Post by therealriga on May 7, 2020 16:34:22 GMT
Strangford was created in 1983, largely carved out of the North Down constituency as part of NI's expansion from 12 to 17 seats. In contrast to its parent seat, it has had a more tranquil existence, electing unionist MPs with solid majorities. The main drama in the constituency was provided by the affairs (in every sense of the word) of its sitting member in the late 2000s.
When first created, Strangford consisted of three sections: the first the mainly rural Ards peninsula, the second a mainly urban central section around the town of Newtownards and the nearby market town of Comber, and the third a swathe of south and east Belfast suburbs in the former Castlereagh council. The subsequent boundary reviews have removed the third section and extended the constituency further south, though it has never included the village of Strangford.
In the main, this is a prosperous constituency, consisting of well-to-do farmers and comfortable market towns. The Conservatives had their second best result here at the 1992 election, taking 15% of the vote. During the Northern Ireland Troubles, the constituency saw few incidents of violence and the SDLP have maintained an advantage over Sinn Fein for the small nationalist vote.
Strangford shares some of North Down’s characteristics. It has the third oldest population of NI’s 18 constituencies, with an average age of almost 40. The Catholic community background figure of 17.3% at the 2011 was the third lowest. Like North Down and Belfast East, this has meant that the constituency has never had a nationalist representative at Assembly level. Unlike those two, the SDLP have frequently come close, missing out on a seat by 31 votes in 2007, for example. At Westminster level, this has led to tactical voting for the centrist Alliance party, but this has rarely amounted to more than a distant third place.
The Catholic community is mainly found in the two southern parts of the constituency. The areas around Saintfield and Ballynahinch are around 50% Catholic. The main cluster is at the edge of the Ards Peninsula in Portaferry and Kircubbin, numbering 85% to 90% of the population. North of this, the divide is stark with the Catholic percentage in Ballywalter and Portavogie amounting to barely more than 5% of the population. In the main town of Newtownards it is around the 10% mark, spread evenly, with the exception of the loyalist West Winds estate. The latter is the only pocket of poverty in the constituency, but is not so far below the regional average.
Crime rates and poverty indicators are slightly below the regional average, but so too are educational attainments and the proportion of residents enrolled in higher education. [NOTE 1] In the 2016 Brexit referendum, the constituency backed leave by 55.5%, the second highest figure after North Antrim.
The constituency initially consisted of the whole of the Ards district, together with 12 of Castlereagh’s 19 wards. Most of the latter section was simply an extension of south and east Belfast, consisting of suburban areas like Belvoir, Newtownbreda and the more working-class loyalist Braniel estate.
Controversy arose in 1995. The Boundary Commission proposed reducing Belfast to three seats, with the significant knock on effects reaching as far as western County Tyrone. Strangford was marked for abolition. Its nearest replacement would have been a new Castlereagh & Newtownards seat, comprising the whole of Castlereagh council, 7 wards around Newtownards and 4 wards around Holywood. With every party disadvantaged by this radical reorganisation, Strangford was saved in the local enquiries but still saw substantial changes. The south and east Belfast suburbs were all transferred to Belfast constituencies, but replaced by more suburbs in the form of the 7 wards comprising Dundonald, Gilnahirk and Tullycarnet, previously in North Down. In exchange, Stangford donated 3 wards around Donaghadee to North Down. It also extended south, taking in 3 wards of Down council around Saintfield.
For the 2010 election, the 7 Dundonald wards were transferred to Belfast East. In compensation, Strangford gained 3 more Down wards around the town of Ballynahinch.
In the 1981 local elections, the DUP had polled the most votes in the area, but by 1983 their peak had passed. UUP deputy leader, MEP and former Stormont minister John Taylor won a comfortable victory, beating the DUP by over 7,000 votes. With no unionist opposition for the rest of the 1980s, he received even more massive majorities. The DUP reappeared in 1992, but their candidate, future East Antrim MP Sammy Wilson, could only finish 9,000 votes behind. Taylor won for the last time in 1997. His retirement opened the way for the constituency to change hands.
Strangford had been one of the constituencies more sceptical of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. In the subsequent Assembly elections that year, anti-agreement unionists won 3 of the 6 seats, with the DUP finishing narrowly behind the UUP. In 2001, the new MP, Iris Robinson, wife of the Belfast East MP, took the seat on a swing of over 8%. A further 16% swing in 2005 took her majority beyond 13,000. The solidity of the DUP position was highlighted in the 2007 Assembly elections, when the party won 4 of the 6 seats.
During her time as MP, Robinson courted controversy with her views on social issues. She described homosexuality as “sick” and an “abomination”, suggested that gays should seek psychiatric help and compared them to murderers in need of redemption. She insisted that the duty of government was to “uphold God’s law.” She was also extremely critical of Hilary Clinton’s tolerance of her husband’s affair with Monica Lewinsky: "No woman would put up with [that]. She was thinking only of her future political career. It's all about power and not principle.” All these statements would come back to haunt her.
While Iris Robinson appeared to have a safe seat, scandals ended her career. The economic crisis and expenses controversy of the late 2000s shone a light on the finances of the Robinson family. The revelation that the couple and family members in their employ were receiving an alleged £722,000 per annum in salaries and expenses led to harsh criticism and the press nickname of “Swish family Robinson.”
The killer blow came from an extraordinary scandal dubbed Irisgate. It was revealed that Iris Robinson, then 61 years old, had had an affair with a 19-year-old aspiring businessman and had used her position to secure £50,000 in funding for his business venture, then securing approval of Castlereagh council, where she was a member without declaring her interest. A BBC investigation [NOTE 2] claimed that in exchange, she had demanded and received £5,000 in kickbacks and, after the affair ended, demanded the repayment of the remaining amount, half in the form of a cheque made out to Dundonald's Light 'n Life Church where her sister-in-law was pastor. Further allegations of sexual affairs followed, with the press contrasting them with her previous calls for sexual morality. The situation came to light after she had attempted suicide. The DUP expelled her and she resigned her seat four months before the 2010 election.
This respite and the lack of a by-election helped the new DUP candidate Jim Shannon hold the seat with a reduced majority. He increased this to more comfortable levels in 2015 and 2017, winning by over 18,000 on the latter occasion. The three most recent elections have seen the disappearance of the UUP challenge, with the party polling between 10 and 14%.
The most recent election saw an Alliance upsurge to cut his majority to 7,071, but Shannon was still close to receiving a majority of votes. Alliance’s best opportunity may lie in possible future boundary changes. With constituencies in counties Armagh and Down oversized, a likely change would see the removal of the Ards Peninsula, where the DUP are strong, and an extension further south towards Downpatrick. This would provide plenty of votes, many of them tactical for Alliance. Until this occurs, this will remain a tough nut for Alliance to crack.
NOTE 1: Constituency demographic profile at www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/raise/constituency-profiles/2017/strangford-profile-2017.pdf
NOTE 2: BBC Spotlight documentary on the Iris Robinson scandal:
When first created, Strangford consisted of three sections: the first the mainly rural Ards peninsula, the second a mainly urban central section around the town of Newtownards and the nearby market town of Comber, and the third a swathe of south and east Belfast suburbs in the former Castlereagh council. The subsequent boundary reviews have removed the third section and extended the constituency further south, though it has never included the village of Strangford.
In the main, this is a prosperous constituency, consisting of well-to-do farmers and comfortable market towns. The Conservatives had their second best result here at the 1992 election, taking 15% of the vote. During the Northern Ireland Troubles, the constituency saw few incidents of violence and the SDLP have maintained an advantage over Sinn Fein for the small nationalist vote.
Strangford shares some of North Down’s characteristics. It has the third oldest population of NI’s 18 constituencies, with an average age of almost 40. The Catholic community background figure of 17.3% at the 2011 was the third lowest. Like North Down and Belfast East, this has meant that the constituency has never had a nationalist representative at Assembly level. Unlike those two, the SDLP have frequently come close, missing out on a seat by 31 votes in 2007, for example. At Westminster level, this has led to tactical voting for the centrist Alliance party, but this has rarely amounted to more than a distant third place.
The Catholic community is mainly found in the two southern parts of the constituency. The areas around Saintfield and Ballynahinch are around 50% Catholic. The main cluster is at the edge of the Ards Peninsula in Portaferry and Kircubbin, numbering 85% to 90% of the population. North of this, the divide is stark with the Catholic percentage in Ballywalter and Portavogie amounting to barely more than 5% of the population. In the main town of Newtownards it is around the 10% mark, spread evenly, with the exception of the loyalist West Winds estate. The latter is the only pocket of poverty in the constituency, but is not so far below the regional average.
Crime rates and poverty indicators are slightly below the regional average, but so too are educational attainments and the proportion of residents enrolled in higher education. [NOTE 1] In the 2016 Brexit referendum, the constituency backed leave by 55.5%, the second highest figure after North Antrim.
The constituency initially consisted of the whole of the Ards district, together with 12 of Castlereagh’s 19 wards. Most of the latter section was simply an extension of south and east Belfast, consisting of suburban areas like Belvoir, Newtownbreda and the more working-class loyalist Braniel estate.
Controversy arose in 1995. The Boundary Commission proposed reducing Belfast to three seats, with the significant knock on effects reaching as far as western County Tyrone. Strangford was marked for abolition. Its nearest replacement would have been a new Castlereagh & Newtownards seat, comprising the whole of Castlereagh council, 7 wards around Newtownards and 4 wards around Holywood. With every party disadvantaged by this radical reorganisation, Strangford was saved in the local enquiries but still saw substantial changes. The south and east Belfast suburbs were all transferred to Belfast constituencies, but replaced by more suburbs in the form of the 7 wards comprising Dundonald, Gilnahirk and Tullycarnet, previously in North Down. In exchange, Stangford donated 3 wards around Donaghadee to North Down. It also extended south, taking in 3 wards of Down council around Saintfield.
For the 2010 election, the 7 Dundonald wards were transferred to Belfast East. In compensation, Strangford gained 3 more Down wards around the town of Ballynahinch.
In the 1981 local elections, the DUP had polled the most votes in the area, but by 1983 their peak had passed. UUP deputy leader, MEP and former Stormont minister John Taylor won a comfortable victory, beating the DUP by over 7,000 votes. With no unionist opposition for the rest of the 1980s, he received even more massive majorities. The DUP reappeared in 1992, but their candidate, future East Antrim MP Sammy Wilson, could only finish 9,000 votes behind. Taylor won for the last time in 1997. His retirement opened the way for the constituency to change hands.
Strangford had been one of the constituencies more sceptical of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. In the subsequent Assembly elections that year, anti-agreement unionists won 3 of the 6 seats, with the DUP finishing narrowly behind the UUP. In 2001, the new MP, Iris Robinson, wife of the Belfast East MP, took the seat on a swing of over 8%. A further 16% swing in 2005 took her majority beyond 13,000. The solidity of the DUP position was highlighted in the 2007 Assembly elections, when the party won 4 of the 6 seats.
During her time as MP, Robinson courted controversy with her views on social issues. She described homosexuality as “sick” and an “abomination”, suggested that gays should seek psychiatric help and compared them to murderers in need of redemption. She insisted that the duty of government was to “uphold God’s law.” She was also extremely critical of Hilary Clinton’s tolerance of her husband’s affair with Monica Lewinsky: "No woman would put up with [that]. She was thinking only of her future political career. It's all about power and not principle.” All these statements would come back to haunt her.
While Iris Robinson appeared to have a safe seat, scandals ended her career. The economic crisis and expenses controversy of the late 2000s shone a light on the finances of the Robinson family. The revelation that the couple and family members in their employ were receiving an alleged £722,000 per annum in salaries and expenses led to harsh criticism and the press nickname of “Swish family Robinson.”
The killer blow came from an extraordinary scandal dubbed Irisgate. It was revealed that Iris Robinson, then 61 years old, had had an affair with a 19-year-old aspiring businessman and had used her position to secure £50,000 in funding for his business venture, then securing approval of Castlereagh council, where she was a member without declaring her interest. A BBC investigation [NOTE 2] claimed that in exchange, she had demanded and received £5,000 in kickbacks and, after the affair ended, demanded the repayment of the remaining amount, half in the form of a cheque made out to Dundonald's Light 'n Life Church where her sister-in-law was pastor. Further allegations of sexual affairs followed, with the press contrasting them with her previous calls for sexual morality. The situation came to light after she had attempted suicide. The DUP expelled her and she resigned her seat four months before the 2010 election.
This respite and the lack of a by-election helped the new DUP candidate Jim Shannon hold the seat with a reduced majority. He increased this to more comfortable levels in 2015 and 2017, winning by over 18,000 on the latter occasion. The three most recent elections have seen the disappearance of the UUP challenge, with the party polling between 10 and 14%.
The most recent election saw an Alliance upsurge to cut his majority to 7,071, but Shannon was still close to receiving a majority of votes. Alliance’s best opportunity may lie in possible future boundary changes. With constituencies in counties Armagh and Down oversized, a likely change would see the removal of the Ards Peninsula, where the DUP are strong, and an extension further south towards Downpatrick. This would provide plenty of votes, many of them tactical for Alliance. Until this occurs, this will remain a tough nut for Alliance to crack.
NOTE 1: Constituency demographic profile at www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/raise/constituency-profiles/2017/strangford-profile-2017.pdf
NOTE 2: BBC Spotlight documentary on the Iris Robinson scandal:
