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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 31, 2020 7:17:10 GMT
Add to this the furore over ballots not being counted if they aren't in the assigned envelope and the PA count could be a long one. There are a million unreturned mail-in ballots.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 31, 2020 10:03:42 GMT
A large number counties (including the big cities and suburban Philadelphia) have announced they will start counting postal ballots from 7am on election day and not stop until they are finished. Many rural counties are not going to start counting postal ballots at all until the 4th.
That will help Biden somewhat. There'll probably be an initial blue surge when the first numbers are released and then increasingly good numbers for Trump overnight, almost certainly with him taking the lead, with movement back to Biden over the next week (hopefully not weekS!). The Pennsylvania state supreme court is 5-2 to the Democrats so it may come down to the US Supreme Court.
On the number of mail ballots returned, some counties have been good at reporting and some less so. The latest figures show there are less than 700,000 left to be returned/ processed. 80% of Dems who requested a mail ballot have returned it comparing to 66% of Republicans and 67% of non-party voters.
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johng
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Post by johng on Oct 31, 2020 14:17:28 GMT
Interesting tweet from Nate Cohn. He reckons that polls in PA are tightening in a way not seen elsewhere in the rust belt. Biden supporters on Twitter are getting extremely edgy about this being 2016 all over again.
The problem I have with that though is that I just can't see it in the polls myself. Any movement is slight and within the MOE of all but one poll. Some polls even show a slight movement to Biden.
I checked all of the polls from this week on 538 where the pollster also polled earlier in October. They have the leads as:
Muhlenberg College (538 A+) - Biden +7 to Biden +5 (B-2)
PPP (538 B) - Biden +5 to Biden +7 (B+2)
Trafalgar (538 C-) - Biden +1 to Trump +1 (B-2)
Harris (538 C) - Biden +5 to Biden +5 (-)
Quinnipiac (538 B+) - Biden +8 to Biden +7 (B-1)
RMG (538 B/C) - Biden +6 to Biden +6 (-)
Civiqs (538 B/C) - Biden +7 to Biden +7 (-)
Ipsos (538 B-) - Biden +4 to Biden +7 (B+3)
Yougov (538 B) - Biden +7 to Biden +8 (B+1)
InsiderAdvantage (538 B-) - Biden +3 to Trump +3 (B-6)
Outside of that InsiderAdvantage big swing, can anyone see what I am missing.
We have two high quality polls coming for PA in the next few days from NYT/Siena and Monmouth (both 538 A+) and it will be interesting to see what they say.
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 31, 2020 14:45:25 GMT
Interesting tweet from Nate Cohn. He reckons that polls in PA are tightening in a way not seen elsewhere in the rust belt. Biden supporters on Twitter are getting extremely edgy about this being 2016 all over again. The problem I have with that though is that I just can't see it in the polls myself. Any movement is slight and within the MOE of all but one poll. Some polls even show a slight movement to Biden. I checked all of the polls from this week on 538 where the pollster also polled earlier in October. They have the leads as: Muhlenberg College (538 A+) - Biden +7 to Biden +5 (B-2) PPP (538 B) - Biden +5 to Biden +7 (B+2) Trafalgar (538 C-) - Biden +1 to Trump +1 (B-2) Harris (538 C) - Biden +5 to Biden +5 (-) Quinnipiac (538 B+) - Biden +8 to Biden +7 (B-1) RMG (538 B/C) - Biden +6 to Biden +6 (-) Civiqs (538 B/C) - Biden +7 to Biden +7 (-) Ipsos (538 B-) - Biden +4 to Biden +7 (B+3) Yougov (538 B) - Biden +7 to Biden +8 (B+1) InsiderAdvantage (538 B-) - Biden +3 to Trump +3 (B-6) Outside of that InsiderAdvantage big swing, can anyone see what I am missing. We have two high quality polls coming for PA in the next few days from NYT/Siena and Monmouth (both 538 A+) and it will be interesting to see what they say. It may be the actual lack of movement compared to Wisconsin and Michigan (and New Hampshire which Cohn includes in that group but is underpolled) where Biden has extended his lead slightly. In his more detailed roundup on the NYT website last night he admitted he was likely being over sensitive because of 2016, and noted the medium quality of the pollsters he was working from. Of course he may also be dropping a hint that he knows the direction of travel in the NYT/Siena poll that’s in the field. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 31, 2020 15:43:50 GMT
Muhlenberg College (538 A+) has Biden +5 a drop of 2% from their last poll.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Oct 31, 2020 17:34:46 GMT
Muhlenberg College (538 A+) has Biden +5 a drop of 2% from their last poll. That drop is giving the DEMS on my tl kittens. More entertainingly there is a 12% gap between those who say Trumpkins shouldn't be president and those who say he should... Biden is camping (like Trump) in the state on Monday. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 31, 2020 21:00:20 GMT
Muhlenberg College (538 A+) has Biden +5 a drop of 2% from their last poll. That drop is giving the DEMS on my tl kittens. More entertainingly there is a 12% gap between those who say Trumpkins shouldn't be president and those who say he should... Biden is camping (like Trump) in the state on Monday. I think Pennsylvania is going to give everyone nightmares because some counties aren’t counting mail ballots for days, however if Biden takes Michigan and Wisconsin, and can eke out Florida or North Carolina, both usually speedy counters, then the Keystone State becomes superfluous. |
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David
Scottish Conservative
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Post by David on Nov 1, 2020 0:56:49 GMT
Though, not winning the state he was born in will certainly dent his pride.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 1, 2020 1:51:45 GMT
Though, not winning the state he was born in will certainly dent his pride. If he wins the presidency, I suspect he will feel proud enough. |
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AJS
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Post by AJS on Nov 1, 2020 22:47:39 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 1, 2020 23:02:36 GMT
We have two high quality polls coming for PA in the next few days from NYT/Siena and Monmouth (both 538 A+) and it will be interesting to see what they say. NYT/Siena had Biden + 6 so we are just waiting for Monmouth who will publish their results tomorrow afternoon. For me Monmouth are the best pollster out of all the companies who poll across the country so if they have Biden + 5 or better, combined with the result from Siena (a solid pollster although not A+ in my view) and Muhlenberg (a very good PA specific pollster) I will be very confident that Biden has got this. |
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Post by mrhell on Nov 2, 2020 0:19:10 GMT
Emerson have Biden 50 vs Trump 46.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 2, 2020 0:22:22 GMT
Emerson have Biden 50 vs Trump 46. 52-47 with leaners. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Nov 2, 2020 0:41:33 GMT
We have two high quality polls coming for PA in the next few days from NYT/Siena and Monmouth (both 538 A+) and it will be interesting to see what they say. NYT/Siena had Biden + 6 so we are just waiting for Monmouth who will publish their results tomorrow afternoon. For me Monmouth are the best pollster out of all the companies who poll across the country so if they have Biden + 5 or better, combined with the result from Siena (a solid pollster although not A+ in my view) and Muhlenberg (a very good PA specific pollster) I will be very confident that Biden has got this. Monmouth have a very solid methodology. The one thing about them is their small (500 LV) samples though.
Given the methodological changes since 2016, I think the numbers below are probably enough to say that Biden likely has it.
Plenty of polls today in PA. NYT/Siena (538 A+) - Biden +6. ABC/WaPo (538 A+) - Biden +7 (Their recent state polls have been weird though. They are all over the place. Though any pollster can have an outlier and maybe they should be commended for publishing that WI one). Emerson (538 A-) - Biden +5 Ipsos (538 B-) - Biden +6 InsiderAdvantage (538 B-) - Trump +1 The biggest difference with 2016 is the considerably reduced numbers of undecided voters and Biden's better favourability than Clinton.
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Post by conservativeestimate on Nov 2, 2020 10:53:52 GMT
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Nov 2, 2020 11:04:58 GMT
This is looking very likely for Biden now. On top of yesterday's polls (NYT/Siena Biden +6. ABC/WaPo Biden +7. Ipsos Biden +6), we have Monmouth's:
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David
Scottish Conservative
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Post by David on Nov 2, 2020 15:35:37 GMT
This is the AG of PA. Saying Trump can't win his state is not only false, categorically so, but dangerous.
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 2, 2020 16:00:22 GMT
This is the AG of PA. Saying Trump can't win his state is not only false, categorically so, but dangerous. Of course it isn’t; as long as you make the position a political one then you can’t complain when the occupant cheerleads for his/her Party. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 2, 2020 18:26:20 GMT
President (Pennsylvania)
Biden (D) 50%
Trump (R) 46%
10/29-11/1 by Marist College
1020 RV
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AJS
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Post by AJS on Nov 2, 2020 19:20:54 GMT
If Trump loses Pennsylvania the only realistic way I can see for him to win the election overall is to hold Wisconsin and gain Nevada.
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