.
Independence
no=53% yes=47%
Holyrood Constituency (CHANGE FROM LAST POLL APRIL 2021)
SNP=44%(-5%) Lab=22%(+1%) Con=21%(+2%) lib=8%(-1%) oth=4%(+4%)
Holyrood Regional list (CHANGE FROM LAST POLL APRIL 2021)
SNP=33%(-4%) Lab=22%(+5%) Con=20%(-2%) Grn=10%(+1%) lib=8%(-%) Ref=2%(+2%) Alb=3%(-1%) oth=2%(+2%)
Westminster (CHANGE FROM LAST POLL APRIL 2021)
SNP=42%(-6%) Lab=26%(+6%) Con=19%(-1%) lib=6%(-1%) Grn=4%(+1%) oth=2%(+1%)
Some thoughts, SNP do seem to now be dropping back slightly, Labour are on the march, but clearly there is a divergence between Westminster and Holyrood taking place. Conservatives have bottom out at 20%, which will be crucial of they want to retain between 200-250 councillors come May.
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xenon
Non-Aligned
Posts: 242
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Post by xenon on May 1, 2022 7:45:14 GMT
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Smartie
Labour
Enter your message here...
Posts: 782
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Post by Smartie on May 2, 2022 7:53:09 GMT
It will be interesting to see if Labour outpoll the Tories by as much as 3% - given Tory strength where Labour is exceptionally weak, it could mean Labour gains in the Central Belt, Ayrshire etc
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,010
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Post by cogload on May 3, 2022 23:51:54 GMT
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xenon
Non-Aligned
Posts: 242
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Post by xenon on May 4, 2022 6:20:43 GMT
It's certainly not looking good for the Conservatives tomorrow if this is accurate. The low SNP score on the list vote is interesting as well, so low in fact that the SNP list vote plus the Green is actually less than the SNP constituency vote, so they must be leaking a small proportion to other parties. If I had to project this into local results, I would guess something like: SNP 37% Labour 23% Conservatives 19% Independents and others: 8% Liberal Democrats 7% Greens 6%
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on May 4, 2022 8:41:58 GMT
It's certainly not looking good for the Conservatives tomorrow if this is accurate. The low SNP score on the list vote is interesting as well, so low in fact that the SNP list vote plus the Green is actually less than the SNP constituency vote, so they must be leaking a small proportion to other parties. Alba were 3% (+1) in the poll, which may explain the difference.
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Post by jollyroger93 on May 25, 2022 20:52:38 GMT
Yougov independence poll
No=55% Yes=45%
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,043
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 25, 2022 20:57:31 GMT
Yougov independence poll No=55% Yes=45% Party like it's September 2014!
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,010
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Post by cogload on May 26, 2022 7:59:48 GMT
Yougov independence poll No=55% Yes=45% After Brexit, covid, Johnson, the works and it..hasn't shifted..
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 859
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Post by msc on May 26, 2022 8:20:04 GMT
Yougov independence poll No=55% Yes=45% After Brexit, covid, Johnson, the works and it..hasn't shifted.. "Don't care" would win in a landslide for most Scots imo. Many of us only think about the mythical IndyRef2 whenever the SNP or the Scottish Tories bang on about it, for a second, and then turn to more pressing issues. (Note the Union may split but I think most of us will be dead by then.)
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Post by Merseymike on May 26, 2022 8:24:26 GMT
After Brexit, covid, Johnson, the works and it..hasn't shifted.. "Don't care" would win in a landslide for most Scots imo. Many of us only think about the mythical IndyRef2 whenever the SNP or the Scottish Tories bang on about it, for a second, and then turn to more pressing issues. (Note the Union may split but I think most of us will be dead by then.) However there does seem to be a correlation between SNP voting and desire for independence which has the effect of keeping them in permanent power, irrespective of their mistakes and shortcomings. Which doesn't suggest" don't care" is uppermost.
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Post by stb12 on May 26, 2022 8:54:14 GMT
"Don't care" would win in a landslide for most Scots imo. Many of us only think about the mythical IndyRef2 whenever the SNP or the Scottish Tories bang on about it, for a second, and then turn to more pressing issues. (Note the Union may split but I think most of us will be dead by then.) However there does seem to be a correlation between SNP voting and desire for independence which has the effect of keeping them in permanent power, irrespective of their mistakes and shortcomings. Which doesn't suggest" don't care" is uppermost. A lot of Scots seem to just default to being pro-independence these days even if they don’t really consider it a priority in their life and rarely talk about it I know because i have friends that are like that
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Post by jollyroger93 on May 26, 2022 9:16:17 GMT
Yougov independence poll No=55% Yes=45% After Brexit, covid, Johnson, the works and it..hasn't shifted.. Or flip it, after Sturgeon, ferry gate, highest drug deaths in Europe, declining health, education, poor economic management, sex pest gate..... they still haven't shifted the dial.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on May 26, 2022 10:48:12 GMT
*Breathe in*
YouGov - 18-23 May 22 Westminster VI SNP 46 (-2 on Nov 21) Lab 22 (+4) Con 19 (-1) LDm 6 (nc) Grn 3 (nc) RUK 1 (-1) Oth 2 (nc)
Full before turnout weighting: SNP 37 (+3), Lab 18 (+5), Con 15 (+1), LDm 5 (nc), Grn 3 (nc), RUK 1 (-1), Oth 2 (+1), WNV 3 (-7), DK 14 (-3), Ref 2 (nc)
Holyrood Constituency VI SNP 47 (-1 on Nov 21) Lab 23 (+4) Con 18 (-3) Grn 2 (nc) Oth 3 (nc)
Full before turnout weighting: SNP 35 (-1), Lab 17 (+2), Con 13 (-2), LDm 5 (-1), Oth 4 (nc), WNV 9 (nc), DK 13 (nc), Ref 3 (+1)
Holyrood List VI SNP 39 (+1 on Nov 21) Lab 21 (+2) Con 18 (-1) Grn 10 (-1) LDm 8 (+1) Alba 2 (+1) RUK 1 (-1) UKIP 0 (-1) AFU 0 (-1) Oth 1 (nc)
Full before turnout weighting: SNP 30 (+1), Lab 16 (+2), Con 13 (-1), Grn 8 (nc), LDm 6 (nc), RUK 1 (nc), Alba 1 (+1), UKIP 0 (-1), AFU 0 (-1), Oth 1 (nc), WNV 8 (-1), DK 13 (-1), Ref 2 (nc)
Independence VI Yes 45 (-2 on Nov 21) No 55 (+2)
Full: Yes 38 (-2), No 46 (nc), WNV 4 (nc), DK 11 (+2), Ref 2 (nc)
In principle, do you think there should or should not be a referendum on Scottish independence....?
This year
Should be a referendum 18 (-3 on Nov 21) Should not be a referendum 71 (+3) Don't know 11 (nc)
In 2023 Should be a referendum 28 (+1 on Nov 21) Should not be a referendum 59 (-1) Don't know 13 (nc)
In the next 5 years Should be a referendum 42 (-4 on Nov 21) Should not be a referendum 41 (nc) Don't know 17 (+4)
Thinking back over Nicola Sturgeon's time as First Minister, do you think she has been a good or bad leader for Scotland? Very good 21 Fairly good 27 Neither good nor bad 15 Fairly bad 11 Very bad 21 Don't know 5
Do you believe Scotland has become a better or worse place to live since Nicola Sturgeon became leader in 2014, or is it much the same? A better place to live 28 A worse place to live 32 Stayed much the same 31 Don't know 9
Again, thinking back over Nicola Sturgeon's time as First Minister, which, if any, of the following do you think has been her biggest achievement? Handling the pandemic 38 Introducing the baby box 10 Furthering the case of independence 4 Improving Scotland's economy 3 Improving Scotland's health service 2 Improving Scotland's schools and education 1 Improving Scotland's police and justice system 1 Something else 3 I don't think she has achieved anything 28
To what extent, if at all, do you trust Nicola Sturgeon to make the right decisions on how to spend taxpayers' money? Trust a lot 12 Trust a fair amount 29 Do not trust very much 20 Do not trust at all 28 Don't know 11
Thinking about Nicola Sturgeon's time as First Minister... Do you think she has... ...worried too much about outside opinions 13 ...not paid enough attention to outside opinions 28 ...got the balance about right 36 Don't know 23
Thinking about Nicola Sturgeon's time as First Minister... Do you think she has... ...spent too much time on the issue of Scottish Independence 55 ...not spent enough time on the issue of Scottish Independence 10 ...got the balance about right 24 Don't know 11
Thinking about the image of Scotland that Nicola Sturgeon presents to the world, do you think her Government makes Scotland look... Self-confident or insecure? Self-confident 45 Insecure 24 Neither 17 Don't know 14
Outward or inward looking? Outward-looking 32 Inward-looking 33 Neither 15 Don't know 19
Adventurous or cautious? Adventurous 21 Cautious 29 Neither 33 Don't know 17
If Nicola Sturgeon were to no longer be SNP leader, who would be the best replacement? Ian Blackford 7 (+1 on Nov 21) Kate Forbes 6 (nc) Joanna Cherry 5 (+1) Humza Yousef 3 (-3) Angus Robertson 3 (nc) Alex Salmond(?) 3 (nc) John Swinney 3 (-2) Michael Matheson 1 (+1) Stewart Hosie 1 (+1) Keith Brown 0 (-2) None of these 22 (nc) Don't know 47 (+5)
*Breathe out*
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Post by Merseymike on May 26, 2022 10:59:34 GMT
Obviously not really an issue right now but there isn't a clear successor to someone who has very much dominated her party, as did her predecessor.
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Post by stb12 on May 26, 2022 11:12:48 GMT
Pretty clear majority against a referendum next year there
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on May 26, 2022 11:22:19 GMT
Obviously not really an issue right now but there isn't a clear successor to someone who has very much dominated her party, as did her predecessor. That's something that will be interesting going forward. A lot of parties have imploded once a dominant leader has stepped aside - UKIP springs straight to mind - as people were voting more for the leader than the party itself. Without a clear replacement, Sturgeon staying on longer than she should which ironically could make the issue worse. However that being said, Mark Drakeford wasn't too well known among the general public prior to him becoming First Minister of Wales and once people saw him viewed him fairly positively; if anything being unknown maybe helped disassociate him from the previous Labour leadership in Wales - despite being a cabinet minister previously.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on May 26, 2022 11:26:41 GMT
Pretty clear majority against a referendum next year there Something I've noticed in the polling for a while is people say they don't want a referendum imminently (within the next 12-18 months), but soften when talking about five years in the future - but no matter when the poll is taken the trend stays the same. I'm fairly certain if you looked at similar polls from five years ago, they'd show basically the same thing. I'm guessing this is a result of the further away it is, the more hypothetical it becomes.
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Post by stb12 on May 26, 2022 14:03:34 GMT
Pretty clear majority against a referendum next year there Something I've noticed in the polling for a while is people say they don't want a referendum imminently (within the next 12-18 months), but soften when talking about five years in the future - but no matter when the poll is taken the trend stays the same. I'm fairly certain if you looked at similar polls from five years ago, they'd show basically the same thing. I'm guessing this is a result of the further away it is, the more hypothetical it becomes. Good observations but can’t really be good for the Yes side? That kind of public attitude makes it viable for Westminster to keep up the strategy of ignoring or saying no to Section 30 orders as it kicks the can down the road indefinitely
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on May 26, 2022 14:56:54 GMT
Something I've noticed in the polling for a while is people say they don't want a referendum imminently (within the next 12-18 months), but soften when talking about five years in the future - but no matter when the poll is taken the trend stays the same. I'm fairly certain if you looked at similar polls from five years ago, they'd show basically the same thing. I'm guessing this is a result of the further away it is, the more hypothetical it becomes. Good observations but can’t really be good for the Yes side? That kind of public attitude makes it viable for Westminster to keep up the strategy of ignoring or saying no to Section 30 orders as it kicks the can down the road indefinitely It can't be good - at least not in the short-to-medium term. I think the strategy of publicly stating we'll only have a referendum with a Section 30 order was a huge mistake, as there's little the Scottish Government can do to force Westminster's had; if the Scottish Government was seen as having credibility in terms of holding a referendum without Westminster's consent, then Westminster would have to consider agreeing to a Section 30 order - effectively let us have a referendum or argue against it in the Supreme Court. If you're not going to try and force Westminster's hand, the SNP would probably be better, in the long term, to say we're not going to have a referendum, let attention fade from the constitution and reapproach it in the future when people aren't so embedded as they are now - even if that leads to a drop in SNP support right now. There have been some questions as to whether the current Scottish Government actually want a referendum, as the current situation ensures power for the SNP. This has also helped the Conservatives win constituency seats, as they're the primary antithesis to independence and the SNP in a large number of seats. However it's bad for everyone to remain in this limbo for a prolonged period.
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