What used to be a traditionally republican state (voting Republican at every election from 1948 to 1984, with the exception of 1964), Oregon is now very much in the Democratic Column at presidential level, with the Democrats winning the electoral college at all 8 elections since 1988, and almost certain to make it 9 in a row.
This level of Democratic dominance in statewide elections is also reflected in other elections. Although Republicans have won senate elections in Oregon since the 1980’s, the last Senate election win was in 2002 and the last truly competitive senate election race was in 2008, when the incumbent from 2002 lost.
In House of Representatives elections, the Democrats are even more dominant, with the Republicans winning only 1 Congressional District in each election out of 5 (the 2nd District) since 1998 (they won 2 in 1996). The Democrats at House of Representatives elections also overperform electorally when you compare the election results to the Cook Partisan Voting Index rating of each of the districts.
Unlike other safe Democratic states such as Massachusetts and Vermont, the Democrats also have a long winning streak at Gubernatorial level, winning every Gubernatorial election since 1986. The margins in these races are not typically large though, the only time since 1986 where the margin has been over 10% was in 1998, thanks to a popular incumbent.
To a certain extent this is reflected in Presidential Elections, where the majorities have been occasionally quite large but never overwhelming in the same way as California or Massachusetts. Whilst most of the state is not trending towards the Democrats, and some smaller areas are Trending the other way, the largest county (Multnomah) has been trending Democrat at breakneck speed over the last 30-40 years. It contains the state capital Portland, which is very much seen as a bastion of ultra-progressive (or ‘woke’) liberalism amongst the political right, ‘Portlandia’ has replaced ‘Massachusetts Liberal’ as their term most used to mock ‘woke’ values. The increasingly large numerical margins Democrats are racking up in this one county alone are keeping this state as solidly Democrat in most statewide elections.
A conservative who has always lived in labour areas.
Post by David Boothroyd on Jul 24, 2020 12:45:15 GMT
If you go back a few decades, you'll find Crook County Oregon cropping up in election analysis because it was a perfect national bellwether county from its first election in 1884 right up to 1992 when it stuck with George H.W. Bush. It's since trended far to the right and voted 70% for Donald Trump in 2016.
Socialism makes war upon a system, not upon a class