Post by BossMan on Apr 18, 2020 22:20:02 GMT
MORLEY AND OUTWOOD
This constituency, which crosses the boundaries of the Leeds and Wakefield boroughs, was created in 2010 from the old Morley & Rothwell and Normanton constituencies. Rothwell was transferred to the new Elmet and Rothwell seat, while Outwood had been part of Normanton, which was split asunder and absorbed by three different West Yorkshire constituencies.
Normanton had been existence since 1885, a working class constituency which had been electing Labour MPs continuously since 1910, and prior to that, Liberal-Labour MPs. Labour’s length of service there was almost unrivalled anywhere else in the UK. Even in their disaster of 1931, they won by over 12,000 votes.
Normanton’s final MP was Ed Balls, elected by over two to one over the Conservatives in 2005. Within a year he found himself fighting a legal challenge along with local newspapers and other Wakefield Labour MPs (including his wife Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Castleford) against the proposed abolition of his seat on the grounds it represented a takeover of the Wakefield district by Leeds district. But the legal challenge was unsuccessful.
Labour also knew that Morley and Outwood would not be as favourable to them as Normanton had been. Ironically, the Conservatives actually seem to underperform in local elections here. Their best ward is Wrenthorpe and Outwood West, which they are competitive in, but so is Labour; there was also a one off UKIP win there in 2014. Stanley and Outwood East, also in Wakefield, has always been Labour except in their low point of 2008.
Analysing local elections in the Leeds part of the constituency has been complicated in recent years by the successful emergence of the Morley Borough Independents (MBI) in 2004, who continue to dominate the two Morley wards today. One perhaps has to go back further to guess how they might vote in general elections. Prior to 2004, it was a Labour inclined area, particularly in its southern ward, which hasn’t returned a Tory since 1976. Morley North was not quite as strongly Labour, and could be won by the Conservatives in a good year. It hasn’t always been plain sailing for the MBI since 2004, however – there was a BNP win in 2006 in Morley South, and Labour managed to get a councillor elected there in 2018 for the first time in many years.
Ardsley and Robin Hood has elected Labour councillors every year since its creation in 2004, although a non negligible Tory vote does exist there, too.
Ed Balls, who was promoted to the Cabinet in Gordon Brown’s government (as was his wife), was selected as Labour candidate for the newly drawn constituency in 2007, knowing it wouldn’t be as secure a seat as his first. In the 2010 general election, which ended 13 years of Labour rule, there was a notional pro-Tory swing of 9.3%, well above the national average. Balls survived by just 1,101 votes.
He continued to serve on Labour’s front bench, and was Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer under Ed Miliband. Opinion polls for most of the 2010-2015 Parliament were suggesting Labour gains and another hung Parliament. But things rapidly slipped away on General Election Night 2015, when the Conservatives pulled off a surprise victory. Balls lost his seat to Conservative candidate Andrea Jenkyns in 2015, by 422 votes in what was perhaps the most symbolic result of that election.
Morley and Outwood was estimated to have voted almost 60% in favour of leaving the EU in the 2016 referendum. Andrea Jenkyns increased her majority to 2,104 in 2017, having built up an incumbency vote of her own and withstanding the Corbyn surge that year. In 2019, after two and a half years of parliamentary stasis, the Conservatives fought on a “Get Brexit Done” campaign, and the Tory majority jumped to 11,267. Brexit and Corbyn will have been factors, but this seat seems more like a commuter belt than the working class Labour stronghold it once was. We will find out in a few years if there is any way back for Labour here or not.
This constituency, which crosses the boundaries of the Leeds and Wakefield boroughs, was created in 2010 from the old Morley & Rothwell and Normanton constituencies. Rothwell was transferred to the new Elmet and Rothwell seat, while Outwood had been part of Normanton, which was split asunder and absorbed by three different West Yorkshire constituencies.
Normanton had been existence since 1885, a working class constituency which had been electing Labour MPs continuously since 1910, and prior to that, Liberal-Labour MPs. Labour’s length of service there was almost unrivalled anywhere else in the UK. Even in their disaster of 1931, they won by over 12,000 votes.
Normanton’s final MP was Ed Balls, elected by over two to one over the Conservatives in 2005. Within a year he found himself fighting a legal challenge along with local newspapers and other Wakefield Labour MPs (including his wife Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Castleford) against the proposed abolition of his seat on the grounds it represented a takeover of the Wakefield district by Leeds district. But the legal challenge was unsuccessful.
Labour also knew that Morley and Outwood would not be as favourable to them as Normanton had been. Ironically, the Conservatives actually seem to underperform in local elections here. Their best ward is Wrenthorpe and Outwood West, which they are competitive in, but so is Labour; there was also a one off UKIP win there in 2014. Stanley and Outwood East, also in Wakefield, has always been Labour except in their low point of 2008.
Analysing local elections in the Leeds part of the constituency has been complicated in recent years by the successful emergence of the Morley Borough Independents (MBI) in 2004, who continue to dominate the two Morley wards today. One perhaps has to go back further to guess how they might vote in general elections. Prior to 2004, it was a Labour inclined area, particularly in its southern ward, which hasn’t returned a Tory since 1976. Morley North was not quite as strongly Labour, and could be won by the Conservatives in a good year. It hasn’t always been plain sailing for the MBI since 2004, however – there was a BNP win in 2006 in Morley South, and Labour managed to get a councillor elected there in 2018 for the first time in many years.
Ardsley and Robin Hood has elected Labour councillors every year since its creation in 2004, although a non negligible Tory vote does exist there, too.
Ed Balls, who was promoted to the Cabinet in Gordon Brown’s government (as was his wife), was selected as Labour candidate for the newly drawn constituency in 2007, knowing it wouldn’t be as secure a seat as his first. In the 2010 general election, which ended 13 years of Labour rule, there was a notional pro-Tory swing of 9.3%, well above the national average. Balls survived by just 1,101 votes.
He continued to serve on Labour’s front bench, and was Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer under Ed Miliband. Opinion polls for most of the 2010-2015 Parliament were suggesting Labour gains and another hung Parliament. But things rapidly slipped away on General Election Night 2015, when the Conservatives pulled off a surprise victory. Balls lost his seat to Conservative candidate Andrea Jenkyns in 2015, by 422 votes in what was perhaps the most symbolic result of that election.
Morley and Outwood was estimated to have voted almost 60% in favour of leaving the EU in the 2016 referendum. Andrea Jenkyns increased her majority to 2,104 in 2017, having built up an incumbency vote of her own and withstanding the Corbyn surge that year. In 2019, after two and a half years of parliamentary stasis, the Conservatives fought on a “Get Brexit Done” campaign, and the Tory majority jumped to 11,267. Brexit and Corbyn will have been factors, but this seat seems more like a commuter belt than the working class Labour stronghold it once was. We will find out in a few years if there is any way back for Labour here or not.
