Texas

[nelson]

Aug 25, 2020 0:42:43 GMT European Lefty said:

Aug 25, 2020 0:08:25 GMT johng said:

It's a tough one, though I can't see Trump's margin being quite that large. The 2018 senate race was 50.9% vs 48.3%. I imagine the margin will be similar to that. Biden will really be hurt here by the poor senate campaign.

However that was a midterm election in a situation where the Democrats were uniquely strong and the Republicans uniquely weak. I'm not sure it will be that bad for the Republicans, especially in a presidential year

The Democrats do better in presidential years than in midterms. The GOP is weaker now due to Corona and mass unemployment than in 2018. 

[nelson]

Aug 24, 2020 22:45:09 GMT Izzyeviel said:

If Biden gets within 4% i'll eat my hat.

That's by far the most likely result so a strange promise. 

[curiousliberal]

Aug 25, 2020 11:37:38 GMT nelson said:

Aug 25, 2020 0:42:43 GMT European Lefty said:

However that was a midterm election in a situation where the Democrats were uniquely strong and the Republicans uniquely weak. I'm not sure it will be that bad for the Republicans, especially in a presidential year

The Democrats do better in presidential years than in midterms. The GOP is weaker now due to Corona and mass unemployment than in 2018. 

What tends to happen in presidential years relative to midterms is higher turnout in urban core and rural areas relative to affluent suburbs. That helped when the Democrats had more of a "doughnut" coalition, but their suburban strategy means the Republicans are likely to suffer less this time. The GOP is weaker now anyway and the polling suggests it'll be much worse for them - the House vote in 2018 was D+8, but if one accounts for uncontested seats, it's more like D+6.

Hispanics will probably trend Republican given the massive and overlooked swings among white voters and higher black turnout but polls specifically of Latino voters as opposed to subsamples indicate that, post-VP pick, Biden will at least achieve a small swing in his direction with this group from 2016's numbers.

[thinwhiteduke]

TEXAS
Trump 50%
Biden 45%

TXsen:
Cornyn (R-inc) 50%
Hegar (D) 42%

QuinnipiacPoll, LV, 9/17-21

[johng]

Siena College/ NYT (LV) 16-22/9
Trump 46%
Biden 43%

TXsen:
Cornyn (R) 43%
Hegar (D) 37%


This state will be a lot closer that last time, but it's hard to see Biden outperforming Beto's 48%. Again poor Senate figures. Cornyn is the incumbent but, with Siena's weak voter push, he gets a really low score running gar behind Trump- not exactly a good sign and he's lucky he doesn't have a strong opponent.
Unlike AZ, IA and NC, it seems Biden will outpoll the senate candidate here.

[nelson]

Sept 24, 2020 19:30:18 GMT johng said:

This state will be a lot closer that last time, but it's hard to see Biden outperforming Beto's 48%. Again poor Senate figures. Cornyn is the incumbent but, with Siena's weak voter push, he gets a really low score running gar behind Trump- not exactly a good sign and he's lucky he doesn't have a strong opponent.
Unlike AZ, IA and NC, it seems Biden will outpoll the senate candidate here.

I disagree. Beto's fine result led to a big voter registration push which has expanded their base and the Democrats have a much better GOTV network than in 2018, demographic trends in the state generally favour the Democrats and Trump is significantly less popular in suburbia than Ted Cruz was. It will mostly depend on whether Trump improves his numbers with Hispanics enough to counter loses among college educated whites and the Democrats' increased base. Likely voter models will tend to underestimate the number of new voters in states like TX and GA where big registration campaigns have taken place. 

[CatholicLeft]

Sept 24, 2020 22:55:59 GMT nelson said:

Sept 24, 2020 19:30:18 GMT johng said:

This state will be a lot closer that last time, but it's hard to see Biden outperforming Beto's 48%. Again poor Senate figures. Cornyn is the incumbent but, with Siena's weak voter push, he gets a really low score running gar behind Trump- not exactly a good sign and he's lucky he doesn't have a strong opponent.
Unlike AZ, IA and NC, it seems Biden will outpoll the senate candidate here.

I disagree. Beto's fine result led to a big voter registration push which has expanded their base and the Democrats have a much better GOTV network than in 2018, demographic trends in the state generally favour the Democrats and Trump is significantly less popular in suburbia than Ted Cruz was. It will mostly depend on whether Trump improves his numbers with Hispanics enough to counter loses among college educated whites and the Democrats' increased base. Likely voter models will tend to underestimate the number of new voters in states like TX and GA where big registration campaigns have taken place. 

Around 1.5 million extra voters registered since the last election.

[nelson]

D internal, but by a quality pollster.

[thinwhiteduke]

TXsen:
Cornyn (R-inc) 50%
Hegar (D) 40%

UMassLowell UML_CPO, LV, 9/18-25

[johng]

Sept 29, 2020 18:25:52 GMT thinwhiteduke said:

TXsen:
Cornyn (R-inc) 50%
Hegar (D) 40%

UMassLowell UML_CPO, LV, 9/18-25

They have presidential numbers too. www.uml.edu/docs/2020-Texas-Sept-Topline_tcm18-330588.pdf

Trump - 49%

Biden - 46%

It's an odd poll to see Cornyn so high as there isn't a single poll out there (that I know of!) that has him above Trump. Clearly Hegar has been a weak candidate though and she will definitely underpoll Biden. Not many polls from them, but they do have a reasonable rating on 538.

[mondialito]

It's obvious why.

[Izzyeviel]

Finally, Texas is out of play.

[nelson]

Oct 2, 2020 23:38:21 GMT Izzyeviel said:

Finally, Texas is out of play.

No, it's because they've decided not to run negative ads while Trump is in hospital and the scheduled ads were attack ads. 

[Izzyeviel]

Oct 2, 2020 23:46:59 GMT nelson said:

Oct 2, 2020 23:38:21 GMT Izzyeviel said:

Finally, Texas is out of play.

No, it's because they've decided not to run negative ads while Trump is in hospital and the scheduled ads were attack ads. 

Well they said on that account its all ads in Texas, not the negative ones - if they were pulling the negative ads they'd just replace them with positive ones.

[nelson]

Oct 2, 2020 23:51:37 GMT Izzyeviel said:

Oct 2, 2020 23:46:59 GMT nelson said:

No, it's because they've decided not to run negative ads while Trump is in hospital and the scheduled ads were attack ads. 

Well they said on that account its all ads in Texas, not the negative ones - if they were pulling the negative ads they'd just replace them with positive ones.

All the scheduled ads were apparently attack ads. They may not have thought replacing them 1:1 with different types of ads was worth the money. 

Cancelling ads happens frequently and they're often replaced by different ad buys, so it's not necessarily strategically important. 

Anyway, GOTV efforts are arguably more important in TX than tv-ads. 

[Izzyeviel]

Oct 2, 2020 23:58:12 GMT nelson said:

Oct 2, 2020 23:51:37 GMT Izzyeviel said:

Well they said on that account its all ads in Texas, not the negative ones - if they were pulling the negative ads they'd just replace them with positive ones.

All the scheduled ads were apparently attack ads. They may not have thought replacing them 1:1 with different types of ads was worth the money. 

Cancelling ads happens frequently and they're often replaced by different ad buys, so it's not necessarily strategically important. 

Anyway, GOTV efforts are arguably more important in TX than tv-ads. 

Are there any other kind nowdays? 

Edit: i can't be arsed to quote the tweet, but the Medium buying peeps on Twitter are no saying that Biden has advertising booked for 13th Oct in Texas, so maybe you were right nelson

[nelson]

Looking forward to the first post-Covid poll from a serious pollster.

[conservativeestimate]

[CatholicLeft]

Oct 7, 2020 17:01:25 GMT conservativeestimate said:

I will say it again - the USA is not a properly functioning democracy.

[johng]

Oct 7, 2020 17:11:16 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Oct 7, 2020 17:01:25 GMT conservativeestimate said:

I will say it again - the USA is not a properly functioning democracy.

A non-partisan and apolitical judicial system is an essential part of any democracy. It's one thing the US lacks. Justices on the Texas Supreme Court are all appointed/ elected and all are Republicans.

It is clearly relatively close here this time around. Actions like this probably push it to being Lean R though.

Two polls out so far today on Texas. Civiqs has 48-48 and EMC Research (D partisan poll) 49-49. I'm interested to see a more reputable pollster mind.