East Worthing and Shoreham

[greenhert]

Jul 15, 2021 15:35:53 GMT elinorhelyn said:

Jul 15, 2021 14:59:37 GMT greenhert said:

I wonder what those statistics will be for this seat on 2021 census figures. They are the key reasons why this seat is now a viable Labour target.

This seat won't exist at the next election is any resemble firm.

Not on the initial proposals, no, but it is saveable at the expense of a messier alternative Arundel & Littlehampton seat.

[andrewp]

Jul 15, 2021 15:35:53 GMT elinorhelyn said:

Jul 15, 2021 14:59:37 GMT greenhert said:

I wonder what those statistics will be for this seat on 2021 census figures. They are the key reasons why this seat is now a viable Labour target.

This seat won't exist at the next election is any resemble firm.

If the provisional boundary recommendations are the final ones, then the Worthing seat will be the Labour outside chance/ medium term prospect. It would probably be a better Labour prospect than either of the current seats.  Notional majority of about 7,000 and in the wards in the seat in the initial proposal, there are currently 17 Conservative councillors, 15 Labour and 3 Lib Dem’s. 

[carlton43]

Jul 15, 2021 14:59:37 GMT greenhert said:

Jul 14, 2021 11:47:21 GMT Robert Waller said:

2011 Census

Age 65+ 20.3% 124/650
Owner-occupied 73.8% 95/650
Private rented 13.7% 352/650
Social rented 11.0% 541/650
White 95.0% 320/650
Black 0.6% 329/650
Asian 2.4% 341/650
Managerial & professional 32.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 24.3%
Degree level 23.7% 385/650
No qualifications 23.6% 303 /650
Students 6.0% 490/650


General Election 2019: East Worthing and Shoreham

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Tim Loughton 27,107 51.0 +2.1
Labour Lavinia O'Connor 19,633 37.0 –2.3
Liberal Democrats Ashley Ridley 4,127 7.8 +3.0
Green Leslie Williams 2,006 3.8 +1.4
Independent Sophie Cook 255 0.5

C Majority 7,474 14.0 +4.4

Turnout 53,128 70.7 +0.4

Conservative hold

Swing +2.2 Lab to C

I wonder what those statistics will be for this seat on 2021 census figures. They are the key reasons why this seat is now a viable Labour target.

The crucial indicator there will be the quite good 65+ proportion of the electorate.  If that is dropping, as I suspect, then we have a potential Hove situation.