Post by therealriga on May 6, 2020 17:48:57 GMT
North Down is something of an outlier among Northern Ireland seats. Often dubbed “The Gold Coast”, it is the wealthiest and most Protestant of all 18 and its inhabitants are the oldest of any constituency in the region. It is also home to the highest percentage of people born elsewhere in the UK and the highest percentage of people claiming no religious affiliation. The constituency escaped the worst of the Northern Ireland Troubles, with incidents generally confined to feuds between loyalist paramilitary groups over turf. The main local council, North Down borough council, now Ards & North Down, has long been a haven for independents, centrists and minor unionist parties. The combination of these factors has resulted in a quirky constituency, which has mostly rejected the main unionist parties in recent decades.
North Down was first created in 1885, when the two-member Down constituency was split. It was significantly reduced in size for the 1918 election, when County Down received 5 county constituencies. For the 1922 election, the double-member Down constituency was revived. This was replaced by North Down and South Down for 1950. On its recreation, North Down was a sprawling constituency, taking in the towns of Bangor and Newtownards, the Ards Peninsula, commuter territory south and east of Belfast, which later became Castlereagh council, and towns south of Lisburn such as Hillsborough. This left it as the second largest constituency in Northern Ireland and the UK, after South Antrim, with over 121,000 voters in 1970. For the 1974 election, the constituency was slightly reduced in size, losing the Dundonald, Gilnahirk and Tullycarnet areas to Belfast East. When last contested in this form at the 1982 Assembly election, it remained substantially oversized, with nearly 104,000 voters.
The increase of NI’s representation from 12 to 17 seats for the 1983 election cut the electorate by over 40%. An initial proposal by the Boundary Commission to rename the constituency “Loughside” was overturned at local enquiries. The Hillsborough and Carryduff areas were transferred to Lagan Valley, and Saintfield to South Down, while Newtownards and the Ards Peninsula became the nucleus of the new Strangford constituency. In return, North Down regained the areas around Dundonald it had lost in 1974. This left a mostly urban constituency, centred on the town of Bangor, with a salient to the south consisting of Dundonald, Gilnahirk and Tullycarnet: territory generally looking more to East Belfast. This latter section was returned to Belfast East for the 1997 election and replaced by 3 wards around the town of Donaghadee, transferred from Strangford. It was unchanged in the boundary review for the 2010 election.
The 2011 census showed that 12.6% of the population had a Catholic community background, the lowest in NI. The only concentrations of Catholics are in Holywood and around the Brunswick Road in west Bangor. Consequently, North Down borough council was one of only two (of 26, along with Carrickfergus) where nationalist parties failed to win a seat in its 42-year existence. The Westminster constituency is one of only three (together with Strangford and Belfast East) where nationalist parties have never won a seat at Assembly level.
In the 1998 referendum on the Good Friday Agreement, North Down, traditionally one of the NI constituencies with the lowest turnout, saw a turnout of over 80%. This was interpreted as overwhelming support for the agreement. In another unusual result, the constituency backed remain by 52.4% in the 2016 referendum in which NI protestants voted overwhelmingly for leave. Local elections have seen significant fragmentation. The Conservative Party, The Alliance Party, The Green Party and various minor unionist parties including the loyalist PUP have all recorded some of their best vote shares here.
Most of the constituency consists of wealthier areas, especially around the coastal parts, stretching from Holywood to Bangor inclusive. There are some pockets of deprivation, especially the loyalist Kilcooley estate and the areas around Breezemount Rise, south of Bangor centre, but these are still low by regional standards. Rates of crime and unemployment are well below the regional average. [NOTE 1]
Following its 1950 recreation, it remained a very safe seat for the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) who won with massive majorities, often approaching records for Westminster general elections: 97% and 98% of the vote at the 1955 and 1959 elections, when the sole opponent was a Sinn Féin candidate.
The constituency’s tradition of doing things differently began in the 1970s. Former Belfast West MP, James Kilfedder had become the new UUP MP in 1970. In 1977, antagonised by Enoch Powell pushing the UUP closer to a policy of full integration of NI with Great Britain, he quit the UUP. He held his seat easily as an Independent Unionist in 1979, taking nearly 60%, and repeated the feat in 1983. In the latter election, he ran for the Ulster Popular Unionist Party, which he had created with a handful of supporters.
Subsequent elections saw new challengers. The UUP’s move away from integrationism towards support for devolution antagonised another of their local representatives, Assembly member Robert McCartney. Breaking the unionist non-aggression pact which had been agreed in protest at the Anglo-Irish agreement, McCartney stood against Kilfedder in 1987 as a “Real Unionist.” Great interest centred on what was effectively a battle between two strong independents. Kilfedder triumphed, with 45%. McCartney came second with 35%, with the remaining vote going to the centrist Alliance party, who had always regarded the constituency as one of their strongest areas.
McCartney did not stand in 1992, but the integrationist baton passed to the Conservative Party, which had recently begun contesting elections in NI. At the 1989 local elections they became the largest party on North Down borough council. Kilfedder had taken the Conservative Party whip at Westminster, so it was to his chagrin when NI Conservative leader Lawrence Kennedy stood against him. Though Kennedy took 32%, Kilfedder won his contest by nearly 5,000 votes.
Kilfedder died of a heart attack in 1995 amidst rumours that his homosexuality was about to be exposed. [NOTE 2] The subsequent by-election saw the focus return to Robert McCartney who won with DUP backing.
Like his predecessor, McCartney launched his own party, the United Kingdom Unionist Party, which enjoyed moderately more success than Kilfedder’s: winning 5 Assembly seats in 1998. The 1997 boundary changes weakened McCartney, removing his strongest area of Dundonald and his majority was halved to 1,449. Subsequently, McCartney moved closer to the DUP position, joining them in opposing the Good Friday Agreement. This further damaged him in one of the more pro-Agreement constituencies and he lost to the UUP’s Sylvia Hermon by over 7,000 votes in 2001.
Hermon held on in 2005 but, in true North Down tradition, resigned from the UUP before the 2010 election in protest at the party’s pact with the Conservatives. Unusually for an MP representing NI’s most prosperous constituency, Hermon had been one of the more left-leaning UUP representatives and generally voted with the Labour Party in Westminster. This did her no harm at the 2010 election, as she won a thumping majority of 14,364 votes. The elections of 2015 and 2017 saw the DUP emerge as a strong challenger and in the latter election, her majority was cut to 1,208 votes.
At those elections, the UUP had not stood a candidate. When the UUP announced they would contest the seat in 2019, Hermon threw in the towel and announced her retirement. This made the DUP favourites, but their vote remained static and this allowed the Alliance Party candidate Stephen Farry to inherit Hermon’s centrist mantle. He more than quadrupled the Alliance vote to win by nearly 3,000.
Results of future elections will depend on two factors. The first is whether Alliance can solidify the centre vote. The Green Party count this as one of their best areas, holding one of the five Assembly seats since 2007 and polling 10-15% across the Bangor area. Their endorsement will be crucial for Alliance. The second is possible future boundary changes. The likelihood is that the constituency will expand to regain the Ards Peninsula, where the DUP are strong and Alliance weak. To make way for this, the Holywood area, Alliance’s strongest, would probably be removed. Given North Down’s history, no MP or party can rest easily here.
NOTES
1) Constituency statistics: www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/raise/constituency-profiles/2017/north-down-profile-2017.pdf
2) Psephologist Nicholas Whyte’s account of the 1995 by-election: www.ark.ac.uk/elections/fnd95.htm
North Down was first created in 1885, when the two-member Down constituency was split. It was significantly reduced in size for the 1918 election, when County Down received 5 county constituencies. For the 1922 election, the double-member Down constituency was revived. This was replaced by North Down and South Down for 1950. On its recreation, North Down was a sprawling constituency, taking in the towns of Bangor and Newtownards, the Ards Peninsula, commuter territory south and east of Belfast, which later became Castlereagh council, and towns south of Lisburn such as Hillsborough. This left it as the second largest constituency in Northern Ireland and the UK, after South Antrim, with over 121,000 voters in 1970. For the 1974 election, the constituency was slightly reduced in size, losing the Dundonald, Gilnahirk and Tullycarnet areas to Belfast East. When last contested in this form at the 1982 Assembly election, it remained substantially oversized, with nearly 104,000 voters.
The increase of NI’s representation from 12 to 17 seats for the 1983 election cut the electorate by over 40%. An initial proposal by the Boundary Commission to rename the constituency “Loughside” was overturned at local enquiries. The Hillsborough and Carryduff areas were transferred to Lagan Valley, and Saintfield to South Down, while Newtownards and the Ards Peninsula became the nucleus of the new Strangford constituency. In return, North Down regained the areas around Dundonald it had lost in 1974. This left a mostly urban constituency, centred on the town of Bangor, with a salient to the south consisting of Dundonald, Gilnahirk and Tullycarnet: territory generally looking more to East Belfast. This latter section was returned to Belfast East for the 1997 election and replaced by 3 wards around the town of Donaghadee, transferred from Strangford. It was unchanged in the boundary review for the 2010 election.
The 2011 census showed that 12.6% of the population had a Catholic community background, the lowest in NI. The only concentrations of Catholics are in Holywood and around the Brunswick Road in west Bangor. Consequently, North Down borough council was one of only two (of 26, along with Carrickfergus) where nationalist parties failed to win a seat in its 42-year existence. The Westminster constituency is one of only three (together with Strangford and Belfast East) where nationalist parties have never won a seat at Assembly level.
In the 1998 referendum on the Good Friday Agreement, North Down, traditionally one of the NI constituencies with the lowest turnout, saw a turnout of over 80%. This was interpreted as overwhelming support for the agreement. In another unusual result, the constituency backed remain by 52.4% in the 2016 referendum in which NI protestants voted overwhelmingly for leave. Local elections have seen significant fragmentation. The Conservative Party, The Alliance Party, The Green Party and various minor unionist parties including the loyalist PUP have all recorded some of their best vote shares here.
Most of the constituency consists of wealthier areas, especially around the coastal parts, stretching from Holywood to Bangor inclusive. There are some pockets of deprivation, especially the loyalist Kilcooley estate and the areas around Breezemount Rise, south of Bangor centre, but these are still low by regional standards. Rates of crime and unemployment are well below the regional average. [NOTE 1]
Following its 1950 recreation, it remained a very safe seat for the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) who won with massive majorities, often approaching records for Westminster general elections: 97% and 98% of the vote at the 1955 and 1959 elections, when the sole opponent was a Sinn Féin candidate.
The constituency’s tradition of doing things differently began in the 1970s. Former Belfast West MP, James Kilfedder had become the new UUP MP in 1970. In 1977, antagonised by Enoch Powell pushing the UUP closer to a policy of full integration of NI with Great Britain, he quit the UUP. He held his seat easily as an Independent Unionist in 1979, taking nearly 60%, and repeated the feat in 1983. In the latter election, he ran for the Ulster Popular Unionist Party, which he had created with a handful of supporters.
Subsequent elections saw new challengers. The UUP’s move away from integrationism towards support for devolution antagonised another of their local representatives, Assembly member Robert McCartney. Breaking the unionist non-aggression pact which had been agreed in protest at the Anglo-Irish agreement, McCartney stood against Kilfedder in 1987 as a “Real Unionist.” Great interest centred on what was effectively a battle between two strong independents. Kilfedder triumphed, with 45%. McCartney came second with 35%, with the remaining vote going to the centrist Alliance party, who had always regarded the constituency as one of their strongest areas.
McCartney did not stand in 1992, but the integrationist baton passed to the Conservative Party, which had recently begun contesting elections in NI. At the 1989 local elections they became the largest party on North Down borough council. Kilfedder had taken the Conservative Party whip at Westminster, so it was to his chagrin when NI Conservative leader Lawrence Kennedy stood against him. Though Kennedy took 32%, Kilfedder won his contest by nearly 5,000 votes.
Kilfedder died of a heart attack in 1995 amidst rumours that his homosexuality was about to be exposed. [NOTE 2] The subsequent by-election saw the focus return to Robert McCartney who won with DUP backing.
Like his predecessor, McCartney launched his own party, the United Kingdom Unionist Party, which enjoyed moderately more success than Kilfedder’s: winning 5 Assembly seats in 1998. The 1997 boundary changes weakened McCartney, removing his strongest area of Dundonald and his majority was halved to 1,449. Subsequently, McCartney moved closer to the DUP position, joining them in opposing the Good Friday Agreement. This further damaged him in one of the more pro-Agreement constituencies and he lost to the UUP’s Sylvia Hermon by over 7,000 votes in 2001.
Hermon held on in 2005 but, in true North Down tradition, resigned from the UUP before the 2010 election in protest at the party’s pact with the Conservatives. Unusually for an MP representing NI’s most prosperous constituency, Hermon had been one of the more left-leaning UUP representatives and generally voted with the Labour Party in Westminster. This did her no harm at the 2010 election, as she won a thumping majority of 14,364 votes. The elections of 2015 and 2017 saw the DUP emerge as a strong challenger and in the latter election, her majority was cut to 1,208 votes.
At those elections, the UUP had not stood a candidate. When the UUP announced they would contest the seat in 2019, Hermon threw in the towel and announced her retirement. This made the DUP favourites, but their vote remained static and this allowed the Alliance Party candidate Stephen Farry to inherit Hermon’s centrist mantle. He more than quadrupled the Alliance vote to win by nearly 3,000.
Results of future elections will depend on two factors. The first is whether Alliance can solidify the centre vote. The Green Party count this as one of their best areas, holding one of the five Assembly seats since 2007 and polling 10-15% across the Bangor area. Their endorsement will be crucial for Alliance. The second is possible future boundary changes. The likelihood is that the constituency will expand to regain the Ards Peninsula, where the DUP are strong and Alliance weak. To make way for this, the Holywood area, Alliance’s strongest, would probably be removed. Given North Down’s history, no MP or party can rest easily here.
NOTES
1) Constituency statistics: www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/raise/constituency-profiles/2017/north-down-profile-2017.pdf
2) Psephologist Nicholas Whyte’s account of the 1995 by-election: www.ark.ac.uk/elections/fnd95.htm
