nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 7, 2020 21:16:27 GMT
D friendly media are now implying Tillis may have been an even worse husband than Cunningham. Thom Tillis’ Ex-Wife Cites “Cruel and Inhuman Treatment” in Divorce Documents"In Tennessee, where the couple was married, “cruel and inhuman treatment” legally includes domestic violence, adultery, emotional or verbal abuse, and sexual assault. The divorce complaint, filed in August 1979 on Tillis’ birthday, stated that Tillis was “guilty of such cruel and inhuman treatment or conduct towards the plaintiff as renders further cohabitation unsafe and improper.” The divorce filing also noted that Tillis’ ex-wife felt “unsafe and improper” living with Tillis any further because of his actions, which may include any or all of the actions outlined in the law." |
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 12, 2020 20:49:26 GMT
Cunningham +2%, Tillis -1% on their last poll (September 10-13):
It's not a sure thing yet, but it appears that even beyond Trump and among Democratic candidates, sex scandals don't have nearly as much pull as they used to.
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finsobruce
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 12, 2020 21:04:05 GMT
Cunningham +2%, Tillis -1% on their last poll (September 10-13): It's not a sure thing yet, but it appears that even beyond Trump and among Democratic candidates, sex scandals don't have nearly as much pull as they used to. "Flings aint what they used to be". |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 12, 2020 21:42:09 GMT
Cunningham improves with men and young people after his "sex scandal" (kissing scandal?), but drops a bit with women and seniors. Very stereotypical reaction. But it seems to have been a net benefit for him.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 12, 2020 21:46:51 GMT
Cunningham +2%, Tillis -1% on their last poll (September 10-13): It's not a sure thing yet, but it appears that even beyond Trump and among Democratic candidates, sex scandals don't have nearly as much pull as they used to. "Flings aint what they used to be". "You make me feel there are songs to be sung bells to be rung and a wonderful fling to be flung. And even when I'm old and grey..." |
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johng
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Post by johng on Oct 12, 2020 23:11:55 GMT
Hasn't it been the case for a while though that you are supposed to just tough it out/ grin and bear it and eventually any trouble will go away?
The worst possible thing to do would be to grovel/ repeatedly apologise or try to explain what happened.
Monmouth have a poll out tomorrow. Last time they polled, in September, Biden was +2 and the senate race was even. Will be interesting to see if Cunningham makes a big leap in that poll too.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 13, 2020 17:45:35 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 13, 2020 20:17:28 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 16, 2020 10:25:52 GMT
There is some evidence that the Senate race has tightened in the past week. There have been 5 polls in the last few days and while each of them given Cunningham the lead his margins are 5,4,4,2 and 1.
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johng
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Post by johng on Oct 16, 2020 10:54:10 GMT
There is some evidence that the Senate race has tightened in the past week. There have been 5 polls in the last few days and while each of them given Cunningham the lead his margins are 5,4,4,2 and 1. The evidence doesn't show that.
I'm not sure what you are counting as the last few days, but there have been more polls than that. Polled since the 'sexting scandal', we've had:
On the 15th we had Cunningham +6 and +1. On the 13th we had Cunningham +4 and +2. On the 12th we had Cunningham +10, +4, +5* and +6. (*It was +1 with Monmouth's Low Turnout model - but we all know that isn't happening) On the 11th we had Cunningham +10.
The +1 was from Emerson who have, on the whole, not been showing the best numbers for the Dems this election season. Just look at the governor's race. Siena/NYT (538 A+) showed Cooper +14, Monmouth (538 A+) showed him +8 and SurveyUSA (538 A) showed him +13. Emerson showed him +4. That's his worst poll since one from a no-name pollster in July. Of course they could be right, but they are certainly out of line with other reputable pollsters.
If you look back, I am not sure they are terribly out of line to what we were seeing in September either. As an example, from the 10-17th of September, we saw Cunningham +5, +11, +4, +4, +1, +7, +1 and +3.
That doesn't look that dissimilar to me.
This obviously isn't a safe Democratic race. Very few polls show Cunningham at 50% and there's the possibility this scandal has more October surprises. On the whole though, it still seems like it leans Dem.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 16, 2020 11:20:45 GMT
FWIW comparing the last few polls to the same pollsters previous polls, there does seem to be a small amount of tightening. There’s a few qualifications to this (very margin of error movements, long time since last poll etc), but there does seem to be a small swing to Tillis.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 16, 2020 11:41:51 GMT
FWIW comparing the last few polls to the same pollsters previous polls, there does seem to be a small amount of tightening. There’s a few qualifications to this (very margin of error movements, long time since last poll etc), but there does seem to be a small swing to Tillis. In lots of the polls, but not in all. Comparing September to October: Monmouth has gone from Cunningham +2 to +5 SurveyUSA has gone from Cunningham +7 to +10 As you say though, a lot of it is MOE stuff and I think we put far too much attention on 1 or 2 point changes which are statistically meaningless. There are also a high number of undecided voters in senate polls who will probably go straight-ticket on election day benefiting Tillis. On election day, Cooper is going to outpace Biden by some margin. However, Tillis/Trump and Biden/Cunningham will very likely be within a few points of each other. |
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johng
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Post by johng on Oct 20, 2020 10:31:00 GMT
There were a dry few days on polling from NC, but ABC/WaPo have just released one showing a very tight race. Richard Allen Polling was conducted from 12-17/10 and it's of 646 LV. They didn't appear to ask about the governor's race. It's their first poll of NC. President Biden - 49% Trump - 48% Senate Cunningham (D) - 49% Tillis (R) (INC) - 47% The one silver lining for Cunningham is over 70% say the 'scandal' is unimportant to them. The most important thing according to this poll (80%+) was who controlled the senate. I stand by what I said above. The senate/ presidential candidates will be within a point (or maybe 2) of each other come election day.
Edit: To add East Carolina University's poll with quite similar numbers - perhaps a bit better for the Dems. President
Biden - 51% (+1 on 5/10 poll)
Trump - 47% (-)
Senate
Cunningham (D) - 49% (+2)
Tillis (R) (INC) - 47% (-)
Governor Cooper (D) (INC) - 55% (-)
Forest (R) - 43% (+2)
Edit 2: To add an Ipsos poll. We really are being spoiled to have three reputable polls after almost a week of drought. No senate numbers released yet.
President
Biden - 49% (+1 on 12/10 poll)
Trump - 46% (-1)
So three polls today. Biden is +1, +4 and +3. Cunningham is +2 and +2. Cooper is +12.
I'd argue, two weeks before election day, both the presidency and senate races are lightly tilting Democratic whilst the governor's race is safe Democratic.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Oct 20, 2020 10:44:27 GMT
That's about as few undecideds as I've seen in a poll for the Senate race.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 25, 2020 16:23:59 GMT
Yougov poll for CBS. Partly pre and partly post debate. Yougov's numbers are pretty middle of the road for both Trump and Biden.
Definitely a strong tilt still to Biden and Cunningham here.
President
Biden - 51%
Trump - 47%
Senate
Cunningham (D) - 49%
Tillis (R)(INC) - 43%
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 25, 2020 16:33:46 GMT
Tillis continuing to run significantly behind Trump is notable. There are still plenty of undecideds on the Senate race but with Libertarian and Constitution Party candidates on the ballot some leakage of votes to his right looks pretty likely.
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 25, 2020 17:48:39 GMT
Tillis continuing to run significantly behind Trump is notable. There are still plenty of undecideds on the Senate race but with Libertarian and Constitution Party candidates on the ballot some leakage of votes to his right looks pretty likely. Cunningham was never an A-tier candidate and to be underperforming this badly against him post-scandal is an indictment of Tillis’ candidacy. The Republicans have a large bench in NC and should have primaried him. |
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johng
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Post by johng on Oct 25, 2020 18:54:37 GMT
From that Yougov poll above. 48% say they had already voted and that vote splits 61% to 36% to Biden. The poll was conducted from the 20th to the 23rd. Tillis continuing to run significantly behind Trump is notable. There are still plenty of undecideds on the Senate race but with Libertarian and Constitution Party candidates on the ballot some leakage of votes to his right looks pretty likely. There's actually a lot of interesting details in the table.
In this question you'd think Tillis would do far better than Cunningham.
'Regardless of how you feel about their policies, do you like or dislike how the candidates handle themselves personally?' But no. Tillis is -16% whereas Cunningham is -18%. He just hasn't connected with the electorate.
In comparison, Biden is +6 and Trump is -30%.
Wasn't Cunningham Chuck Schumer's choice?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 25, 2020 19:00:09 GMT
Wasn't Cunningham Chuck Schumer's choice? Yeah. The original pick was Jeff Jackson who is viewed as a rising star and wanted to run a grassroots campaign. Schumer told him he would instead have to spend almost all his time fundraising and as a consequence he told Schumer to get lost. Cunningham was originally running for lieutenant governor but was encouraged to switch to the Senate as no one else credible was running and he was happy to follow Schumer’s orders on campaigning, or their lack of. |
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johng
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Post by johng on Oct 27, 2020 20:42:10 GMT
Some pretty tight polls out today. Notable tightening as we come into the final week across reputable pollsters with Trump gaining with every single pollster (though within MOE). Biden can afford to lose this state, but it really is one they need to win to take the senate.
I did think this was looking like a state fairly strongly tilting towards Biden. This makes it look like more toss-up territory.
SurveyUSA
Biden - 48% (-2 on 12/10 poll)
Trump - 48% (+3)
Reuters/ Ipsos
Biden - 49% (- on 19/10 poll)
Trump - 48% (+1)
PPP (D Partisan poll)
Biden - 51% (+1 on 4/10 poll)
Trump - 47% (+1)
Older poll but surveyed over the same period.
Yougov
Biden - 51% (+3 on 26/9 poll)
Trump - 47% (+1)
Cunningham is +6, +1, +3 and not released yet for SurveyUSA.
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