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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Apr 18, 2020 11:17:25 GMT
9 electoral college votes
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Aug 4, 2020 12:57:30 GMT
SOUTH CAROLINA :
Trump 49% (+5)
Biden 44%
Senate:
Graham (R-inc) 44%
Harrison (D) 43%
@morningconsult 7/24-8/2
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jamie
Forum Regular
Posts: 4,969 
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Post by jamie on Aug 4, 2020 14:01:03 GMT
South Carolina, more than most states, is the sort of place where Democrats can quite easily poll within the MOE in the low to mid 40s, but find it near impossible to actually win once the overwhelmingly Republican undecideds actually have to make a decision on who to vote for.
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Post by conservativeestimate on Aug 14, 2020 18:25:44 GMT
Good ad
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 16, 2020 10:54:32 GMT
South Carolina, more than most states, is the sort of place where Democrats can quite easily poll within the MOE in the low to mid 40s, but find it near impossible to actually win once the overwhelmingly Republican undecideds actually have to make a decision on who to vote for. Same with Mississippi. Nearly 40% of the population in both states are black but the Democrats traditionally poll very poorly with the other 60%. In both states the Democrats have a floor of about 40% but a ceiling of typically under 50%. |
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Rural Radical
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Post by Rural Radical on Aug 17, 2020 21:33:16 GMT
South Carolina, more than most states, is the sort of place where Democrats can quite easily poll within the MOE in the low to mid 40s, but find it near impossible to actually win once the overwhelmingly Republican undecideds actually have to make a decision on who to vote for. Same with Mississippi. Nearly 40% of the population in both states are black but the Democrats traditionally poll very poorly with the other 60%. In both states the Democrats have a floor of about 40% but a ceiling of typically under 50%. I would imagine it won’t be like that forever. I can see North Carolina going to Biden in November, with Georgia being close but sticking with Trump |
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 17, 2020 21:39:55 GMT
Same with Mississippi. Nearly 40% of the population in both states are black but the Democrats traditionally poll very poorly with the other 60%. In both states the Democrats have a floor of about 40% but a ceiling of typically under 50%. I can see North Carolina going to Biden in November, with Georgia being close but sticking with Trump You're comparing apples to oranges: states with lots of black voters don't only change in one way (indeed, ADOS is declining as a proportion of the population nationwide; it's the growth of other non-white demographics, primarily Latinos and mixed race people, which are leading to greater diversity). With GA, most of the population growth really is in a subset of AA areas (specifically, urban ones), but the black population is declining in SC and (when considering the voting population) essentially static as a proportion of the state in MS (IIRC it's within 1-2% of where it was 20 years ago). One of the most significant drivers of population growth in NC is migration to the state, most of which comes from midwestern snowbirds who (due to age) lean strongly Republican. Democrats tend to do better with rural white voters in NC than other southern states, but just doing better with the people who used to vote for them isn't going to be enough considering the influx of Republicans (this is why it is probably going to trend Republican in November, although I'll still bet Biden takes the state). If recent migration patterns and internal population growth continue in NC, we'll get the closest thing to a real-life simulation of what would happen if the Florida Democratic Party was remotely competent. |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,525
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Post by Rural Radical on Aug 17, 2020 22:05:00 GMT
I would imagine it won’t be like that forever. I can see North Carolina going to Biden in November, with Georgia being close but sticking with Trump You're comparing apples to oranges: states with lots of black voters don't only change in one way (indeed, ADOS is declining as a proportion of the population nationwide; it's the growth of other non-white demographics, primarily Latinos and mixed race people, which are leading to greater diversity). With GA, most of the population growth really is in a subset of AA areas (specifically, urban ones), but the black population is declining in SC and (when considering the voting population) essentially static as a proportion of the state in MS (IIRC it's within 1-2% of where it was 20 years ago). One of the most significant drivers of population growth in NC is migration to the state, most of which comes from midwestern snowbirds who (due to age) lean strongly Republican. Democrats tend to do better with rural white voters in NC than other southern states, but just doing better with the people who used to vote for them isn't going to be enough considering the influx of Republicans (this is why it is probably going to trend Republican in November, although I'll still bet Biden takes the state). If recent migration patterns and internal population growth continue in NC, we'll get the closest thing to a real-life simulation of what would happen if the Florida Democratic Party was remotely competent. I wasn’t referring to solely black voters in South Carolina |
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Post by railwaystand on Sept 15, 2020 12:05:14 GMT
Purely an observational post rather than any details however, 4 years ago I lived in the upstate of SC, the election passed and nobody noticed, barely a commercial on TV, I moved to TX for 2 years at the time of Beto and saw a fairly close race, roll forward to this year and I have moved back to Charleston in the low country here, and its wall to wall commercials, not about Trump, they will still weigh his votes here but, the fight is between Graham and Harrison (to a lesser extent Mace V Cunningham) and given we can judge the reality from the advertising spend and the fact the Lincoln Project have jumped in against Graham with some incredibly tough commercials, I think this State has changed dramatically somehow, there is a roll over from the gentrification of Charlotte and a fair number of Tech rather than manufacturing jobs appearing but, something is afoot with Grahams support. As I say, not a peep about Biden/Trump so its a given there but, it is quite surprising to me to see this level of activity.
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 15, 2020 12:12:59 GMT
Interesting insight. Hope you post more on here about your experiences and observations.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 15, 2020 12:15:09 GMT
Purely an observational post rather than any details however, 4 years ago I lived in the upstate of SC, the election passed and nobody noticed, barely a commercial on TV, I moved to TX for 2 years at the time of Beto and saw a fairly close race, roll forward to this year and I have moved back to Charleston in the low country here, and its wall to wall commercials, not about Trump, they will still weigh his votes here but, the fight is between Graham and Harrison (to a lesser extent Mace V Cunningham) and given we can judge the reality from the advertising spend and the fact the Lincoln Project have jumped in against Graham with some incredibly tough commercials, I think this State has changed dramatically somehow, there is a roll over from the gentrification of Charlotte and a fair number of Tech rather than manufacturing jobs appearing but, something is afoot with Grahams support. As I say, not a peep about Biden/Trump so its a given there but, it is quite surprising to me to see this level of activity. Do you get the impression that many Trump voters aren't prepared to support Graham? He has always been a bit controversial even after pivoting to support of the president and now Tucker Carlson has accused him of disloyalty after alleging he set up Trump's taped interviews with Woodward, but I'm really not confident about whether or not anti-Graham sentiment is particularly strong among SC Republicans. |
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Post by railwaystand on Sept 15, 2020 12:42:01 GMT
This is frankly the first time I have seen this level of slate splitting, they are basically saying "vote for Trump that's fine but, Graham is evil". I have even had old style leaflets, I am waiting excitedly for a bar chart one to share here. I was shocked to find I had a Dem representative given Charleston but, then you dig deeper and find its a lot of transplants, younger people are being moved out of the NE in droves if they are Tech as companies can save 30% by moving to Charlotte, I know that from experience. If you want a sight into the possible future of UK politics look up the Lincoln Project commercial about parasites, they show it at dinner time, deliberately. I will happily keep updates and answer any questions "from the ground" if anyone is interested.
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Post by railwaystand on Sept 16, 2020 18:27:08 GMT
Quinnipiac Poll on the lunchtime news: Lindsay Graham 48% - Jaime Harrison 48%, not sure of the pollsters score or MOE but, it would explain the ramping up of Grahams rhetoric overnight, his latest commercial claims he personally rebuilt the US armed Forces. I honestly cant see this changing hands but, something is rotten in the Graham camp.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 16, 2020 20:35:04 GMT
Quinnipiac Poll on the lunchtime news: Lindsay Graham 48% - Jaime Harrison 48%, not sure of the pollsters score or MOE but, it would explain the ramping up of Grahams rhetoric overnight, his latest commercial claims he personally rebuilt the US armed Forces. I honestly cant see this changing hands but, something is rotten in the Graham camp. It's B+ according to 538 and the MoE is 3.2%. The full results can be found here.Normally, I'd strongly favour Graham in a tied poll given that Trump leads Biden 51%-45%, but being tied at such a high percentage this close to election day means that undecided voters skewing towards Trump isn't going to be that much of an advantage for him if these results are accurate. I'm moving the race from likely to lean R for the time being. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 16, 2020 20:41:07 GMT
Quinnipiac Poll on the lunchtime news: Lindsay Graham 48% - Jaime Harrison 48%, not sure of the pollsters score or MOE but, it would explain the ramping up of Grahams rhetoric overnight, his latest commercial claims he personally rebuilt the US armed Forces. I honestly cant see this changing hands but, something is rotten in the Graham camp. It's B+ according to 538 and the MoE is 3.2%. The full results can be found here.Normally, I'd strongly favour Graham in a tied poll given that Trump leads Biden 51%-45%, but being tied at such a high percentage this close to election day means that undecided voters skewing towards Trump isn't going to be that much of an advantage for him if these results are accurate. I'm moving the race from likely to lean R for the time being. I agree; Quinnipiac can be all over the shop, and either very good or WTF is that? I think a tie within the MoE is probably reasonable, and your Lean R justified. |
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Post by railwaystand on Sept 16, 2020 20:59:03 GMT
My thing is, this is South Carolina, the Belt Buckle on the Bible Belt, home of the horrific and openly racist Bob Jones University and the repulsive Strom Thurmans old beat, it shouldn't be close, even with the Trump factor, up or down. Lindsay Graham is a very senior player in this whole game. He made a big play of releasing his tax returns this week and literally shouted on his opponent to do it too (he did after a few days, making it an utterly pointless play) I bet that went over well at 1600 Pennsylvania.
I can't get a feel for this one to be honest, I lived in CO when it flipped over many years but, this is over 2 years. Only thing I can think of is, he hasn't campaigned in a close race, ever, and he has surrounded himself with the "good Ol Boys" of the State GOP who haven't had to do a thing in decades down here, they somehow remind me of the Scottish Labour Party of the 90's, complacent and lazy.
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 16, 2020 21:09:47 GMT
My thing is, this is South Carolina, the Belt Buckle on the Bible Belt, home of the horrific and openly racist Bob Jones University and the repulsive Strom Thurmans old beat, it shouldn't be close, even with the Trump factor, up or down. Lindsay Graham is a very senior player in this whole game. He made a big play of releasing his tax returns this week and literally shouted on his opponent to do it too (he did after a few days, making it an utterly pointless play) I bet that went over well at 1600 Pennsylvania. I can't get a feel for this one to be honest, I lived in CO when it flipped over many years but, this is over 2 years. Only thing I can think of is, he hasn't campaigned in a close race, ever, and he has surrounded himself with the "good Ol Boys" of the State GOP who haven't had to do a thing in decades down here, they somehow remind me of the Scottish Labour Party of the 90's, complacent and lazy. I really think his biggest problem has having spent all his career portraying himself as a right-of-centre pragmatist, willing to work across the aisle almost as John McCain’s wingman, and pretty much admitting he voted McCain as a write-in four years ago, he’s gone full-on Trumpian since McCain’s passing, and it does look a bit opportunistic to put it mildly. I suspect he’s always picked up a chunky crossover vote that he’s now lost, which makes the race a lot closer. But, this being the Palmetto State, he’s more than likely to eke out a victory. |
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jamie
Forum Regular
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Post by jamie on Sept 16, 2020 23:04:37 GMT
Interestingly, Graham’s favourability is barely underwater in the poll while Harrison is comfortably in positive territory (though with more undecideds). Suggests Graham is not as unpopular as many assume and that Republicans still have an opportunity to salvage this seat by going heavily negative on Harrison.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 16, 2020 23:23:23 GMT
It's B+ according to 538 and the MoE is 3.2%. The full results can be found here.Normally, I'd strongly favour Graham in a tied poll given that Trump leads Biden 51%-45%, but being tied at such a high percentage this close to election day means that undecided voters skewing towards Trump isn't going to be that much of an advantage for him if these results are accurate. I'm moving the race from likely to lean R for the time being. I agree; Quinnipiac can be all over the shop, and either very good or WTF is that? I think a tie within the MoE is probably reasonable, and your Lean R justified. They used to be pretty good but they were well out in 2016 and 2018 and so I am very sceptical over their numbers especially as their Maine polls released today look to be implausible at best. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 16, 2020 23:37:52 GMT
I agree; Quinnipiac can be all over the shop, and either very good or WTF is that? I think a tie within the MoE is probably reasonable, and your Lean R justified. They used to be pretty good but they were well out in 2016 and 2018 and so I am very sceptical over their numbers especially as their Maine polls released today look to be implausible at best. There was something ages ago about the fact that they used their students to conduct the interviews without academic supervision and there were allegations of leading respondents to suit the student’s own preferences. |
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