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Post by jollyroger93 on Dec 17, 2020 13:54:48 GMT
jollyroger93 It's hard to extrapolate out a few council by-election results to a national picture. Though they do, fairly broadly, show that polls are in the right place. According to the projection in The Scotsman (they commissioned the poll), it is SNP 71 (+8 ) Con 23 (-8 ) Lab 19 (-5 ) Grn 11 (+5 ) LD 5 (= ) 82 nationalists to 47 unionists. I know some on here disagree, but that would be a whopping mandate for a second referendum and it's hard to see how Johnson's refusal to hold one wouldn't further harm the unionist cause. Id say it’s more what is the trend telling us, and that’s the SNP up, Tories and libs flatlining and Labour down.
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Post by jimboo2017 on Dec 17, 2020 14:41:54 GMT
Feels like a slight outer for Comres, they’ve had the SNP consistently around the 50% and I can think of anything major that’s happened recently to make the jump 5 points... I think Richard Leonard made a statement on something Keir Starmer came up for a weekend
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fourringcircus
Forum Regular
Toryism kills the humane spirit
Posts: 1,600
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Post by fourringcircus on Dec 17, 2020 17:18:21 GMT
14-16 point lead according to this poll. That's now 16 polls in a row. It's actually the 17th poll in a row.....
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Post by lackeroftalent on Dec 17, 2020 17:46:50 GMT
According to the projection in The Scotsman (they commissioned the poll), it is SNP 71 (+8 ) Con 23 (-8 ) Lab 19 (-5 ) Grn 11 (+5 ) LD 5 (= ) Greens up 5? Is that SNP voters using them as a decoy list? The Scottish Green Party have for some time been encouraging voters to split their vote in Scotland, giving them their regional vote. And what do you know, people will vote Green if they believe it will result in Greens being elected. I am given to understand from the couple of Scottish Greens I know that how those Green regional voters are spread is across all four other parties in proportion to their vote (ie 50%+ SNP, even about 10% Con). Are voters gaming the system? Somewhat but then the constituency vote is the same in reverse.
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Post by afleitch on Dec 17, 2020 22:40:33 GMT
Nice!
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Post by connor on Jan 8, 2021 21:17:12 GMT
God I mean its writing on the wall that the SNP will sweep again. It would be a shock if the SNP didn't get a majority. Would really be a reality check in a way.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 8, 2021 21:22:10 GMT
God I mean its writing on the wall that the SNP will sweep again. It would be a shock if the SNP didn't get a majority. Would really be a reality check in a way. They were at 55% months before the 2016 election... on the night they got 46% and lost 6 seats.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Jan 8, 2021 23:19:21 GMT
A May election is looking less and less likely as the weeks go on. A lot can change between now and the Autumn or, dare I say, May 2022.
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Post by connor on Jan 9, 2021 0:09:33 GMT
I think it will be delayed to the summer perhaps. Warm weather may bring a bigger turnout. But it depends on the speed of the vaccination.
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fourringcircus
Forum Regular
Toryism kills the humane spirit
Posts: 1,600
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Post by fourringcircus on Jan 14, 2021 9:38:17 GMT
Eighteenth in a row for Yes.....
Scottish independence voting intention:
Yes: 51% (-1) No: 38% (-)
Excluding undecideds: Yes: 57% (-1) No: 43% (+1)
SavantaComRes, 08 - 13 Jan
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 14, 2021 9:49:32 GMT
Piss poor for the blues, but not bad for the greens I have to say.
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fourringcircus
Forum Regular
Toryism kills the humane spirit
Posts: 1,600
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Post by fourringcircus on Jan 14, 2021 10:33:52 GMT
Piss poor for the blues, but not bad for the greens I have to say. Did you see the DRoss PPB yesterday? I thought he gave even Willie Rennie a run for his money in the 'how to look like a useless political tool' stakes. I've been trying to think about who Ross reminds me of, ever since his meteoric rise to,..... whatever his position is! It's the Spitting Image puppet of David Steel.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 14, 2021 10:35:02 GMT
Party politically we are where we where in December, only we are in third place due to that odd drop in our list vote, that feels like maybe a bit of an outer, but will rather poor showing for Scotland’s opposition. Especially with the SNP appearing to buffer up the vaccine programme, and with the Salmond inquiry heating up. I do suppose they say governments lose elections oppositions don’t win them....
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 14, 2021 10:37:19 GMT
Piss poor for the blues, but not bad for the greens I have to say. Did you see the DRoss PPB yesterday? I thought he gave even Willie Rennie a run for his money in the 'how to look like a useless political tool' stakes. I've been trying to think about who Ross reminds me of, ever since his meteoric rise to,..... whatever his position is! It's the Spitting Image puppet of David Steel. I thought it was an ok PPB much better than the crap we use to pump out 😂😂, think with Ross is he’s clearly very intelligent and a good debater, but hasn’t had the public platform yet to demonstrate that. Clearly him not being in holyrood is an issue.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,612
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 14, 2021 11:57:47 GMT
Piss poor for the blues, but not bad for the greens I have to say. Did you see the DRoss PPB yesterday? I thought he gave even Willie Rennie a run for his money in the 'how to look like a useless political tool' stakes. I've been trying to think about who Ross reminds me of, ever since his meteoric rise to,..... whatever his position is! It's the Spitting Image puppet of David Steel. Oooohhhhh Daviiiid... I feel a surge coming on! Ironic (probably the wrong word) as it was Steel that was the brains of the two.
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Post by northbriton on Jan 15, 2021 11:32:47 GMT
Did you see the DRoss PPB yesterday? I thought he gave even Willie Rennie a run for his money in the 'how to look like a useless political tool' stakes. I've been trying to think about who Ross reminds me of, ever since his meteoric rise to,..... whatever his position is! It's the Spitting Image puppet of David Steel. I thought it was an ok PPB much better than the crap we use to pump out 😂😂, think with Ross is he’s clearly very intelligent and a good debater, but hasn’t had the public platform yet to demonstrate that. Clearly him not being in holyrood is an issue. Douglas Ross is a pretty impressive debater as has been seen on his forays in the House of Commons. What will be interesting is to see how Nicola Sturgeon fares when the election campaign actually starts and she has to debate the other candidates on issues such as education etc. I think you will inevitably see a tightening of the polls, even if not quite on 2017 levels when Theresa May's lead haemorrhaged. There's still a way to go, and the impact (or not) of Scottish Labour's new leader to take into account who cannot possibly be as hopeless as Richard Leonard. Suspect you will see a fair amount of Keir Starmer in Scotland and Gordon Brown too. Probably not so much of Boris though...
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 19, 2021 8:51:46 GMT
Survation indi poll Would expect there to be holyrood and Westminster soon. Yes 51% No 49%
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hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
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Post by hengo on Jan 19, 2021 10:44:29 GMT
I thought it was an ok PPB much better than the crap we use to pump out 😂😂, think with Ross is he’s clearly very intelligent and a good debater, but hasn’t had the public platform yet to demonstrate that. Clearly him not being in holyrood is an issue. Douglas Ross is a pretty impressive debater as has been seen on his forays in the House of Commons. What will be interesting is to see how Nicola Sturgeon fares when the election campaign actually starts and she has to debate the other candidates on issues such as education etc. I think you will inevitably see a tightening of the polls, even if not quite on 2017 levels when Theresa May's lead haemorrhaged. There's still a way to go, and the impact (or not) of Scottish Labour's new leader to take into account who cannot possibly be as hopeless as Richard Leonard. Suspect you will see a fair amount of Keir Starmer in Scotland and Gordon Brown too. Probably not so much of Boris though... Why is Boris so unpopular in Scotland? More so than in England I mean? It can hardly be a moral distaste, given the apparent enthusiasm for their own present and previous leader! Just therefore that he seems particularly “English” to an inward looking, increasingly xenophobic mindset ? That hardly fits with the Scots I know, but they live in England on the whole- few are Conservative to be sure, but just tend to shake their heads when I ask them about it.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 19, 2021 10:47:06 GMT
Douglas Ross is a pretty impressive debater as has been seen on his forays in the House of Commons. What will be interesting is to see how Nicola Sturgeon fares when the election campaign actually starts and she has to debate the other candidates on issues such as education etc. I think you will inevitably see a tightening of the polls, even if not quite on 2017 levels when Theresa May's lead haemorrhaged. There's still a way to go, and the impact (or not) of Scottish Labour's new leader to take into account who cannot possibly be as hopeless as Richard Leonard. Suspect you will see a fair amount of Keir Starmer in Scotland and Gordon Brown too. Probably not so much of Boris though... Why is Boris so unpopular in Scotland? More so than in England I mean? It can hardly be a moral distaste, given the apparent enthusiasm for their own present and previous leader! Just therefore that he seems particularly “English” to an inward looking, increasingly xenophobic mindset ? That hardly fits with the Scots I know, but they live in England on the whole- few are Conservative to be sure, but just tend to shake their heads when I ask them about it. Because bluntly Scots just love to hate a Buffoon blonde PM. If he was Scottish and FM he would be as popular in Scotland as he is in England I would think.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Jan 19, 2021 11:40:27 GMT
Survation indi poll Would expect there to be holyrood and Westminster soon. Yes 51% No 49% Survation has never showed particularly strong leads for independence like some other pollsters. Their previous poll in December was 52-48.
Still it's the best poll for the union since a Panelbase one in early May 2020 which showed the result as even.
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