johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630 
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Post by johng on Oct 21, 2020 11:35:33 GMT
And, as if on cue, a higher quality pollster releases a poll on PA.
Suffolk (538 A) conducted a poll of LV for USA Today from 15-19/10. They haven't conducted one on PA this year so nothing to compare it to. Biden +7 is a pretty reasonable for Biden,
President
Biden - 49%
Trump - 42%
On favourabilities Biden is +5 and Trump -10. This isn't 2016.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
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Post by johng on Oct 21, 2020 23:42:51 GMT
On cue was a bit of an understatement. Today, not only have we had Suffolk's (538 A) Biden +5 poll, but also quite a few other decent pollster.
Most are showing a bit of a dip form previous polls (Fox and Quinnipiac), but still decent +5, +10 and +8 margins for Biden.
Fox News (538 A-)
President
Biden - 50%
Trump - 45%
CNN/SRSS (538 B/C)
President
Biden - 53%
Trump - 43%
Quinnipiac (538 B+)
President
Biden - 51%
Trump - 43%
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
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Post by johng on Oct 24, 2020 19:27:20 GMT
Gravis just released a poll of LV. All of the polling was conducted on the 23rd so the day after the debate. It's the only poll released so far that is 100% post-debate and it looks good for Biden.
It's not so much the headline figures that intrigued me...
Biden - 51%
Trump - 44%
(They haven't polled since July so it's not a real comparison, but Biden is +3 and Trump -1)
... but the approval ratings.
Trump - 48/49
Biden - 58/39
You're not misreading it. It's +19 vs -1. That's a hell of a lead. As I said above, this isn't 2016.
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AJS
Top Poster
Posts: 22,677
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Post by AJS on Oct 24, 2020 19:49:43 GMT
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 7,887
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Post by middyman on Oct 24, 2020 20:39:43 GMT
When it comes to this state, Biden scored an own goal by saying he would end use of fossil fuels, inc fracking and coal mining.
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 24, 2020 20:52:05 GMT
Indeed. Trump was quick to pick up on that and specifically highlight Penn (and Texas). Also I have always had a bad feeling about Penn. I have family there and they tell me that everyone they know who voted Trump in 16 will be voting Trump in 20. [nothing more than anecdotal I grant you, but I just feel less sure about this than say Michigan, Wisconsin etc)
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 7,887
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Post by middyman on Oct 24, 2020 20:57:19 GMT
Indeed. Trump was quick to pick up on that and specifically highlight Penn (and Texas). Also I have always had a bad feeling about Penn. I have family there and they tell me that everyone they know who voted Trump in 16 will be voting Trump in 20. [nothing more than anecdotal I grant you, but I just feel less sure about this than say Michigan, Wisconsin etc) There is indeed a fair chance that Trump will prevail here, and in Texas as you say. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 24, 2020 20:58:47 GMT
Nate Silver’s Tweeted it’s merely a couple of very good Biden polls dropping off the average rather than a tightening. |
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CatholicLeft
Co-operative Party
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 2,836
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 24, 2020 22:12:46 GMT
Indeed. Trump was quick to pick up on that and specifically highlight Penn (and Texas). Also I have always had a bad feeling about Penn. I have family there and they tell me that everyone they know who voted Trump in 16 will be voting Trump in 20. [nothing more than anecdotal I grant you, but I just feel less sure about this than say Michigan, Wisconsin etc) There is indeed a fair chance that Trump will prevail here, and in Texas as you say. Of course President Trump is going to prevail in Texas; he was always going to win, but not by so much. (EDIT: Just realised, my Northern understatement might be misunderstood: "but not by so much" means "by fewer votes than expected"). |
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,451
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Post by nelson on Oct 25, 2020 15:11:29 GMT
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 8,404
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 25, 2020 15:28:42 GMT
Like most on land natural resources natural resources extraction, it's pretty unpopular, especially on your doorstep. The mini-earthquakes associated with it (in perception at least) means it's even more problematic... |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 26, 2020 13:48:07 GMT
Posting mostly for the map.
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David
Scottish Conservative
Posts: 7,880
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Post by David on Oct 26, 2020 16:29:15 GMT
Sure, but what do people in Erie, Luzerne and Northampton counties think? It's their opinion that really matters. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 26, 2020 18:17:10 GMT
B rated pollster
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CatholicLeft
Co-operative Party
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 2,836
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 26, 2020 18:26:43 GMT
I just don't buy it. Have we any crosstabs? |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
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Post by johng on Oct 26, 2020 19:11:16 GMT
Partisan pollster for 'American Greatness'. Just look at their website! amgreatness.com/. 400 respondents. Does not weight by education. Yougov poll out today has Biden +8 (though it was conducted pre-debate). Pollster claims fracking is causing the Trump-bump, but multiple polls have shown it's unpopular in PA and those involved in oil were probably voting Trump anyway.
This is what they are releasing which is hardly detailed.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
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Post by johng on Oct 27, 2020 11:33:13 GMT
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Post by heslingtonian on Oct 28, 2020 7:06:21 GMT
Looks like it will be closer than Michigan or Wisconsin but ultimately not that close. Biden 53%, Trump 45%
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 28, 2020 11:47:23 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 29, 2020 22:09:07 GMT
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