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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Apr 18, 2020 11:21:57 GMT
10 electoral college votes
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Post by greenhert on Apr 18, 2020 20:24:07 GMT
A key state by any means and one which has been shifting significantly to the Republican fold in the last decade-one to watch.
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Richard Allen
Non-Aligned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 17,078
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 19, 2020 9:33:12 GMT
Wisconsin has trended GOP significantly because it's rural areas have shifted towards the GOP in similar fashion to in so many other states while the ruby red Milwaukee suburbs have remained resolutely loyal in a way that has not happened in so many other states. This year's state supreme court election was the first sign of cracks in GOP suburban support. Obviously one election does not make a trend but Trump can ill afford any dent to his numbers in the WOW counties.
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Post by conservativeestimate on Apr 19, 2020 9:52:49 GMT
Wisconsin has trended GOP significantly because it's rural areas have shifted towards the GOP in similar fashion to in so many other states while the ruby red Milwaukee suburbs have remained resolutely loyal in a way that has not happened in so many other states. This year's state supreme court election was the first sign of cracks in GOP suburban support. Obviously one election does not make a trend but Trump can ill afford any dent to his numbers in the WOW counties. Why have the WOW counties stayed competitive for Republicans while suburban counties in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania have turned Democratic? |
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Richard Allen
Non-Aligned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 17,078
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 19, 2020 11:08:10 GMT
Wisconsin has trended GOP significantly because it's rural areas have shifted towards the GOP in similar fashion to in so many other states while the ruby red Milwaukee suburbs have remained resolutely loyal in a way that has not happened in so many other states. This year's state supreme court election was the first sign of cracks in GOP suburban support. Obviously one election does not make a trend but Trump can ill afford any dent to his numbers in the WOW counties. Why have the WOW counties stayed competitive for Republicans while suburban counties in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania have turned Democratic? This is a matter that has been discussed at length and I have never seen a particularly satisfactory answer beyond the simple observation that even by US standards Milwaukee is incredibly divided between city and suburb. In most cities there is a substantial grey area between the undeniably urban and the obviously suburban. In parts of Milwaukee you seemingly go from inner city to suburbs just by crossing a road. Politically this appears to be breaking down inside Milwaukee county itself with some of the non city parts clearly trending towards the Democrats. Whether this will spread into the WOW counties is open to question. |
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Post by adlai52 on Apr 19, 2020 11:58:37 GMT
Why have the WOW counties stayed competitive for Republicans while suburban counties in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania have turned Democratic? This is a matter that has been discussed at length and I have never seen a particularly satisfactory answer beyond the simple observation that even by US standards Milwaukee is incredibly divided between city and suburb. In most cities there is a substantial grey area between the undeniably urban and the obviously suburban. In parts of Milwaukee you seemingly go from inner city to suburbs just by crossing a road. Politically this appears to be breaking down inside Milwaukee county itself with some of the non city parts clearly trending towards the Democrats. Whether this will spread into the WOW counties is open to question. Might Scott Walker deserve some of the credit for this? Although divisive, the WOW counties were his base when he was first elected Governor and he and the WI GOP (including pols like Paul Ryan) were always heavily focused on maintaining suburban support, even as the party expanded its support into traditionally Democrat areas of the state. |
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 19, 2020 13:24:23 GMT
This is a matter that has been discussed at length and I have never seen a particularly satisfactory answer beyond the simple observation that even by US standards Milwaukee is incredibly divided between city and suburb. In most cities there is a substantial grey area between the undeniably urban and the obviously suburban. In parts of Milwaukee you seemingly go from inner city to suburbs just by crossing a road. Politically this appears to be breaking down inside Milwaukee county itself with some of the non city parts clearly trending towards the Democrats. Whether this will spread into the WOW counties is open to question. Might Scott Walker deserve some of the credit for this? Although divisive, the WOW counties were his base when he was first elected Governor and he and the WI GOP (including pols like Paul Ryan) were always heavily focused on maintaining suburban support, even as the party expanded its support into traditionally Democrat areas of the state. The WOW counties were part of the Republican path long before Walker, and it was them trending away from him in 2014 (relative to the rest of WI) and especially 2018 (in both relative and absolute terms) that denied him a third term. |
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jamie
Forum Regular
Posts: 4,969 
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Post by jamie on Apr 19, 2020 15:45:50 GMT
A few points on the Milwaukee suburbs:
The WOW suburbs are not really suburbs, more exurbs. Parts of these counties are difficult to even describe as exurban, theyre effectively rural. Milwaukee’s actual suburbs are mostly within Milwaukee county itself.
They nonetheless saw a substantial trend towards the Democrats in 2016. The change in margin relative to the country was 2% more Democrat in Washington, 10% in Waukesha, and 14% in Ozaukee.
Republican strength in the Milwaukee suburbs/exurbs relative to similar states is balanced out by relative weakness in the rural areas, particularly the western part of the state. Comparisons with other states suggest Democrats still have a lot of room to fall in these areas, but the same could easily be said about the Milwaukee suburbs.
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Post by MacShimidh on Jun 24, 2020 17:55:57 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 24, 2020 18:26:55 GMT
Crosstab health warning, but these numbers suggest the Milwaukee suburbs are finally cracking as Richard Allen predicted they might (even ignoring those crosstabs, the Milwaukee burbs constitute a plausible source for the growth required for a D+9% margin like this. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Jul 24, 2020 14:40:36 GMT
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sol
Non-Aligned
Posts: 16
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Post by sol on Jul 25, 2020 14:17:10 GMT
This is definitely the toughest nut to crack of the big Rust Belt flips, but if current conditions hold I think Biden probably will win it reasonably. It'll be interesting to see to what extent a Biden here will look like the pattern of support achieved by Obama; rural Wisconsin is absolutely filled with swingable voters.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Aug 11, 2020 18:24:08 GMT
WISCONSIN
Among Registered Voters:
Biden 50%
Trump 45%
.
Among Likely Voters:
Biden 50%
Trump 46%
MULawPoll 8/4-9
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
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Post by johng on Aug 14, 2020 1:04:50 GMT
Poll out from Rasmussen/Pulse Opinion. Pretty shocking numbers for what is seen as a pro-GOP pollster. Their numbers are all over the place at the moment though and I am not too sure they can be taken seriously at all. Still, for them to show Biden +12 is a shocker.
Biden - 55%
Trump - 43%
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 14, 2020 2:03:11 GMT
Poll out from Rasmussen/Pulse Opinion. Pretty shocking numbers for what is seen as a pro-GOP pollster. Their numbers are all over the place at the moment though and I am not too sure they can be taken seriously at all. Still, for them to show Biden +12 is a shocker. Biden - 55% Trump - 43% They were considerate enough to ask Wisconsinites what they thought of (Pennsylvania Governor) Tom Wolf, or so their poll claims. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
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Post by johng on Sept 3, 2020 0:23:58 GMT
This is definitely a tougher nut for Biden to crack than Michigan, though the polls seem to suggest he's well ahead.
New Fox News poll for Wisconsin.
President
Biden - 50%
Trump - 42%
Opinium have decided to have a go at the US market. Actually, multiple UK pollsters seem to be doing the same for the first time this year.
President
Biden - 53%
Trump - 40%
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Wisconsin
Sept 3, 2020 0:47:27 GMT
via mobile
Post by timmullen1 on Sept 3, 2020 0:47:27 GMT
The Biden’s are visiting Kenosha today.
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Post by Izzyeviel on Sept 7, 2020 19:39:07 GMT
Trump is closing the gap after spending bigly here.
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 7, 2020 19:57:12 GMT
Trump is closing the gap after spending bigly here. Doesn’t really seem to be borne out by the polling, which is fairly steady at Biden +6 and touching 48-50%, although Rasmussen has Biden +10 today, which given their Republican house bias would mean he’s about +14 (obviously he isn’t, that was sarcasm). Cohn I assume is alluding to the theory amongst some in Trump’s campaign that he can still swamp Biden with white men without college degrees, despite every poll showing Biden eating a couple of percentage points out of that group, which would be terminal to Trump in WI, MI and PA assuming Biden only matched Clinton’s numbers when the indications are that he’s beating them. |
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Post by Izzyeviel on Sept 7, 2020 20:01:54 GMT
Rasmussen had him behind by 12 a few weeks ago... that's all im saying...
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