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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Apr 18, 2020 11:16:08 GMT
20 electoral college votes
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Post by conservativeestimate on Jul 6, 2020 20:40:43 GMT
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630 
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Post by johng on Jul 6, 2020 23:47:13 GMT
Very few polls released from Pennsylvania so far.
Only one highly reputable one that's over two weeks old now. Not a single one shows Trump ahead though.
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Post by MacShimidh on Jul 15, 2020 16:34:12 GMT
Up until now there has been a dearth of polling in Pennsylvania, but Monmouth have today released a poll showing Biden leading by 13 points among registered voters. Their write up is very detailed and definitely worth a read. It also gives figures taking into account turnout levels in the state. |
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Post by adlai52 on Jul 15, 2020 16:41:21 GMT
Up until now there has been a dearth of polling in Pennsylvania, but Monmouth have today released a poll showing Biden leading by 13 points among registered voters. Their write up is very detailed and definitely worth a read. It also gives figures taking into account turnout levels in the state. Harry Enten - among others - with some useful context for how this lines up with 2016: Being above 50% is one of the critical differences this time around and it's not limited to PA, Biden is edging over 50% in a lot of the Midwestern swing states. In 2016 Clinton had to contend with third parties polling more strongly than this time around, but whats striking is how far short of 50% she was in both national and swing state polling. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Jul 24, 2020 14:37:24 GMT
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
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Post by johng on Aug 18, 2020 21:52:08 GMT
Heritage Action released a ridiculous poll today with multiple questions on Biden's, and I'll quote, 'diminished mental capacity' today.
Even they have managed to put Biden above 50% and +4% on Trump.
No serious pollster has had this within the MOE.
I think it's fair to say that Pennsylvania is moving to safe Biden.
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 18, 2020 22:07:18 GMT
Heritage Action released a ridiculous poll today with multiple questions on Biden's, and I'll quote, 'diminished mental capacity' today. Even they have managed to put Biden above 50% and +4% on Trump. No serious pollster has had this within the MOE. I think it's fair to say that Pennsylvania is moving to safe Biden. This is a junky internal and the general rule of thumb with those (high-quality exceptions like PPP (D) and Cygnal (R) exist) is to assume they're usually off by about 5% or so. Biden +9% isn't quite safe at this stage in the race so I wouldn't say the state is safe considering other nonpartisan polls suggesting a lower margin than that, but it's still a very strong lean D. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Aug 20, 2020 17:28:15 GMT
Pennsylvania Poll:
Biden 49% (+4)
Trump 45%
Muhlenberg College
A+ rated by 538.
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AJS
Top Poster
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Member is Online
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Post by AJS on Aug 21, 2020 0:38:42 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Aug 21, 2020 6:13:09 GMT
Trump could have won in 2016 without Pennsylvania. It's also a state which voted to the right of the country last time for the first time since 1948. However, I think it's crucial this time if Biden wins Arizona. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Aug 26, 2020 8:39:52 GMT
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 2, 2020 15:45:23 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 2, 2020 15:46:57 GMT
Either a long-term tightening of the race or a convention bounce seems to have happened (my bet is that it's the latter), but these sample size 400 Monmouth polls aren't the most reliable barometers. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 2, 2020 15:54:39 GMT
Either a long-term tightening of the race or a convention bounce seems to have happened (my bet is that it's the latter), but these sample size 400 Monmouth polls aren't the most reliable barometers. I’ve just mentioned that in the main thread; Monmouth tend to get the end result pretty spot on, but their sample sizes are small so their numbers are prone to pretty significant fluctuations. |
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jamie
Forum Regular
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Post by jamie on Sept 2, 2020 16:42:14 GMT
Morning Consult also had Pennsylvania closer than similar states (and with a much more credible sample size). Would be surprising if Pennsylvania was noticeably more Trumpy than Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, but perhaps not an impossibility?
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jamie
Forum Regular
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Post by jamie on Sept 9, 2020 11:15:44 GMT
Marist have found Biden ahead by 9%. Interestingly, he’s only 8% ahead among registered voters so the likely voter screen seems to be helping him here. Regardless, a much better result here than other pollsters have found for Biden so Pennsylvania’s potential drift right remains unclear.
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Post by MacShimidh on Sept 17, 2020 19:48:23 GMT
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European Lefty
Labour
I am autistic, so If I'm rude or inappropriate it's probably by accident. If not, you'll know it!
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Post by European Lefty on Sept 17, 2020 20:30:58 GMT
I'm not sure it'll have much impact. There's more desire to simply beat Trump by any means necessary, less appetite for a protest vote and Jill Stein was reasonably well known at least within America's anti-establishment left, which this candidate isn't |
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jamie
Forum Regular
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Post by jamie on Sept 21, 2020 10:29:57 GMT
Trafalgar:
Biden - 47%
Trump - 45%
When even Trafalgar’s unskewing of their own polls can’t find you ahead...
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