Ealing North

[Chris from Brum]

Dec 21, 2020 16:02:03 GMT timrollpickering said:

Reportedly when TfL got their hands on the National Rail services that became TfL Rail they were told they had to take one of the shuttles as well and opted instead for the Romford-Upminster service (now that bit of London Overground that's utterly detached from the rest of it).

That's the single track line that includes Emerson Park, isn't it?

[timrollpickering]

Yes. Emerson Park station is in fact closer to the centre of Hornchurch than Hornchurch station is.

[heslingtonian]

I agree that the new MP for here will probably be in the Cabinet in the next Labour Government.

However, I do miss Stephen Pound who was a marvellous character and when I once interacted for him in a work capacity was a total gentleman as well. Undoubtedly one of my favourite Labour MPs of all time.

[Deleted]

I wonder if second and third generation Eastern Europeans might be winnable for the Conservatives. From what I understand from friends who know Poland well, Poles are fairly religious and often conservative on social issues.

[Merseymike]

Dec 22, 2020 12:03:03 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

I wonder if second and third generation Eastern Europeans might be winnable for the Conservatives. From what I understand from friends who know Poland well, Poles are fairly religious and often conservative on social issues.

I think most of them would be Conservative voters anyway - though many more recent Polish immigrants have moved here to get away from the social conservatism and religious domination.

[Deleted]

Dec 22, 2020 12:13:15 GMT Merseymike said:

Dec 22, 2020 12:03:03 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

I wonder if second and third generation Eastern Europeans might be winnable for the Conservatives. From what I understand from friends who know Poland well, Poles are fairly religious and often conservative on social issues.

I think most of them would be Conservative voters anyway - though many more recent Polish immigrants have moved here to get away from the social conservatism and religious domination.

They do seem to be a growing segment of the population. I know a Hungarian couple with 10 children. Obviously not the norm but I imagine Eastern Europeans have more children than average because of the Catholic influence?

[The Bishop]

I think the "first" generation of Polish immigrants (ie WW2 and just after) were pretty pro-Tory, which maybe shouldn't surprise too much.

[Deleted]

Dec 22, 2020 12:42:59 GMT The Bishop said:

I think the "first" generation of Polish immigrants (ie WW2 and just after) were pretty pro-Tory, which maybe shouldn't surprise too much.

Makes sense. I'm thinking about the post-2004 arrivals.

[Deleted]

Dec 22, 2020 12:42:59 GMT The Bishop said:

I think the "first" generation of Polish immigrants (ie WW2 and just after) were pretty pro-Tory, which maybe shouldn't surprise too much.

Of course many more recent arrivals are people who have left Poland to escape its conservative religious nature, but I imagine most of them aren't eligible to vote yet 

[The Bishop]

I know, but there it may be complicated by the factor that Merseymike mentioned.

[Pete Whitehead]

Primarily they came for economic reasons rather than socio-cultural ones I should have thought

[iang]

It does partly depend on which part of Poland you are from. If you look at the most recent Polish elections, there was a pretty sharp divide between West (more liberal) and East (very socially conservative), so where people have migrated from might be a factor. It might be the case that more people who do migrate are from the cities, especially the western ones, but that's only a guess. The post war migration was mainly from the eastern territories, which are now part of Ukraine & Belarus - the boundaries (and populations) were shifted significantly after WW2 - and that would have made them very anti-Soviet, and therefore maybe more Conservative as suggested above. Not all Poles though - my late father in law was from Silesia, and long gave up any vestigial Catholicism. And teaching at a Catholic school we have a lot of Polish origin kids, but they vary a lot in terms of how much Polish remains the main home language, and more kids now have one Polish origin parent as the community has settled in, so it's difficult to draw hard and fast conclusions

[Merseymike]

Dec 22, 2020 12:48:26 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Primarily they came for economic reasons rather than socio-cultural ones I should have thought

Well - many of those have returned and never intended to relocate long term. Those who have stayed are, anecdotally, less enamoured with Polish politics and are not religious. The UK vote for the governing party was if I recall, very small.

[gwynthegriff]

Dec 22, 2020 12:48:26 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Primarily they came for economic reasons rather than socio-cultural ones I should have thought

I cam across one guy who was desperate not to return to Poland as he was Orthodox rather than Roman Catholic.

Couldn't help feeling there was a complex back story there.

[john07]

Dec 22, 2020 14:10:38 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Dec 22, 2020 12:48:26 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Primarily they came for economic reasons rather than socio-cultural ones I should have thought

I cam across one guy who was desperate not to return to Poland as he was Orthodox rather than Roman Catholic.

Couldn't help feeling there was a complex back story there.

Many Poles came to the UK for economic reasons in the first place. With the Polish economy growing many returned. Those who stayed did so for socio-cultural reasons as much as for economic factors. This includes some who are LGB while others do not fancy returning to a country run by social Conservatives and megalomaniacs.

[heslingtonian]

Are there that many Poles in Ealing North these days? Sadly, I reckon many will have left following Brexit.

[Deleted]

Dec 26, 2020 10:52:23 GMT heslingtonian said:

Are there that many polls in Ealing North these days? Sadly, I reckon many will have left following Brexit.

Don't think there are many polls here. It's safely Labour.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 11.1% 589/650
Owner-occupied 55.0% 541/650
Private rented 22.3% 91/650
Social rented 19.8% 226/650
White 49.9% 625/650
Black 13.0% 31/650
Asian 26.4% 30/650
Born in EU accession states 2001-11 10.8% 2/650
Managerial & professional 27.8%
Routine & Semi-routine 21.7%
Degree level 30.4% 174/650
No qualifications 19.0% 497/650
Students % /650


2021 Census

Owner occupied 51.5% 488/573
Private rented 28.8% 73/573
Social rented 19.7% 166/573
White 42.9%
Black 13.2%
Asian 27.2%
Managerial & professional 28.8% 378/573
Routine & Semi-routine 21.2% 387/573
Degree level 38.9% 121/573
No qualifications 19.3% 225/573





General Election 2019: Ealing North

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Labour Co-op James Murray 28,036 56.5 −9.5
Conservative Anthony Pickles 15,767 31.8 +3.3
Liberal Democrats Henrietta Bewley 4,370 8.8 +6.4
Green Jeremy Parker 1,458 2.9 +1.5

Lab Majority 12,269 24.7 −12.8

Turnout 49,631 66.6 −3.6

Registered electors 74,473

Labour hold
Swing 6.4 Lab to C

[batman]

Jun 1, 2020 20:43:31 GMT kevinlarkin said:

Jun 1, 2020 19:51:32 GMT @barnabymarder said:

The older members of the Polish community have historically been very pro-Conservative, but there is some evidence that younger and more recent arrivals from Poland are less so (some have left because they hate the Law & Justice Party government so much, amongst other reasons). There was for some years a Labour councillor who was prominent in the Polish community, Wiktor Moszynski, but I haven't heard of him in some years. He was certainly unusual as a Polish-heritage Labour supporter when he was on the council.

Wiktor was very interesting and well informed about the Polish diaspora on the few occasions that I met him.

he's still around and is occasionally heard from.

[batman]

Dec 21, 2020 17:54:24 GMT hengo said:

I lived here for a few years in the 90s. Can’t say much in its favour tbh. Takes ages to get out of London, and ages to get into the parts of London worth living there for.

the constituency does nowadays include the Pitshanger Lane area, which is now in Cleveland ward now that Pitshanger ward (which was the safest Tory ward in the borough) has been abolished. It's a very pleasant neighbourbood, within walking distance of Ealing Broadway station but if you don't fancy the walk there are plenty of buses to get you there quickly. It is true that many parts of the constituency are not particularly lovely residential areas these days, but there are other pleasant enclaves (such as just north of Hanwell station, itself a listed building of some beauty). The best pubs in the borough of Ealing, however, are almost all to be found in the Ealing Central and Acton constituency, and in a couple of cases in Ealing Southall (in the Hanwell section of that seat - very difficult to get a decent pint in Southall itself now, unless, apparently, you go to the Conservative Club, something I'd be pretty reluctant to do). Thanks to Pete for writing the profile of the seat which is a good reflection of the realities on the ground.