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Post by Robert Waller on May 15, 2020 10:00:36 GMT
As no one has done this yet, I intend to make it my next attempt!
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on May 15, 2020 15:07:58 GMT
As no one has done this yet, I intend to make it my next attempt! Look forward to it! As a former Nottingham student funnily enough the only part of it I am familiar with is Sutton Bonington, and not West Bridgford! (though I did see a match at the Forest ground once). There is some student accommodation, probably no more than 1,000, for the on-site vets and biosciences courses, but many of them move out to Kegworth in NW Leicestershire, where I believe there may be growing town and gown tensions as the student population increases. Kenneth Clarke couldn't have been more local and well-respected locally, it's a shame his successor appears to have been parachuted in, probably reflected in the underwhelming result. When he came to speak on campus he was very approachable and friendly, expressing surprise at how demographics have changed - his first contest was in Mansfield I believe, which is now safer than Rushcliffe. |
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Post by Robert Waller on May 16, 2020 19:26:13 GMT
The nomenclature used for parliamentary constituencies in Nottinghamshire will be unusually appealing to some, obscure and unhelpful to others. This is apparent at both geographical ends of the county: Bassetlaw at the northern tip is not named after any town, but rather an ancient wapentake or subdivision of a county particularly in the former Danelaw. The same principle applies here: Rushcliffe was the southernmost wapentake. Less romantic types might argue that it would be much clearer to name this seat South Nottinghamshire; alternatively praise could be granted to the Boundary Commission for adopting a variety of policies and for respecting tradition.
There has been a Rushcliffe constituency since 1885, and it has been won by a Conservative in every election except for one Labour victory, in 1966. However it does need to be pointed out that there have been very significant boundary changes. Up to 1974 Rushcliffe included the sizeable Beeston and Stapleford Urban District, which made it a much better prospect for Labour. This area is now the core of the marginal constituency of Broxtowe, which is only fitting as Beeston and Stapleford were in the Broxtowe wapentake of yore, not Rushcliffe. To make things even more confusing, there was a parliamentary seat of Broxtowe between 1918 and 1955 which was not in the Broxtowe wapentake and which was if anything the predecessor of the current Ashfield division, and was safely Labour throughout – and has very little territory in common with the current Broxtowe.
Anyway, one thing is clear. Rushcliffe has been associated with the pro-European Conservative ‘big beast’ Kenneth Clarke for a very long time. He was 29 years old when he first won it in 1970, actually a gain on those former boundaries from Labour’s only ever MP here, Tony Gardner. Clarke was re-elected twelve times and was Father of the House when he finally retired from the Commons in 2019. His smallest ever majority was just over 5,000 in 1997. Labour did rise 12% to a respectable 38% in Clarke’s last contest in 2017, and perhaps because of his very long-term personal ‘incumbency’ vote his successor Ruth Edwards found the Tory lead over Labour cut again slightly in 2019, with the Liberal Democrats more than tripling their share in third place. Rushcliffe is now the 91st most marginal Conservative seat – that is, more marginal than the average, and requiring less than half the swing to fall to Labour than, say, Sherwood and Mansfield, two Nottinghamshire seats that have been in Labour hands relatively recently.
The main reason for Rushcliffe’s electoral behaviour is not hard to find. Like its best known representative, this is a strongly pro-Remain constituency, estimated at 58.5% in the 2016 referendum, whereas Sherwood and Mansfield were strongly for Brexit. In turn Rushcliffe’s attitude needs to be explained. It was not, in the main, a matter of following the MP’s lead. Overall, Rushcliffe is an affluent, and, importantly, well-educated seat: 585th in the UK for ‘no educational qualifications’ and in the top 50 for Level 4 (degree) and above. It also ranks 17th in the list of those employed in education, as well is in the top 30 for higher professional and higher managerial occupations. Although there is not a dramatic concentration of full time students, the influence of Nottingham’s two universities is a likely factor. The seat is close to Nottingham Trent’s Clifton campus, for example.
This is because the Rushcliffe seat contains two distinct sections. In one, we are in the suburbs of the city of Nottingham, in the community of West Bridgford. In fact, many would still think we are here still in the city. Among the landmarks on this south side of Trent Bridge as well as the county administrative headquarters are the eponymous Test cricket venue, and the ground of Nottingham Forest, the city’s more successful league club (though not the oldest). Nevertheless it has always been defined to be outside the city boundaries. West Bridgford had a population of over 47,000 in 2011. It is predominantly owner occupied and middle class, but does contain most of the Asian element of the Rushcliffe seat, which numbered around 5% at the time of the last census. It also harbours Labour’s strongest areas in the constituency. For example in the most recent county council elections in 2017 Labour easily won the West Bridgford North division, and in May 2019 they returned seven councillors, including both in Trent Bridge and Lutterell wards. The Liberal Democrats took West Bridgford’s Musters wars and the Greens easily won Lady Bay. However just over half the Rushcliffe seat lies in the rural south Nottinghamshire rolling acres, which is fairly solidly Conservative at all levels, with the partial exception of Cotgrave ward, in which was situated one of the last coal mines to be sunk not only in Nottinghamshire but in England; it operated between the early 1960s and the early 1990s. A slew of other villages are more typical, the largest communities being Radcliffe on Trent, Ruddington and Keyworth.
Even though the new MP is not as local or as popular as the West Bridgford-born, personable, rumpled honourable member for nigh on half a century, on its current boundaries it is hard to see the Conservatives actually losing Rushcliffe, especially if and when the Brexit effect fades. There was a time when Nottinghamshire was overwhelmingly Labour and Rushcliffe was an exception. Now the wapentakes at both ends of the county – and everything in between except the city of Nottingham itself – are in the blue column, and Rushclife is the exception in another sense, in that it does not seem to be trending in that direction.
General election 2019: Rushcliffe
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Ruth Edwards 28,765 47.5 -4.3
Labour Cheryl Pidgeon 21,122 34.9 -3.2
Liberal Democrats Jason Billin 9,600 15.9 +11.1
UKIP Matthew Faithfull 591 1.0 -1.6
Independent John Kirby 427 0.7 N/A
C Majority 7,643 12.6 -0.9
Turnout 60,505 78.5 +0.5
Conservative hold
2011 Census
Age 65+ 18.3 220/650
Owner-occupied 76.4% 47/650
Private rented 13.7 347/650
Social rented 8.2 629/650
White 92.5 384/650
Black 0.6 337/650
Asian 4.7 241/650
Managerial & professional 45.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 16.2%
Degree level 39.9 50/650
No qualifications 16.2 585/650
Students 9.2 169/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 76.7% 35/573
Private rented 14.8% 446/573
Social rented 8.5% 553/573
White 88.7%
Black 1.0%
Asian 6.4%
Managerial & professional 46.9% 23/573
Routine & Semi-routine 15.0% 527/573
Degree level 46.2% 54/573
No qualifications 11.8% 545/573
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2020 20:02:29 GMT
Esher & Walton
Rushcliffe
South Cambridgeshire
Worthing East and Shoreham
Wycombe
All Tory in 1997. All vulnerable going forward.
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Post by ClevelandYorks on May 16, 2020 20:14:22 GMT
Esher & Walton Rushcliffe South Cambridgeshire Worthing East and Shoreham Wycombe All Tory in 1997. All vulnerable going forward. And your point is? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2020 20:18:21 GMT
Esher & Walton Rushcliffe South Cambridgeshire Worthing East and Shoreham Wycombe All Tory in 1997. All vulnerable going forward. And your point is? Well it links to the earlier point Robert made about Rushcliffe being more marginal than Mansfield and Sherwood. If you compare the general election map from 1935 to 1979 you see remarkable stability, but in the intervening 40+ years things have become so much more volatile. My chief concern is that the Conservatives end up like the US Republican Party, too extreme on issues like immigration to win wealthy white collar suburbia. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 16, 2020 20:22:28 GMT
Esher & Walton Rushcliffe South Cambridgeshire Worthing East and Shoreham Wycombe All Tory in 1997. All vulnerable going forward. I disagree that Rushcliffe is vulnerable. While it will be probably never have a huge majority the Tory floor is fairly high and in my view higher than the Labour ceiling. |
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Post by greenhert on May 16, 2020 20:29:56 GMT
Esher & Walton Rushcliffe South Cambridgeshire Worthing East and Shoreham Wycombe All Tory in 1997. All vulnerable going forward. I believe Esher & Walton's result was a fluke result attributed to Brexit and issues with Dominic Raab's actions as Foreign Secretary, especially regarding the Harry Dunne case. Rushcliffe has not experienced the same change as the latter three seats, which can genuinely be considered marginal. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 16, 2020 20:30:23 GMT
Wycombe would have probably gone Labour in 1997 on the current boundaries, in any case it was Labour in 1950 on far less favourable boundaries so is hardly somewhere that has suddenly shifted and in as much as it is trending Labour it certainly isn't because of 'wealthy white collar suburbia'.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2020 20:43:31 GMT
Wycombe would have probably gone Labour in 1997 on the current boundaries, in any case it was Labour in 1950 on far less favourable boundaries so is hardly somewhere that has suddenly shifted and in as much as it is trending Labour it certainly isn't because of 'wealthy white collar suburbia'. Go on. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 16, 2020 20:46:31 GMT
Wycombe would have probably gone Labour in 1997 on the current boundaries, in any case it was Labour in 1950 on far less favourable boundaries so is hardly somewhere that has suddenly shifted and in as much as it is trending Labour it certainly isn't because of 'wealthy white collar suburbia'. Go on. What do you want me to 'go on' about? Apart from the fact that this is a thread about Rushcliffe and Wycombe has its own thread to discuss that constituency, I tend to leave the stating of the bleeding obvious on here to you. |
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Post by greenhert on May 16, 2020 20:47:42 GMT
Wycombe would have probably gone Labour in 1997 on the current boundaries, in any case it was Labour in 1950 on far less favourable boundaries so is hardly somewhere that has suddenly shifted and in as much as it is trending Labour it certainly isn't because of 'wealthy white collar suburbia'. Wycombe becoming a more popular commuter base did dilute the Labour vote somewhat in the long-term, although because of increasing diversification Wycombe is now trending back to Labour. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2020 20:48:08 GMT
What do you want me to 'go on' about? Apart from the fact that this is a thread about Rushcliffe and Wycombe has its own thread to discuss that constituency, I tend to leave the stating of the bleeding obvious on here to you. I was merely talking about trends in a group of seats bordering conurbations. No need for that tone, Pete. If you have an issue with me, message me directly. |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on May 16, 2020 21:24:34 GMT
Well it links to the earlier point Robert made about Rushcliffe being more marginal than Mansfield and Sherwood. If you compare the general election map from 1935 to 1979 you see remarkable stability, but in the intervening 40+ years things have become so much more volatile. Really? Compare 1935 and 1945. |
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2020 21:38:56 GMT
Well it links to the earlier point Robert made about Rushcliffe being more marginal than Mansfield and Sherwood. If you compare the general election map from 1935 to 1979 you see remarkable stability, but in the intervening 40+ years things have become so much more volatile. Really? Compare 1935 and 1945. The Tories actually did pretty well in 1945, especially when compared to 1997. |
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Post by bjornhattan on May 16, 2020 21:42:00 GMT
Well it links to the earlier point Robert made about Rushcliffe being more marginal than Mansfield and Sherwood. If you compare the general election map from 1935 to 1979 you see remarkable stability, but in the intervening 40+ years things have become so much more volatile. My chief concern is that the Conservatives end up like the US Republican Party, too extreme on issues like immigration to win wealthy white collar suburbia.
And? For every seat like Rushcliffe which moves towards Labour, seats like Mansfield and Sherwood will move towards the Conservatives. And frankly if Labour become more like the US Democrats, who tend towards a sneering metropolitanism and a dislike for those outside of cities, there are plenty more seats the Conservatives could continue to advance in. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2020 21:46:38 GMT
Well it links to the earlier point Robert made about Rushcliffe being more marginal than Mansfield and Sherwood. If you compare the general election map from 1935 to 1979 you see remarkable stability, but in the intervening 40+ years things have become so much more volatile. My chief concern is that the Conservatives end up like the US Republican Party, too extreme on issues like immigration to win wealthy white collar suburbia.
And? For every seat like Rushcliffe which moves towards Labour, seats like Mansfield and Sherwood will move towards the Conservatives. And frankly if Labour become more like the US Democrats, who tend towards a sneering metropolitanism and a dislike for those outside of cities, there are plenty more seats the Conservatives could continue to advance in. Good point. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 16, 2020 21:54:08 GMT
Really? Compare 1935 and 1945. The Tories actually did pretty well in 1945, especially when compared to 1997. Are you aware of just how different the boundaries were in 1945 to 1997, or indeed how different much of the area was? And on the point of stability the lowest number of votes Ken Clarke ever received was 27,074 (oct 74) and the highest was 34,448 (1992) which I think counts as being pretty bloody stable. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on May 16, 2020 22:15:11 GMT
This is one of those constituencies where a substantial share of the 2019 Labour vote is best seen as borrowed, cast as a (probably pretty reluctant for the most part) strategic vote against Brexit. The Conservative floor here really is also very high; the only constituency in Notts with a higher floor is Newark. Labour's new priorities have already been signalled for those who can read, and while there are pockets in this constituency that fit, it really is only pockets.
But I suppose all of this illustrates one of the problems we have now: as voting patterns are volatile in a way they have not been since the 1940s, we can no longer take it as read that tomorrow will look much like today and speculatively project forward from the last General Election into the future. The funny thing is, this does not actually reduce the value of detailed profiling, it increases it: suddenly it is much more useful to know what sort of places exist within each seat, rather than 'X votes for Y'. That's not so useful now, especially as local voting patterns don't always match up with what may have happened at 'issue' General Elections. Although perhaps they may be more relevant to the future.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on May 16, 2020 22:16:42 GMT
And frankly if Labour become more like the US Democrats Which is not going to happen. |
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