johng
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Post by johng on Dec 2, 2021 11:11:29 GMT
As there won't be a S30 referendum this side of 2026 the question is currently moot. In the meantime I would imagine the Tories will use the Internal Market legislation amongst others to systematically undermine devolution. This is a deluded statement the government won't do no such thing, if anything they'll try and devolve power further down to councils. Talk about deluded!
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 2, 2021 11:27:30 GMT
An outlier poll of 897 people isn't something that is going to get me too concerned. Whilst one wouldn't recommend complacency, that figure does seem a bit on the low side. What is the norm for Scotland-only polls?
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Post by jollyroger93 on Dec 2, 2021 12:29:02 GMT
An outlier poll of 897 people isn't something that is going to get me too concerned. Whilst one wouldn't recommend complacency, that figure does seem a bit on the low side. What is the norm for Scotland-only polls? Around 1000 to 1200
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 3, 2021 9:22:25 GMT
An outlier poll of 897 people isn't something that is going to get me too concerned. Someone clearly doesn't understand...
The poll was of 1,107 respondents which is a bit above average as polls go. 897 gave an answer on independence.
I guess the recent Yougov survey with 1060 respondents is more accurate as your prefer their numbers.
That's not to say it isn't an outlier as it clearly is. No is ahead by 2-3 points looking at an average of recent polls. I don't think any single poll should get anyone too concerned either.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Dec 3, 2021 15:26:41 GMT
An outlier poll of 897 people isn't something that is going to get me too concerned. Someone clearly doesn't understand...
The poll was of 1,107 respondents which is a bit above average as polls go. 897 gave an answer on independence.
I guess the recent Yougov survey with 1060 respondents is more accurate as your prefer their numbers.
That's not to say it isn't an outlier as it clearly is. No is ahead by 2-3 points looking at an average of recent polls. I don't think any single poll should get anyone too concerned either.
I don't actually prefer the YouGov survey, it was just as much an outlier as this one, though I can well believe in the accuracy of it's finding that independence is eighth on the general public's priority list. I also see nothing wrong with the substance of what I said in relation to the respondents on the independence question, you can quibble with the language, sure. However, I simply have nether the time nor inclination to debate that sort of childish gotcha pedantry at the moment.
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Post by afleitch on Dec 26, 2021 10:16:09 GMT
Survation - Westminster
SNP 48% LAB 22% CON 17% LD 7%
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Post by jollyroger93 on Dec 26, 2021 10:24:14 GMT
Survation - Westminster SNP 48% LAB 22% CON 17% LD 7% Appears to be con to Labour switchers
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Post by carolus on Dec 26, 2021 12:09:47 GMT
Some places seem to be suggesting that's from Opinium rather than Survation
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 26, 2021 13:10:41 GMT
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 26, 2021 16:08:35 GMT
Nice front page from the Sunday Mail BTW.
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Post by stb12 on Dec 27, 2021 13:24:55 GMT
Big issue for Scottish Labour at Westminster is that taking a few points off the Tories isn’t likely to win them anymore seats, they need to win some support back from the SNP for that like in 2017
But while Scotland isn’t immune from being influenced by the UK wide scandals like partygate etc you can’t discount the tactical voting aspect coming into play in individual seats again
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Post by jollyroger93 on Dec 27, 2021 15:22:09 GMT
Big issue for Scottish Labour at Westminster is that taking a few points off the Tories isn’t likely to win them anymore seats, they need to win some support back from the SNP for that like in 2017 But while Scotland isn’t immune from being influenced by the UK wide scandals like partygate etc you can’t discount the tactical voting aspect coming into play in individual seats again Interesting points, back in 2017 the reason Labour won several seats was because of the left wing and like warm appetite on The Union, what's interesting is the more pro unionist then become, and win voters from the tories the less likely they are to win over snp voters.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Dec 27, 2021 15:22:40 GMT
Nice front page from the Sunday Mail BTW. I mean it's the Sunday mail the most anti tory paper going. Except for the daily record
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 27, 2021 16:56:25 GMT
Interesting points, back in 2017 the reason Labour won several seats was because of the left wing and like warm appetite on The Union, what's interesting is the more pro unionist then become, and win voters from the tories the less likely they are to win over snp voters. Scottish Labour has an incredibly difficult balancing act to do on the union.
I think it's fair to say that we haven't got it right in a single election post 2015. Of course some elections have been better than others. 2017 saw us increase our number of seats, but that needs to be placed into both Scottish and UK contexts where it looks a little less rosy.
The big problem we have is that every campaign is heavily polarised between union and independence and it seems it is simply not possible to balance the competing interests of getting people who switched to the SNP to switch back whilst also going hard on the unionist angle.
Nothing is permanent though. There are already signs of people tiring of SNP's 15 year reign as the poll above shows. The current leadership looks a bit more dynamic for the perspective of someone on the outside and polls show that Anas Sarwar is pretty popular.
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Post by graham on Dec 27, 2021 18:40:48 GMT
Interesting points, back in 2017 the reason Labour won several seats was because of the left wing and like warm appetite on The Union, what's interesting is the more pro unionist then become, and win voters from the tories the less likely they are to win over snp voters. Scottish Labour has an incredibly difficult balancing act to do on the union.
I think it's fair to say that we haven't got it right in a single election post 2015. Of course some elections have been better than others. 2017 saw us increase our number of seats, but that needs to be placed into both Scottish and UK contexts where it looks a little less rosy.
The big problem we have is that every campaign is heavily polarised between union and independence and it seems it is simply not possible to balance the competing interests of getting people who switched to the SNP to switch back whilst also going hard on the unionist angle.
Nothing is permanent though. There are already signs of people tiring of SNP's 15 year reign as the poll above shows. The current leadership looks a bit more dynamic for the perspective of someone on the outside and polls show that Anas Sarwar is pretty popular.
It may be that just as the salience of Brexit appears to have now declined sharply - as evidenced by North Shropshire and other by elections - that the same will happen to the Independence issue. Only a minority even on the Yes side are likely to be zealots really keen to revisit the issue. Re- the SNP vote in Scotland, I suspect that quite a bit of their support is 'soft' - as we saw in 2017 when their almost 50% share from 2015 fell back to 36% or so. I can well see that happening again if Labour is perceived to be in the ascendant - and Labour could then be close to 30% with the potential for quite substantial gains there. Whether we are beginning to see this happen is another matter.
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 28, 2021 0:27:58 GMT
It may be that just as the salience of Brexit appears to have now declined sharply - as evidenced by North Shropshire and other by elections - that the same will happen to the Independence issue. Only a minority even on the Yes side are likely to be zealots really keen to revisit the issue. Re- the SNP vote in Scotland, I suspect that quite a bit of their support is 'soft' - as we saw in 2017 when their almost 50% share from 2015 fell back to 36% or so. I can well see that happening again if Labour is perceived to be in the ascendant - and Labour could then be close to 30% with the potential for quite substantial gains there. Whether we are beginning to see this happen is another matter. Zealots make up a small number on either side, but independence vs. union has been the core theme in every post referendum election. It suits the SNP and the Tories for this to be the case as they both benefit. Don't forget that no party goes on more about independence and referendums than the Conservatives.
The problem with your point is it is reliant on the SNP vote share falling. Opportunism is very important in politics, but I don't think Labour's plan should be to just wait it out. Scottish voters have more viable options than ever and without action there is no certainty that we would benefit.
Scottish Labour seems to have planted its flag fairly rigidly on the hard unionist side of the argument. Its relationship with the SNP seems pretty comparable to one the between the Tories and SNP. Is this the most sensible path for the party when so many of its former voters now vote SNP? My view is probably tainted by being from Wales, but it doesn't seem so to me.
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 28, 2021 0:42:11 GMT
It's a mistake imo to view the SNPs popularity through the prism of independence. They achieved government 15 years ago, a full 7 years before the independence vote. They achieved a majority 10 years ago, 3 years before an independence vote. Lets not pretend it was independence that won them power, its probably generous to say a third of people wanted independence back then.
The situation SNP imo is similar to the BQ in Canada. Much like the BQ it'll probably take 30 years to displace them.
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 28, 2021 0:57:01 GMT
It's a mistake imo to view the SNPs popularity through the prism of independence. They achieved government 15 years ago, a full 7 years before the independence vote. They achieved a majority 10 years ago, 3 years before an independence vote. Lets not pretend it was independence that won them power, its probably generous to say a third of people wanted independence back then. The situation SNP imo is similar to the BQ in Canada. Much like the BQ it'll probably take 30 years to displace them. I'm not sure the comparison with Quebec is totally fair. The BQ has certainly had its issues and spent two federal elections in the wilderness (a lot of that FPTP induced), but managed almost half the seats in the last two elections. In the provincial assembly, voters still overwhelmingly choose a nationalist party.
The SNP achieved minority government 15 years ago. The arithmetic easily could have (and should have) meant a Labour + someone (LD/ Green/ (I'm a little scared to say this, but...) SNP) government. The election of a Conservative/ LD government is London should have been quite beneficial for Labour. For most of the 2011 campaign, it was; but a lackluster Labour campaign and strong Salmond one meant it wasn't the be.
Since the referendum, the polarisation between the two sides has been the defining issue of every election.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 28, 2021 10:48:08 GMT
Support for Scottish Labour was until 2019 not super heavily correlated with opposition to Scottish independence, and is now actually very modestly correlated with support for Brexit relative to Scotland as a whole (there’s also no age divide). Clearly a lot of their support has gone to the SNP and needs to be won back, but their current vote actually looks a lot like the Conservative vote and it may prove just as easy/difficult to win over voters from the Conservatives as it does the SNP (which tbf doing so would help Labour reestablish itself as the main opposition).
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 28, 2021 11:01:37 GMT
Yes, the fact that Labour is clearly second in this latest poll shouldn't be sniffed at.
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