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Post by yellowperil on May 2, 2020 15:27:01 GMT
Unless somebody else wants to take this one up, I am proposing to start work on this constituency shortly. It's significantly further away from my home patch than anything I have so far undertaken, and I have no direct political input in this seat, so further from my comfort zone, but I do spend a lot of time in Littlehampton and I have my son (in his 50's) and two grandchildren (in their 30's) as long term residents to call on, and quite a lot of friends, so not too bad there, though I will freely admit to knowing b......r about Bognor. There, I've got in that word association before I start, which I feel has the same inevitability as mentioning "disgusted " in Tunbridge Wells.
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Post by yellowperil on May 3, 2020 15:22:45 GMT
Bognor is in general very Conservative. In landslide Labour years, one or 2 of its wards can be competitive, but not otherwise. Also Bognor is bigger than Littlehampton, and there is a small rural tail. Even in 1997 & 2001, therefore, when Labour would have been up with the Tories in Littlehampton, they were still well short of the Tories in the constituency as a whole, even though they would have been up with the Tories in minority bits of Bognor. Well ,quite. I will try and enlarge on that a bit... Before I start on the profile proper can I just correct the slightly misleading impression given by this post from Barnaby, because he may not have noticed the scale of the turn round locally in May last year. In the 16 wards of Arun council that lie within this constituency, I make it on a quick count (will verify) that in 2015 the Conservatives held 23 seats, the Lib Dems 5, UKIP 4 , Labour 1, and 2 independents. After May I make that 17 Lib Dems, 8 Independents, 7 Conservatives and still the one Labour. That seems to be down 2 overall- I think 2 wards may have gone down from 3-member to 2? Edit- I have now I think sorted out these results in my mind. The 2015 results were I think correct and add up to 35 seats. The 2019 results should also add up to 35 and are actually 18 Lib Dems, 9 Independents, 7 Conservatives .. and still one Labour.I think this was largely about the unpopularity of the former Conservative administration in Arun. Anyway, it is as always a warning not to to take too much notice of local goverment results when assessing general election potential.. |
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Post by yellowperil on May 3, 2020 17:36:41 GMT
This is a constituency, created in 1997, which forms a substantial part of Arun district in West Sussex, but excluding the mainly downland interior of the district around Arundel and also the most easterly part of the coastal strip bordering on Worthing, primarily the small resort of Rustington. That leaves within the constituency a predominanly built up seaside zone, never much more than a couple of miles from the beaches, and much of it devoted to residential use, often retirement related, some rather unflashy tourist activities, and where not built over much of the remaining land given over to some pretty intensive horticulture. A certain amount of light manufacturing is mostly smallish in scale and unobtrusive - the Body Shop establishments in Littlehampton being something of an exception.
Broadly, it could be divided into 4 distinct and almost equal areas, each with their own characteristics. In the west, a fairly non-urbanised area, tending to look towards Chichester, just over the border of the constituency, but also to some extent suburban to Bognor. This comprises the two Aldwick wards, West and East, Pagham a bit futher west and Bersted. one of the few wards not to have its own bit of beach! Then there is Bognor Regis proper,the largest town in the constituency, just, again comprising 4 wards, Pevensey (confusing, that!), Marine, Orchard and Hotham. Further east we come to the third zone, comprising more smallish seaside settlements of Feltham (like Aldwick divided into west and east wards), Middleton -on-Sea and Yapton. Finally we come to the second more substantial resort in Littlehampton, again having 4 wards: Courtwick &Toddington (much easier when it was just called Wick), River, Beach (both appropriately descriptive ward names) and finally Brookfield.
Athough the whole constituency is comfortably Conservative and has been since its creation with the same MP (Nicholas Gibb) returned now for the Conservatives at seven successive general elections with a majority that has grown from a minimum of 5,643 in 2001 to a thumping 22,503 in 2019, Tory support is not uniform over the whole constituency. There is fairly substantial minority support for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats in Littlehampton, and to a lesser degree in Bognor Regis, but away from these larger towns the Conservatives tend to be very dominant. This is a constituency that is far more strongly brexiteer than much of the Sussex coast - certainly in contrast with the Brighton conurbation, but even compared with the East Sussex constituencies like Eastbourne and Hastings. The Leave vote in 2016 was 64.8%. UKIP had got over 10,000 votes and 21% in 2010, but never seriously threatened Conservative control , but the constituency as a whole remained fairly typical of many small seaside resorts with above average elderly population.
The local government vote for Arun district had been for some years overwhelmingly Conservative.In the early years of this century Labour had had a strong presence in Littlehampton, while the Lib Dems had a strongish base in Bognor and a smaller one in Littlehampton -in 2003 there 11 Lib Dem district councillors within the constituency, and 8 Labour, while the Tories, not that far ahead on 14, relied on the overwhelming Conservative vote in the rest of Arun distict outside this constituency to keep their control of the district. This opposition dwindled at each subsequent local election up to 2015, with the Lib Dems collapsing in Bognor and Labour in Littlehampton(to some degree to the Lib Dems), so that in 2015 Labour had only one councillor left, to 5 Lib Dems , 2 independents and 4 UKIP, while the Tories had 23 councillors within the constituency as well as all the others in the rest of Arun. There was however a dramatic turnaround in May 2019 with the Lib Dems taking 18 seats to 7 for the Conservatives and 9 independents and still just one Labour. The Lib Dems pretty well swept the board in both Bognor and Littlehampton towns- 5 LDs and 3 Indies in Bognor, 7 LDs, 2 Tories and 1 Labour in Littlehampton. The Tories were also wiped out in the area west of Bognor which returned 5 Indies and 4 LDs, while the only patch where the Tories really managed to hang on was in the central patch of Felpham and Middleton- altogether in that middle patch there were 5 Tories to 1 Indy and 2 Lib Dems. Any suggestion that this Conservative collapse might presage a similar turn around at the general election 6 months later were soon dashed , of course, with by far the largest Conservative majority yet, as Labour fell back and the Liberal Democrats, while improving , were still in a distant third place.
One problem for the Conservatives in local elections is that Arun district council was often not highly regarded and perceived as remote and impersonal . This was particularly true in the larger towns with quite active and very political town councils, especially Littlehampton, but I think Bognor may now have caught up. At present the representation on the two town councils is : Littlehampton LD 6, Con3, Lab 2, Ind 2; Bognor LD 9, Lab 1, Ind 2 plus 2 independent independents(!), but no Conservatives at all. It may be interesting to see what happens to the Conservative vote in those towns now they are no longer running Arun council.
The county council elections have for some time been showing the strong political divide between those two larger towns and the rest of the constituency. In the last county council elections, with the Lib Dem recovery from the coalition years was only just starting , the Lib Dems took both Littlehampton seats and Bognor east, while the other 5 county council seats were Tory. The pattern was almost back to 2009 when the split had been 4-4, with the Lib Dems then stronger at the Bognor end,taking both Bognor town divisions and Bersted, but in between in 2013 the county results had shown the strong Kipper tendency in this area, with UKIP then having taken 3 divisions, the Lib Dems 3, and with the Conservatives then squeezed between the two and taking only 2.
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Post by froome on May 3, 2020 17:50:24 GMT
This is a constituency, created in 1997, which forms a substantial part of Arun district in West Sussex, but excluding the mainly downland interior of the district around Arundel and also the most easterly part of the coastal strip bordering on Worthing, primarily the small resort of Rustington. That leaves within the constituency a predominanly built up seaside zone, never much more than a couple of miles from the beaches, and much of it devoted to residential use, often retirement related, some rather unflashy tourist activities, and where not built over much of the reamaining land given over to some pretty intensive horticulture. A certain amount of light manufacturing is mostly smallish in scale and unobtrusive - the Body Shop establishments in Littlehampton being something of an exception. Broadly, it could be divided into 4 distinct and almost equal areas, each with their own characteristics. In the west, a fairly non-urbanised area, tending to look towards Chichester, just over the border of the constituency, but also to some extent suburban to Bognor. This comprises the two Aldwick wards, West and East, Pagham a bit futher west and Bersted. one of the few wards not to have its own bit of beach! Then there is Bognor Regis proper,the largest town in the constituency, just, again comprising 4 wards, Pevensey (confusing, that!), Marine, Orchard and Hotham. Further east we come to the third zone, comprising more smallish seaside settlements of Feltham (like Aldwick divided into west and east wards), Middletonon-Sea and Yapton. Finally we come to the second more substantial resort in Littlehampton, again having 4 wards: Courtwick &Toddington (much easier when it was just called Wick), River, Beach (both appropriately descriptive ward names) and finally Brookfield. tbc Hotham ward takes its name from Sir Richard Hotham, who moved to Bognor in 1784 to take the waters for their restorative powers, and bought a vast plot of land to develop into Hothamton, which was to become a resort for the very wealthy. Sadly the waters weren't restorative enough for him and he died in 1799, so only a few grand villas were ever built, and Bognor it remained. The western part of the constituency around Aldwick must contain more private estates with their own, but no public, access to the beach, than any other bit of the urbanised British coastline. |
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Post by yellowperil on May 3, 2020 18:24:36 GMT
This is a constituency, created in 1997, which forms a substantial part of Arun district in West Sussex, but excluding the mainly downland interior of the district around Arundel and also the most easterly part of the coastal strip bordering on Worthing, primarily the small resort of Rustington. That leaves within the constituency a predominanly built up seaside zone, never much more than a couple of miles from the beaches, and much of it devoted to residential use, often retirement related, some rather unflashy tourist activities, and where not built over much of the reamaining land given over to some pretty intensive horticulture. A certain amount of light manufacturing is mostly smallish in scale and unobtrusive - the Body Shop establishments in Littlehampton being something of an exception. Broadly, it could be divided into 4 distinct and almost equal areas, each with their own characteristics. In the west, a fairly non-urbanised area, tending to look towards Chichester, just over the border of the constituency, but also to some extent suburban to Bognor. This comprises the two Aldwick wards, West and East, Pagham a bit futher west and Bersted. one of the few wards not to have its own bit of beach! Then there is Bognor Regis proper,the largest town in the constituency, just, again comprising 4 wards, Pevensey (confusing, that!), Marine, Orchard and Hotham. Further east we come to the third zone, comprising more smallish seaside settlements of Feltham (like Aldwick divided into west and east wards), Middletonon-Sea and Yapton. Finally we come to the second more substantial resort in Littlehampton, again having 4 wards: Courtwick &Toddington (much easier when it was just called Wick), River, Beach (both appropriately descriptive ward names) and finally Brookfield. tbc Hotham ward takes its name from Sir Richard Hotham, who moved to Bognor in 1784 to take the waters for their restorative powers, and bought a vast plot of land to develop into Hothamton, which was to become a resort for the very wealthy. Sadly the waters weren't restorative enough for him and he died in 1799, so only a few grand villas were ever built, and Bognor it remained. The western part of the constituency around Aldwick must contain more private estates with their own, but no public, access to the beach, than any other bit of the urbanised British coastline. Thank you for that. As I've indicated I know Littlehampton very well but Bognor not at all well and the bit west from Bognor scarcely at all until you get over the border into Chichester where I get back on familiar territory, so I'm grateful for those personal touches at that end of the constituency. |
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Post by froome on May 3, 2020 20:11:38 GMT
Hotham ward takes its name from Sir Richard Hotham, who moved to Bognor in 1784 to take the waters for their restorative powers, and bought a vast plot of land to develop into Hothamton, which was to become a resort for the very wealthy. Sadly the waters weren't restorative enough for him and he died in 1799, so only a few grand villas were ever built, and Bognor it remained. The western part of the constituency around Aldwick must contain more private estates with their own, but no public, access to the beach, than any other bit of the urbanised British coastline. Thank you for that. As I've indicated I know Littlehampton very well but Bognor not at all well and the bit west from Bognor scarcely at all until you get over the border into Chichester where I get back on familiar territory, so I'm grateful for those personal touches at that end of the constituency. Thanks. Bognor also has, or at least had when I visited there about ten years ago, a quite wonderful old wireless museum that was worth travelling across the country to see. |
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Post by yellowperil on May 3, 2020 21:52:40 GMT
I have now added substantially to the first draft of the profile here, but there will be a few more things to work on, but I will add a few notes here as to my personal family involvement here of the sort of thing I wouldn't want to put in the actual profile. As I have my eldest son living in Littlehampton and he has been there for more than a quarter of a century and his wife (now ex) came from there and still also lives in the town, as do my two grown up grandchildren from that family. My son(with a degree in Archaeology!)has actually worked mostly as an industrial chemist within the town, first with the Bodyshop and later with Kingfisher who made water purification kits- quite typical of the sort of industry you find in a place like Littlehampton. My (ex) daughter in law and my grandson have both worked in that intensive horticultural industry I referred to in my piece- my grandson in that industry now for over a decade. My granddaughter (her uni course was in veterinary nursing!) worked a good few years at Worthing hospital (not veterinary then) but now works at a call centre in Littlehampton dealing with personal advice (so that's not veterinary either).I now have quite a wide circle of friends in the area, some of my son's generation, some of my grandchildren's and some of my own including my son's (ex)mother in law who he probably now counts among the best of his friends. So I know Littlehampton pretty well, spending several weeks in total in the town most years, and probably best in Courtwick & Toddington ward where my son and grandson both live, and River ward where my granddaughter lives. When in the area but not in Littlehampton I am most likely to spend time in Worthing or in Arundel, and scarcely ever head towards Bognor - I've been through it a few times, that's all.
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Post by yellowperil on May 5, 2020 8:33:50 GMT
I have added a couple of extra paras to the main profile section relating to elections at town council and county council levels, which I view as quite important for understanding politics in Arun. I will in due course add more election and demographic statistics in separate posts.
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Post by yellowperil on May 5, 2020 11:18:47 GMT
I was looking at the May 2019 locals for Arun and this contrast was just striking me - the towns of Littlehampton and Bognor in contrast with the rest of Arun :
Littlehampton: LD 7, Con 2,Lab 1
BognorRegis:LD5, Ind 3
Rest of BR&L constituency: LD 6, Con 5,Ind 5
Rest of Arun district: LD 2, Con 14, GP 2
Total Arun district: LD 20, Con 21, Lab 1, Inds 8, GP2.
It might be added that the other strong LD wards not within the two towns were in closely adjacent areas such as Ardwick , Yapton and Rustington W. The more inland population centres of Arun, outside the BR&L such as Arundel and Angmering, and the coastal patch towards Worthing (e.g. East Rustington,East Preston, Ferring) remain pretty solidly Tory.
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Post by yellowperil on May 7, 2020 8:06:50 GMT
General Election 2019
32,451 63.5% Con (N.Gibb)
10,918 19.6% Lab (A Butcher)
5,645 11.0% LD ( F.Oppler)
1,826 3.6 %GP (C. Burch)
846 1.7% UKIP (D Kurten)
367 0.7% Ind (A. Elst on)
General Election 2017
30,276 59% Con (N.Gibb)
12,782 24.9%Lab ( A. Butcher)
3,352 6.5%LD (F.Oppler)
2,088 4.1% Ind (P.Sanderson)
1,861 3.6% UKIP (P. Lowe)
993 1.9% GP ( A.Bishop)
General Election 2015
24,185 51.3% Con (N.Gibb)
10,241 21.7% UKIP (G.Jones)
6,508 13.8% Lab(A.Butcher)
4,240 9.0% LD (F.Oppler)
1,942 4.1 % GP ( S. McDougall)
General Election 2010
24,087 51.4% Con (N. Gibb)
11,024 23.5% LD (S. McDougall)
6,580 14.0% Lab (M.Jones)
3,036 6.5 % UKIP (D. Denny)
1,890 4.0% BNP (A. Moffat)
235 0.5% Ind (M. Briggs)
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 10, 2021 11:18:26 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 23.9% 22/650
Owner-occupied 70.3% 206/650
Private rented 17.9% 172/650
Social rented 9.8% 595/650
White 96.6% 262/650
Black 0.4 % 394/650
Asian 1.7% 386/650
Managerial & professional 26.7%
Routine & Semi-routine 30.0%
Employed in caring, leisure and other service occupations 13.0% 8/650
Degree level 20.1% 508/650
No qualifications 26.0% 215/650
Students 6.0% 479/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 68.6% 211/573
Private rented 20.9% 179/573
Social rented 10.5% 502/573
White 95.4%
Black 0.6%
Asian 1.8%
Managerial & professional 27.9% 406/573
Routine & Semi-routine 28.2% 138/573
Degree level 24.3% 502/573
No qualifications 21.0% 158/573
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 12, 2022 20:53:20 GMT
In the initial proposals this constituency was to be split into two, with a Bognor Regis seat expanding into Chichester district and Littlehampton being combined in a new Arundel & Littlehampton seat. The revised proposals have done a better job of preserving existing arrangements in this area, though at the expense of splitting Bognor. Bersted and Pagham which are integral if peripheral parts of that town are removed to join Chichester. In their place Rustington on the far side of Littlehampton is addded from Worthing West. All these areas are generally strong for the Conservatives and the partisan effects are minimal. 2019 Notional Result | Con | 32282 | 62.7% | | Lab | 10502 | 20.4% | | LD | 5832 | 11.3% | | Grn | 1789 | 3.5% | | Oth | 1064 | 2.1% |
| | | | Majority | 21780 | 42.3% |
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