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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 5, 2022 14:15:01 GMT
Which is why if Westminster ever agrees to a new independence referendum, it'll be Remain vs Leave. It's much more explicit. That is dodgy as. Remain/ Leave is very strongly linked to Brexit.
The SNP would be quite right to cry foul.
You and stb12 raise legitimate points about the SNP's reaction, but given the state of Scottish democracy under the SNP, the threats to the press etc. it would be laughably hypocritical. That, I have no doubt, would be pointed out to them. There are also legitimate questions to ask about the objectivity of the word "independence". It means different things to different people, which is why the SNP is able to get away with telling lies, such as their whopper about England continuing to pay Scottish pensions with no cost to any future Scottish exchequer. If the question were to make it clear that Scotland would be leaving the UK and its institutions, these lies become untenable. I'd therefore argue it would help people make a properly informed decision.
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Post by stb12 on Apr 5, 2022 14:21:23 GMT
Also the 1973 Northern Ireland border poll had the options as ‘Remain in the United Kingdom’ or ‘Join the Republic of Ireland’. Presumably any future border poll would be similar
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Post by afleitch on Apr 5, 2022 14:42:07 GMT
The Electoral Commission's preferred wording was used in the 2014 Referendum add they considered that wording to be neutral in terms of the question asked.
Anyway concerning the locals.
I looked at the average 'second preference' vote in by-elections since last May. Numbers do not add up to 100% as in some cases parties didn't stand. So this is based on the average received where the receiving party stood.
Tories
No transfers 46 Lab 26 Lib Dem 19 Ind 14 Green 4 SNP 4
Labour
No transfers 38 Con 19 Lib Dem 16 SNP 14 Green 13 Ind 8
Lib Dem
Lab 26 No transfers 21 Con 21 Green 20 Ind 20 SNP 9
SNP
Green 47 No transfers 33 Lab 15 Ind 11 Lib Dem 6 Con 4
Green
SNP 51 Lab 18 No transfers 16 Lib Dem 11 Ind 9 Con 5
Independent
No transfers 26 SNP 21 Other Independent 19 Lab 15 Lib Dem 11 Green 11 Con 11
So the Tories waste votes the most, Greens and the SNP heavily preference each other and independents marginally service preference the SNP by enough to explain the polling; more SNP voters proportionally will first preference independent candidates.
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Post by stb12 on Apr 5, 2022 14:47:27 GMT
Considering the Tory focus on the union I’m surprised their voters wouldn’t be transferring pretty heavily to Labour and/or the Lib Dems
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,261
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 5, 2022 15:05:57 GMT
Considering the Tory focus on the union I’m surprised their voters wouldn’t be transferring pretty heavily to Labour and/or the Lib Dems Maybe if the Tories didn't spend so much energy in every campaign for the last 8 years banging on about how they would both sell out the union they might?
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Post by stb12 on Apr 5, 2022 15:09:30 GMT
Considering the Tory focus on the union I’m surprised their voters wouldn’t be transferring pretty heavily to Labour and/or the Lib Dems Maybe if the Tories didn't spend so much energy in every campaign for the last 8 years banging on about how they would both sell out the union they might? That is a very good point and not much sign of them progressing beyond those tactics either
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 5, 2022 15:36:17 GMT
Yougov poll for independence but with wording along the lines of 2016 Which is why if Westminster ever agrees to a new independence referendum, it'll be Remain vs Leave. It's much more explicit. I doubt the Electoral Commission would allow that question - 'leaving the UK' doesn't directly mean independence - it simply means not being part of the UK (Scotland could leave the UK to become a Canadian province); 'remain' and 'leave' would probably be seen as too closely linked to the EU question to be used in a different context. I imagine something like the 1997 style referendum could be used, with the options: "Scotland should be an independent county" and "Scotland should be part of the United Kingdom".
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Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 5, 2022 17:26:13 GMT
the ballot box scotland poll has Ukip yes ukip on 1% and reform on 2% on the regional list. I think we can safely say that's bollocks and can add there percentage onto the tory vote.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,261
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 5, 2022 17:51:50 GMT
the ballot box scotland poll has Ukip yes ukip on 1% and reform on 2% on the regional list. I think we can safely say that's bollocks and can add there percentage onto the tory vote. Yes it's bollocks to the extent that they won't get that much, but no, you can't just do that.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 9, 2022 9:34:10 GMT
BMG poll
Independence Yes=47% No=53%
Westminster poll (however appears to include 16+) very odd Change with last poll
SNP=38%(-10) Lab=24%(+4%) Con=18%(-2%) Lib=5% Grn=4%
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Post by stb12 on Apr 9, 2022 11:14:44 GMT
BMG poll Independence Yes=47% No=53% Westminster poll (however appears to include 16+) very odd Change with last poll SNP=38%(-10) Lab=24%(+4%) Con=18%(-2%) Lib=5% Grn=4% Must be the SNP’s worst poll in a while?
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Post by agbutler on Apr 9, 2022 13:11:05 GMT
BMG poll Independence Yes=47% No=53% Westminster poll (however appears to include 16+) very odd Change with last poll SNP=38%(-10) Lab=24%(+4%) Con=18%(-2%) Lib=5% Grn=4% Must be the SNP’s worst poll in a while? The last time they polled 38% was June 2019, the last time they polled less was March 2019. Of course it's a weird poll, did they include 16 and 17 year olds, where is the missing 11% etc, so I wouldn't put much stock in it yet.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 10, 2022 7:29:27 GMT
Must be the SNP’s worst poll in a while? The last time they polled 38% was June 2019, the last time they polled less was March 2019. Of course it's a weird poll, did they include 16 and 17 year olds, where is the missing 11% etc, so I wouldn't put much stock in it yet. I wonder if there's a typo somewhere in the figures, or the figures include undecided voters. If it's the latter, and we assume a 2% score for others, then it would be SNP 42, Lab 26, Con 20, LDm 5, Grn 4 - which would be in a similar ballpark to the recent Survation poll.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 10, 2022 7:39:28 GMT
The last time they polled 38% was June 2019, the last time they polled less was March 2019. Of course it's a weird poll, did they include 16 and 17 year olds, where is the missing 11% etc, so I wouldn't put much stock in it yet. I wonder if there's a typo somewhere in the figures, or the figures include undecided voters. If it's the latter, and we assume a 2% score for others, then it would be SNP 42, Lab 26, Con 20, LDm 5, Grn 4 - which would be in a similar ballpark to the recent Survation poll. I think your right, someone at the herald has made a mistake somewhere, the article says the SNP is on 38% but then goes in to say they've dropped 6% points from the last poll, last poll had them in 48% so I think there actually on 42%, bloody shambles the print media are in Scotland.
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 10, 2022 8:32:49 GMT
Maybe if the Tories didn't spend so much energy in every campaign for the last 8 years banging on about how they would both sell out the union they might? That is a very good point and not much sign of them progressing beyond those tactics either The last thing the Tories actually want is more Lab and LD councillors.. They much prefer the SNP. Just like the Lab-Con cartel in England
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 10, 2022 9:13:12 GMT
That is a very good point and not much sign of them progressing beyond those tactics either The last thing the Tories actually want is more Lab and LD councillors.. They much prefer the SNP. Just like the Lab-Con cartel in England You seem to be mis using the word 'cartel'.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 10, 2022 9:30:58 GMT
No, the published VI figures virtually certainly won't include undecided voters.
This almost never happens in polling these days, and on the rare occasions it does this is always explicitly stated.
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 10, 2022 18:36:16 GMT
The last thing the Tories actually want is more Lab and LD councillors.. They much prefer the SNP. Just like the Lab-Con cartel in England You seem to be mis using the word 'cartel'. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CartelSeems pretty accurate to me.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 10, 2022 20:38:16 GMT
Hegemony (like the previous Liberal/Tory set up) possibly, cartel - no.
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 12, 2022 10:30:23 GMT
Hegemony (like the previous Liberal/Tory set up) possibly, cartel - no. FPTP is supported by the Con-Lab cartel which has been largely successful outside Scotland for 100 years. The aim of both partners in the cartel is to establish hegemony for themselves, but exchanging it is better than losing the chance. If you are referring to the 2010 coalition, that would surely only be a hegemony if the arrangement was permanent so that the two parties were essentially one, like that between Lab and Co-op. I would say the coalition years were one of the least hegemonic periods since the war.
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