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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 21, 2020 10:35:57 GMT
Trafalgar: Biden - 47% Trump - 45% When even Trafalgar’s unskewing of their own polls can’t find you ahead... It still shows a small swing to Trump from their last June/July poll. It's slipping out of Republican reach, but is still just about lean D - in fact, I'd say it's the tipping point keeping the presidential race from falling into the likely D category (I currently have 258 electoral votes as Likely or Safe D and think AZ is marginally more winnable for Democrats than PA, but in the event of a tied electoral college, I'd heavily favour Trump's reelection bid). |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Sept 28, 2020 22:41:14 GMT
NYT/ Siena College Poll Biden - 49% Trump - 40% How polaised in America though!? Jeez. Do you think Joe Biden has the mental sharpness to be an effective president? Yes from Dems - 90%. Yes from Republicans - 12%. Do you think Donald Trump has the mental sharpness to be an effective president? Yes from Dems - 16%. Yes from Republicans - 88%. int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/pa-0920-crosstabs/0d7e4a610ceeb14b/full.pdfABC/ WaPo has a poll out later tonight as well. Their last few polls were pretty poor for Biden so it will be interesting to see what they show. |
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AJS
Top Poster
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Post by AJS on Sept 28, 2020 22:42:14 GMT
NYT/ Siena College Poll Biden - 49% Trump - 40% How polaised in America though!? Jeez. Do you think Joe Biden has the mental sharpness to be an effective president? Yes from Dems - 90%. Yes from Republicans - 12%. Do you think Donald Trump has the mental sharpness to be an effective president? Yes from Dems - 16%. Yes from Republicans - 88%. int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/pa-0920-crosstabs/0d7e4a610ceeb14b/full.pdfABC/ WaPo has a poll out later tonight as well. Their last few polls were pretty poor for Biden so it will be interesting to see what they show. Thanks for the figures. Is the first debate tonight? I hadn't realised if so. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 28, 2020 22:43:28 GMT
NYT/ Siena College Poll Biden - 49% Trump - 40% How polaised in America though!? Jeez. Do you think Joe Biden has the mental sharpness to be an effective president? Yes from Dems - 90%. Yes from Republicans - 12%. Do you think Donald Trump has the mental sharpness to be an effective president? Yes from Dems - 16%. Yes from Republicans - 88%. int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/pa-0920-crosstabs/0d7e4a610ceeb14b/full.pdfABC/ WaPo has a poll out later tonight as well. Their last few polls were pretty poor for Biden so it will be interesting to see what they show. Thanks for the figures. Is the first debate tonight? I hadn't realised if so. No, tomorrow (Tuesday) |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Sept 29, 2020 7:16:59 GMT
NYT/ Siena College Poll Biden - 49% Trump - 40% ABC/ WaPo has a poll out later tonight as well. Their last few polls were pretty poor for Biden so it will be interesting to see what they show. And here are those ABC/WaPo numbers. Biden - 54%
Trump - 45%
They have clearly pushed wavering/ undecided voters hard on their choice. Much more so than NYT/Siena College did yesterday. Both polls come out with a 9 point advantage with likely voters though.
This should ease some Biden supporters fears after the poor polls ABC/WaPo released on Florida and Arizona on the 20th.
It really seems like, barring some major event, PA is looking more and more comfortable for Biden. In the last month, for reputable pollsters (538 B and above), Biden's margin with LVs has been +9, +9, +5, +7, +4, +9, +8 and +3. Bar Yougov (+4) and Monmouth (+3), all of them are decent above MOE margins. To see a poll with Trump ahead, we have to go all the way back to July in a GOP paid-for Spry poll.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 29, 2020 9:16:32 GMT
It really seems like, barring some major event, PA is looking more and more comfortable for Biden. In the last month, for reputable pollsters (538 B and above), Biden's margin with LVs has been +9, +9, +5, +7, +4, +9, +8 and +3. Bar Yougov (+4) and Monmouth (+3), all of them are decent above MOE margins. To see a poll with Trump ahead, we have to go all the way back to July in a GOP paid-for Spry poll.
Add in that Biden has consistently polled well in MI, MN and WI and that's enough for him to win. |
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Bert
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Post by Bert on Sept 29, 2020 12:45:06 GMT
It really seems like, barring some major event, PA is looking more and more comfortable for Biden. In the last month, for reputable pollsters (538 B and above), Biden's margin with LVs has been +9, +9, +5, +7, +4, +9, +8 and +3. Bar Yougov (+4) and Monmouth (+3), all of them are decent above MOE margins. To see a poll with Trump ahead, we have to go all the way back to July in a GOP paid-for Spry poll.
Add in that Biden has consistently polled well in MI, MN and WI and that's enough for him to win. enough to win the popular vote & also the EC, but will it be enough to win the presidency ....   |
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johng
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Post by johng on Sept 29, 2020 15:33:15 GMT
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 29, 2020 16:34:14 GMT
Except Trump won white voters without a college degree by more than 30 points four years ago, and, with very few undecideds and over 90% saying they are committed to their candidate come what may, unless he’s picking up substantial numbers from another subset, of which there’s no evidence, that drop off is far more than his victory margin in 2016. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 3, 2020 20:02:57 GMT
The latest New York Times/Siena College poll has Biden ahead 49-42, which is a small improvement for Trump, who trailed by 9% in the previous NYT/Siena poll.
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 4, 2020 15:15:44 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 4, 2020 15:40:53 GMT
Another possible "red mirage" state. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 4, 2020 19:02:30 GMT
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 4, 2020 19:32:14 GMT
You'll probably get some clues early; turnout around Philadelphia and the suburban counties, and, to a lesser extent Pittsburgh and neighbouring counties; Hillary had appalling turnout in Philly, which probably cost her the State, if Biden's closer to Obama's 2012 numbers he's looking good. There might also be some slippage on the Republican side from the Scranton area counties, which are small and pretty quick to report, if Biden's eating into Trump's 2012 numbers he's well positioned. Anyone that can access the Washington Post, the written version of this www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/breaking-down-the-seven-political-states-of-pennsylvania/vi-BB19bgH5 is well worth a read. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 4, 2020 20:51:16 GMT
Hillary had appalling turnout in Philly, which probably cost her the State, if Biden's closer to Obama's 2012 numbers he's looking good. More votes were cast in Philadelphia in 2016 than 2012. I think you're thinking of Milwaukee, where turnout really was absolutely ghastly. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 4, 2020 21:08:38 GMT
Hillary had appalling turnout in Philly, which probably cost her the State, if Biden's closer to Obama's 2012 numbers he's looking good. More votes were cast in Philadelphia in 2016 than 2012. I think you're thinking of Milwaukee, where turnout really was absolutely ghastly. Without going back and checking, which I'll try and do later, it was maybe the surrounding counties that turnout dropped; it's in that Washington Post "States of Pennsylvania" written piece (haven't watched the video I linked).=, but I'm sure they talked about a decline in turnout that started to come back in 2018. |
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johng
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Post by johng on Oct 6, 2020 15:18:37 GMT
What numbers! I've been shocked a few times over the last days by Biden polling figures. But if these numbers are true, it's not just PA - MI/ WI/ MN/ OH are all gone for Trump.
In the last month, 538 pollsters B and above have had: +12, +7, +7, +9, +7, +9, +9, +5, +11, +7, +4, +9. +8.
There comes a point when you have to think that this is unwinnable for Trump.
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Oct 6, 2020 15:25:31 GMT
What numbers! I've been shocked a few times over the last days by Biden polling figures. But if these numbers are true, MI, WI, MN, IA, OH are all gone for Trump. How quickly could PA be called in this scenario with more mail-in ballots? I remember when it was called for Obama as soon as polls closed in 2008 despite predictions that it would be close. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 6, 2020 15:34:19 GMT
What numbers! I've been shocked a few times over the last days by Biden polling figures. But if these numbers are true, MI, WI, MN, IA, OH are all gone for Trump. How quickly could PA be called in this scenario with more mail-in ballots? I remember when it was called for Obama as soon as polls closed in 2008 despite predictions that it would be close. I suspect it’ll depend on the lawsuit about when absentee ballots can be counted; if it’s up to the Friday after Election Day as Democrats want them the networks may err on the side of caution to avoid accusations of bias from the GOP. |
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 6, 2020 16:30:55 GMT
What interests me is hat the undecideds are now so low - Trump can't make it even by picking all the remaining undecideds up, he has to swing quite a few voters from Biden or persuade lots of Biden supporters not to turn out before he has any chance at all.
And he doesn't seem to be aiming for swing voters...
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