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Post by elinorhelyn on Oct 25, 2020 7:40:37 GMT
Wycombe is essentially the new Slough now
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 26, 2020 22:31:59 GMT
Wycombe is essentially the new Slough now How? Wycombe is nowhere near as diverse as Slough and has much more of the richer suburbia surrounding it than Slough does. Slough is also much better for employment and transport links than HW is. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jan 20, 2021 18:42:09 GMT
Stats update :
Owner occupied - 65.7%, 362/650
Private rented - 17.0%, 197/650
Social rented - 14.6%, 366/650
White - 73.3%, 561/650
Black - 5.0% , 105/650
Asian - 17.7%, 55/650
Managerial and professional - 35.8%
Routine and semi-routine - 20.4%
Degree level - 31.4%, 152/650
No qualifications - 17.9%, 537/650
Students - 10.0%, 145/650
Age 65+ - 13.2%, 545/650
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 27, 2022 8:48:05 GMT
Wycombe is not greatly affected by the boundary changes occasioned by the addition of an 8th seat to Buckinghamshire but it is over quota on current boundaries and a small change is required. The addition of a small area in the West Wycombe ward, to realign with 'new' ward boundaries is more than offset by the removal of 7,500 voters in Hazlemere which is added to Chesham & Amersham. This not a politically neutral exchange as Hazlemere is much older, whiter and more Conservative than the core of High Wycombe itself and what is already a marginal seat will become more so. On the other hand Hazlemere may prove helpful to the Conservatives in retaking Chesham & Amersham from the Lib Dems.
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 1, 2022 13:53:09 GMT
Stats update : Owner occupied - 65.7%, 362/650 Private rented - 17.0%, 197/650 Social rented - 14.6%, 366/650 White - 73.3%, 561/650 Black - 5.0% , 105/650 Asian - 17.7%, 55/650 Managerial and professional - 35.8% Routine and semi-routine - 20.4% Degree level - 31.4%, 152/650 No qualifications - 17.9%, 537/650 Students - 10.0%, 145/650 Age 65+ - 13.2%, 545/650 Owner occupied 65.5% 299/573 Private rented 20.5% 194/573 Social rented 14.0% 333/573 White 66.7% Black 4.9% Asian 21.5% Managerial & professional 37.1% 164/573 Routine & Semi-routine 19.9% 425/573 Degree level 38.2% 130/573 No qualifications 15.9% 382/573 |
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Post by batman on Dec 1, 2022 15:51:50 GMT
The Black community in High Wycombe is quite long-established. My cricket captain in my 2nd year at Cambridge, Mark, said he had played in a match for his local team in Luton against High Wycombe West Indians.
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 1, 2022 16:17:11 GMT
The Black community in High Wycombe is quite long-established. My cricket captain in my 2nd year at Cambridge, Mark, said he had played in a match for his local team in Luton against High Wycombe West Indians. Wycombe is one of only nine constituencies where the majority of residents who were black identified as "Black Caribbean" rather than "Black African" or "Black Other" - the other eight were all in the West Midlands and most of these were heavily white (the two exceptions being West Bromwich East and Birmingham Perry Barr). |
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Post by rockefeller on Dec 3, 2022 12:32:51 GMT
Wycombe is essentially the new Slough now Potentially with the Labour margin to match next time |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 5, 2022 13:00:33 GMT
Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries | Con | 21749 | 44.4% | | Lab | 18885 | 38.5% | | LD | 5735 | 11.7% | | Grn | 1345 | 2.7% | | Oth | 1307 | 2.7% |
| | | | Majority | 2864 | 5.8% |
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Post by rockefeller on Dec 5, 2022 13:07:49 GMT
Stats update : Owner occupied - 65.7%, 362/650 Private rented - 17.0%, 197/650 Social rented - 14.6%, 366/650 White - 73.3%, 561/650 Black - 5.0% , 105/650 Asian - 17.7%, 55/650 Managerial and professional - 35.8% Routine and semi-routine - 20.4% Degree level - 31.4%, 152/650 No qualifications - 17.9%, 537/650 Students - 10.0%, 145/650 Age 65+ - 13.2%, 545/650 2021 Census White 66.7% Black 4.9% Asian 21.5% This seat is going the way of Bedford in the long-term. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Dec 6, 2022 15:46:24 GMT
Wycombe is essentially the new Slough now Potentially with the Labour margin to match next time Absolutely not, Wycombe has a lot less deprivation than Slough does and it's at least 10 to 20 years before the demographics look similar to Slough's. It'll be a Lab gain with a sizeable margin given the circumstances of the current government, but the majority will be below 10,000. Unlike Slough, where I suspect it'll top 20k from the 13,640 in 2019. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 6, 2022 17:00:36 GMT
Potentially with the Labour margin to match next time Absolutely not, Wycombe has a lot less deprivation than Slough does and it's at least 10 to 20 years before the demographics look similar to Slough's. It'll be a Lab gain with a sizeable margin given the circumstances of the current government, but the majority will be below 10,000. Unlike Slough, where I suspect it'll top 20k from the 13,640 in 2019. There's also the fact that the Slough constituency is entirely within Slough (indeed one of the most Conservative wards in the borough is actually in the Windsor seat).
Whereas even if High Wycombe was demographically and politically identical to Slough, the Wycombe constituency stretches out to include much more rural (and Conservative) areas: West Wycombe, Lane End, Hazlemere (for now)... |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Dec 7, 2022 16:46:39 GMT
Absolutely not, Wycombe has a lot less deprivation than Slough does and it's at least 10 to 20 years before the demographics look similar to Slough's. It'll be a Lab gain with a sizeable margin given the circumstances of the current government, but the majority will be below 10,000. Unlike Slough, where I suspect it'll top 20k from the 13,640 in 2019. There's also the fact that the Slough constituency is entirely within Slough (indeed one of the most Conservative wards in the borough is actually in the Windsor seat).
Whereas even if High Wycombe was demographically and politically identical to Slough, the Wycombe constituency stretches out to include much more rural (and Conservative) areas: West Wycombe, Lane End, Hazlemere (for now)... Lane End isn't as monolithically Conservative as say, Hambleden or Henley, but I get your gist. Wycombe is a county constituency for a reason, right. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 7, 2022 17:57:07 GMT
There's also the fact that the Slough constituency is entirely within Slough (indeed one of the most Conservative wards in the borough is actually in the Windsor seat).
Whereas even if High Wycombe was demographically and politically identical to Slough, the Wycombe constituency stretches out to include much more rural (and Conservative) areas: West Wycombe, Lane End, Hazlemere (for now)... Lane End isn't as monolithically Conservative as say, Hambleden or Henley, but I get your gist. Wycombe is a county constituency for a reason, right. That's why I should check demographics before making a point like that rather than just relying on geography; I hadn't realised Lane End was actually quite working class and even has a surprisingly significant ethnic minority population. I suppose my point is more true of the more rural villages in that Chiltern Villages ward. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Dec 7, 2022 18:42:56 GMT
Lane End isn't as monolithically Conservative as say, Hambleden or Henley, but I get your gist. Wycombe is a county constituency for a reason, right. That's why I should check demographics before making a point like that rather than just relying on geography; I hadn't realised Lane End was actually quite working class and even has a surprisingly significant ethnic minority population. I suppose my point is more true of the more rural villages in that Chiltern Villages ward. It's a favourite location for people in Wycombe who have a bit of money (but not Marlow or Great Missenden) to move out and there's a fair few relatively wealthy South Asian businessman in HW. Areas like Turville, Piddington and Ibstone fit that picture better, yes. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2023 7:53:21 GMT
If Baker actually believes we need supermajorities, maybe he should resign since he didn't get that here: 'The "Brexiteer" Tory minister Steve Baker said the EU referendum in 2016 should have required a "supermajority" of 60%. Baker said a higher threshold than a simple majority would have removed the difficulty of politicians and the public not accepting the result, a trend that he said has caused serious political "trouble". He said this was a "huge thing for me to say – because if it had been a supermajority we'd have lost and we'd still be in".'
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Post by johnloony on Oct 24, 2023 10:15:03 GMT
If Baker actually believes we need supermajorities, maybe he should resign since he didn't get that here: 'The "Brexiteer" Tory minister Steve Baker said the EU referendum in 2016 should have required a "supermajority" of 60%. Baker said a higher threshold than a simple majority would have removed the difficulty of politicians and the public not accepting the result, a trend that he said has caused serious political "trouble". He said this was a "huge thing for me to say – because if it had been a supermajority we'd have lost and we'd still be in".' What a load of nonsense. It would not have removed the difficulty of people not accepting the result; it would have created such a difficulty. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 24, 2023 10:41:48 GMT
If Baker actually believes we need supermajorities, maybe he should resign since he didn't get that here: 'The "Brexiteer" Tory minister Steve Baker said the EU referendum in 2016 should have required a "supermajority" of 60%. Baker said a higher threshold than a simple majority would have removed the difficulty of politicians and the public not accepting the result, a trend that he said has caused serious political "trouble". He said this was a "huge thing for me to say – because if it had been a supermajority we'd have lost and we'd still be in".' That’s an unsubtle pre emptive strike for the future rejoin referendum. A 58/42 rejoin vote which then results in us not rejoining would be …..interesting. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 24, 2023 12:23:08 GMT
Maybe with future referendums on Scotland or NI in mind as well.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 24, 2023 18:55:26 GMT
If Baker actually believes we need supermajorities, maybe he should resign since he didn't get that here: 'The "Brexiteer" Tory minister Steve Baker said the EU referendum in 2016 should have required a "supermajority" of 60%. Baker said a higher threshold than a simple majority would have removed the difficulty of politicians and the public not accepting the result, a trend that he said has caused serious political "trouble". He said this was a "huge thing for me to say – because if it had been a supermajority we'd have lost and we'd still be in".' He's gone next year anyway, so you may get your wish. |
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