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Post by pragmaticidealist on Oct 14, 2020 18:43:38 GMT
A swing of 14%, which if repeated across the country would give Biden a popular vote victory of...30%. |
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heat
Labour
Polish social democrat in Aberdeen
Posts: 169 
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Post by heat on Oct 15, 2020 14:42:12 GMT
The most immediately interesting thing (although it would be very interesting in general if these polls bear out) is the effect on House races. WV-02 and 03 have had little attention and no polling this cycle but if the state is swinging this hard, can they really be considered out of reach?
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Post by heslingtonian on Oct 28, 2020 7:25:17 GMT
This one time safe Democrat state might well be Trump's safest this time. Trump 62%, Biden 37%
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 4, 2020 16:33:43 GMT
Basically a extinction event for WV Dems..
GOP have gained a supermajority in the house of delegates, and Treasurer Perdue was defeated leaving Manchin as the only statewide Dem.
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Richard Allen
Non-Aligned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 4, 2020 19:26:55 GMT
Basically a extinction event for WV Dems.. GOP have gained a supermajority in the house of delegates, and Treasurer Perdue was defeated leaving Manchin as the only statewide Dem. West Virginia is now dead for the Democrats, no ifs buts or maybes, it is gone. I don't think even Manchin can hold on in 4 years time and so will probably retire (he will be 77) to avoid his career ending in defeat. |
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Merseymike
Independent
Don't vote. It only encourages them.
Posts: 30,219
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 4, 2020 19:30:49 GMT
Basically a extinction event for WV Dems.. GOP have gained a supermajority in the house of delegates, and Treasurer Perdue was defeated leaving Manchin as the only statewide Dem. West Virginia is now dead for the Democrats, no ifs buts or maybes, it is gone. I don't think even Manchin can hold on in 4 years time and so will probably retire (he will be 77) to avoid his career ending in defeat. Mind you, there are states which are the opposite such as California |
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 4, 2020 19:32:48 GMT
West Virginia is now dead for the Democrats, no ifs buts or maybes, it is gone. I don't think even Manchin can hold on in 4 years time and so will probably retire (he will be 77) to avoid his career ending in defeat. Mind you, there are states which are the opposite such as California The trouble is that those tend to be the bigger ones and fewer in number. If Democrats don't take the Senate this year, they probably won't see a trifecta for a long time. |
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Richard Allen
Non-Aligned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 17,078
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 4, 2020 19:33:49 GMT
West Virginia is now dead for the Democrats, no ifs buts or maybes, it is gone. I don't think even Manchin can hold on in 4 years time and so will probably retire (he will be 77) to avoid his career ending in defeat. Mind you, there are states which are the opposite such as California Well of course, and California with 53 members of the House of Representatives and 55 electoral voters, is just slightly the more valuable of the two. |
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Merseymike
Independent
Don't vote. It only encourages them.
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 4, 2020 19:35:50 GMT
Mind you, there are states which are the opposite such as California The trouble is that those tend to be the bigger ones and fewer in number. If Democrats don't take the Senate this year, they probably won't see a trifecta for a long time. It's back to the problem with the American system again where the senate is dominated by small, thinly populated states which are more likely to be Republican. If they didn't worship their constitution reform might be possible |
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Post by relique on Nov 4, 2020 19:44:38 GMT
The trouble is that those tend to be the bigger ones and fewer in number. If Democrats don't take the Senate this year, they probably won't see a trifecta for a long time. It's back to the problem with the American system again where the senate is dominated by small, thinly populated states which are nowadays more likely to be Republican. If they didn't worship their constitution reform might be possible Corrected for you.
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,525
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Post by Rural Radical on Nov 4, 2020 20:00:20 GMT
Basically a extinction event for WV Dems.. GOP have gained a supermajority in the house of delegates, and Treasurer Perdue was defeated leaving Manchin as the only statewide Dem. West Virginia is now dead for the Democrats, no ifs buts or maybes, it is gone. I don't think even Manchin can hold on in 4 years time and so will probably retire (he will be 77) to avoid his career ending in defeat. Isn’t West Virginia due to lose a congressional district ? |
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jamie
Forum Regular
Posts: 4,969
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Post by jamie on Nov 4, 2020 20:27:41 GMT
Not to be contrarian, but West Virginia was actually a relatively good result for Biden. He got a 3% swing and made noticeable improvements in the north/west of the state, improvements that immediately stopped at the border with Pennsylvania and especially Ohio, the other side of which saw the opposite.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Member is Online
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 4, 2020 20:37:39 GMT
Basically a extinction event for WV Dems.. GOP have gained a supermajority in the house of delegates, and Treasurer Perdue was defeated leaving Manchin as the only statewide Dem. Quick scan through the results: they actually held on to a clutch of seats where (again) Trump polled extremely high percentages (while, of course, losing others with the same profile, plus yet others with less lopsided Presidential totals). There's no particular pattern to this: one would, for instance, certainly not have picked a partially Mingo seat as a holdout. This is definitely a place where - for now - the Democrats are a lot better off in a low turnout environment. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Nov 8, 2020 10:10:52 GMT
Trump appears to have won every county here. If any state could be described as Trump Country it would be West Virginia
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
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Post by johng on Nov 8, 2020 10:22:54 GMT
Trump appears to have won every county here. If any state could be described as Trump Country it would be West Virginia Hardly surprising. Democrats last won a county here in 2008.
Monongalia county was very close though. Biden is within a point of Trump when Hilary lost it by 10.
Not too surprising really. It contains the state's largest university and is one of those rare things in West Virginia - a county with a growing population.
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Post by swanarcadian on Nov 8, 2020 11:10:06 GMT
I heard the song Take Me Home Country Roads being sung by a family a few gardens down from me the other night. Obviously I can't be sure why they were singing it, but if it was to celebrate the Biden victory it is amusing given how solidly red this state is. Perhaps they were Trump supporters singing in defiance, who knows.
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finsobruce
Labour
Five people have watched this in the last hour.
Posts: 31,145
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 8, 2020 11:14:27 GMT
I heard the song Take Me Home Country Roads being sung by a family a few gardens down from me the other night. Obviously I can't be sure why they were singing it, but if it was to celebrate the Biden victory it is amusing given how solidly red this state is. Perhaps they were Trump supporters singing in defiance, who knows. Maybe they associate it with Denver?  |
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 8, 2020 11:20:22 GMT
Not to be contrarian, but West Virginia was actually a relatively good result for Biden. He got a 3% swing and made noticeable improvements in the north/west of the state, improvements that immediately stopped at the border with Pennsylvania and especially Ohio, the other side of which saw the opposite. Future gubernatorial elections and state elections could still be competitive here, even if federal ones are not. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Dec 1, 2020 12:22:17 GMT
Final certified results:
Trump 545,382 (68.6%)
Biden 235,984 (29.7%)
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 11,796
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Post by john07 on Dec 3, 2020 1:29:06 GMT
I heard the song Take Me Home Country Roads being sung by a family a few gardens down from me the other night. Obviously I can't be sure why they were singing it, but if it was to celebrate the Biden victory it is amusing given how solidly red this state is. Perhaps they were Trump supporters singing in defiance, who knows. Maybe they associate it with Denver? Denver certainly clashed with Ronald Reagan on environmental and peace issues. Reagan did award him the Presidential World Without Hunger Award in 1987. Denver also praised Bill Clinton. Of course, back then, West Virgina was a very solid Democrat State and remained so until G W Bush first edged it (52%/46%) in 2000. Prior to that, West Virginia voted Democrat in every election from 1932 onwards apart from Eisenhower in 1956, Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984. |
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