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Utah
Apr 18, 2020 11:19:28 GMT
Post by Admin Twaddleford on Apr 18, 2020 11:19:28 GMT
6 electoral college votes
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Post by thirdchill on Jun 18, 2020 13:11:17 GMT
Despite the odd poll showing that the gap is not that wide, it really is not wise for the Democrats to be targeting this for the Presidential level.
It is not likely to be a tipping point seat, Democrats will be heading for a landslide if they win this. Also even if they win it, chances are it will only stay Democrat for 1 term and revert to becoming Republican again in 2024. Trump is uniquely unpopular in Utah, pretty much any other Republican candidate would win this state by a country mile.
The only thing they should be doing here is campaigning enough in the 4th Congressional District to ensure they hold it. If the presidential poll is that close, holding this district is nailed on. A result where the Democrats poll in at least the mid-30's statewide should definitely be enough to hold it.
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Utah
Jun 18, 2020 13:32:18 GMT
Post by conservativeestimate on Jun 18, 2020 13:32:18 GMT
Bluetah
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group" - Douglas Adams
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 18, 2020 15:28:59 GMT
Not in US terms - remember they use the colours the "wrong" way round. |
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Utah
Aug 28, 2020 20:06:25 GMT
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dizz likes this
Post by conservativeestimate on Aug 28, 2020 20:06:25 GMT
Evan McMullin endorses Biden
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Utah
Aug 29, 2020 17:45:45 GMT
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 29, 2020 17:45:45 GMT
Would a Romney endorsement of Biden have any impact here? It seems plausible that it may happen.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 29, 2020 18:05:27 GMT
Would a Romney endorsement of Biden have any impact here? It seems plausible that it may happen. It would definitely help (look at the 2008 to 2012 swing) but would probably still not be enough and do too much damage to Romney’s political future for it to be worth it. |
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Utah
Aug 29, 2020 19:26:22 GMT
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 29, 2020 19:26:22 GMT
Would a Romney endorsement of Biden have any impact here? It seems plausible that it may happen. It would definitely help (look at the 2008 to 2012 swing) but would probably still not be enough and do too much damage to Romney’s political future for it to be worth it. You are assuming Romney has a future in today's Republican Party. He is essentially a hate figure for the Trumpists who have a stranglehold over the Party. |
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Utah
Aug 29, 2020 19:40:27 GMT
Post by timmullen1 on Aug 29, 2020 19:40:27 GMT
It would definitely help (look at the 2008 to 2012 swing) but would probably still not be enough and do too much damage to Romney’s political future for it to be worth it. You are assuming Romney has a future in today's Republican Party. He is essentially a hate figure for the Trumpists who have a stranglehold over the Party. Not sure a Romney endorsement would be greatly significant vote wise, although it might reassure some of those ex-Republicans who don't want to vote for Trump that Biden's a safe place to park their vote. As for his future, I think Trump's not won over Utah Republicans in the same way as he has in other places, and Romney, at best, only has one more Primary contest pre-retirement, which if he organises in the way Orrin Hatch did in his last election, he could probably get through. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Aug 29, 2020 23:27:32 GMT
It would definitely help (look at the 2008 to 2012 swing) but would probably still not be enough and do too much damage to Romney’s political future for it to be worth it. You are assuming Romney has a future in today's Republican Party. He is essentially a hate figure for the Trumpists who have a stranglehold over the Party. He clearly has a future in Utah's Republican Party. |
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Utah
Aug 30, 2020 1:07:55 GMT
Post by curiousliberal on Aug 30, 2020 1:07:55 GMT
You are assuming Romney has a future in today's Republican Party. He is essentially a hate figure for the Trumpists who have a stranglehold over the Party. He clearly has a future in Utah's Republican Party. It's not that clear (the Utah GOP is one of the few state parties to have successfully primaried a sitting Senator, albeit at a convention), but if he has a significant future anywhere, it'd be there. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 30, 2020 2:12:09 GMT
He clearly has a future in Utah's Republican Party. It's not that clear (the Utah GOP is one of the few state parties to have successfully primaried a sitting Senator, albeit at a convention), but if he has a significant future anywhere, it'd be there. That’s why I used the Hatch example; Robert Bennett didn’t take the State Caucus seriously and didn’t get enough votes to force a conventional primary against Mike Lee, whereas Hatch spent the two years before the Caucus signing up his supporters as delegates to make sure that worst case scenario he got to a Primary - I suspect Romney, should he want a second term, would be more Hatch than Bennett. (Also worth noting that Trump performs badly with Mormons everywhere, not just Utah, so his weakness amongst them allows Romney the room to be more critical than others). |
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The Bishop
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Utah
Aug 30, 2020 10:38:31 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Aug 30, 2020 10:38:31 GMT
Romney is of course also 73, so worries about his political future might not now be as prominent as they once would have been.
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 30, 2020 10:41:37 GMT
Romney is of course also 73 now, so worries about his political future might not now be as prominent as they once would have been. He's lived a Mormon lifestyle so doesn't look 73 and I think it's odds-on that he goes for at least one more Senate term. |
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Utah
Oct 19, 2020 20:37:38 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Oct 19, 2020 20:37:38 GMT
House (Utah 4)
Owens (R) 46%
McAdams (D) 45%
10/12-10/17 by RMG Research
800 LV
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CatholicLeft
Co-operative Party
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Utah
Oct 19, 2020 21:53:32 GMT
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 19, 2020 21:53:32 GMT
House (Utah 4) Owens (R) 46% McAdams (D) 45% 10/12-10/17 by RMG Research 800 LV Good to see it so close. |
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Post by David Boothroyd on Oct 20, 2020 14:09:54 GMT
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Utah
Oct 28, 2020 7:17:30 GMT
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Post by heslingtonian on Oct 28, 2020 7:17:30 GMT
Reckoned to be the only state where the Trump vote is likely to increase v 2016 due to Evan McMullin not standing. Trump 56%, Biden 42%
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Utah
Nov 5, 2020 3:05:14 GMT
Post by Izzyeviel on Nov 5, 2020 3:05:14 GMT
Bit of an interesting result so far. 80% in with Salt Lake (i think) still to come. Trump 58% 630k, Biden 38% 411k. In 2012 it was Romney with 72%, Obama 28%. Bit of a Mormon revolt - seems to have spilled over into Arizona.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Utah
Nov 5, 2020 12:41:19 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Nov 5, 2020 12:41:19 GMT
Bit of an interesting result so far. 80% in with Salt Lake (i think) still to come. Trump 58% 630k, Biden 38% 411k. In 2012 it was Romney with 72%, Obama 28%. Bit of a Mormon revolt - seems to have spilled over into Arizona. If so, the gap could narrow a bit further. The days when this was *the* safest GOP state do seem to be over for the time being. |
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