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Post by adlai52 on Oct 3, 2020 11:01:46 GMT
Meanwhile, Cal Cunningham just complicated a race that had been trending his way most of the year... www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article246191610.html...will be heavily overshadowed by Trump and Tillis, also not sure if this is as damaging as it would have been in the past. Eitherway, the state is heavily polled so we should get an answer pretty soon. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 3, 2020 11:11:19 GMT
Meanwhile, Cal Cunningham just complicated a race that had been trending his way most of the year... www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article246191610.html...will be heavily overshadowed by Trump and Tillis, also not sure if this is as damaging as it would have been in the past. Eitherway, the state is heavily polled so we should get an answer pretty soon. With this revelation, I don't see Democrats taking back the Senate this year. Sure they'll likely take Arizona, Colorado and Maine but with the Republicans heavily favoured in Alabama, I can't see a path for the Democrats to win back the Senate. |
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Post by jollyroger93 on Oct 3, 2020 11:33:57 GMT
Meanwhile, Cal Cunningham just complicated a race that had been trending his way most of the year... www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article246191610.html...will be heavily overshadowed by Trump and Tillis, also not sure if this is as damaging as it would have been in the past. Eitherway, the state is heavily polled so we should get an answer pretty soon. With this revelation, I don't see Democrats taking back the Senate this year. Sure they'll likely take Arizona, Colorado and Maine but with the Republicans heavily favoured in Alabama, I can't see a path for the Democrats to win back the Senate. He likes a good shag big deal, doubt this will have much affect. |
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CatholicLeft
Co-operative Party
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 3, 2020 11:38:11 GMT
Meanwhile, Cal Cunningham just complicated a race that had been trending his way most of the year... www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article246191610.html...will be heavily overshadowed by Trump and Tillis, also not sure if this is as damaging as it would have been in the past. Eitherway, the state is heavily polled so we should get an answer pretty soon. With this revelation, I don't see Democrats taking back the Senate this year. Sure they'll likely take Arizona, Colorado and Maine but with the Republicans heavily favoured in Alabama, I can't see a path for the Democrats to win back the Senate. It is possible, but unlikely, to make much difference as the news is all about Covid-19 now. It is very shabby behaviour and makes it a little more difficult for him. |
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Post by adlai52 on Oct 3, 2020 11:42:35 GMT
With this revelation, I don't see Democrats taking back the Senate this year. Sure they'll likely take Arizona, Colorado and Maine but with the Republicans heavily favoured in Alabama, I can't see a path for the Democrats to win back the Senate. He likes a good shag big deal, doubt this will have much affect. He’s very lucky that Trump going into hospital has blotted out pretty much any other story, at least for this wkd. Losing NC would be a blow for Dem chances to take the senate, but they have other promising targets and if Biden’s wins by high single digits he’d be likely to carry some candidates over the line. Something which might happen in NC, especially with Cooper strongly favoured in the Gubernatorial race. That said, I’d want to see some actual polling on this. Compared to what we’ve seen in recent years, it’s a pretty tame story tbh. David Vitter survived a much worse scandal in his senate race a few years back - not a perfect analogy though. |
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Richard Allen
Non-Aligned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 17,078
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 3, 2020 12:17:37 GMT
Meanwhile, Cal Cunningham just complicated a race that had been trending his way most of the year... www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article246191610.html...will be heavily overshadowed by Trump and Tillis, also not sure if this is as damaging as it would have been in the past. Eitherway, the state is heavily polled so we should get an answer pretty soon. With this revelation, I don't see Democrats taking back the Senate this year. Sure they'll likely take Arizona, Colorado and Maine but with the Republicans heavily favoured in Alabama, I can't see a path for the Democrats to win back the Senate. If you can't see a path then I suggest you open your eyes. Aside from this race, there are competitive elections in Iowa, Montana, Georgia, Kansas, South Carolina and Alaska. Sure the GOP are favoured in almost all of them (Iowa is a toss up in my book) but to say there isn't a path to a Democratic controlled Senate is just bloody ridiculous. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 3, 2020 12:21:28 GMT
A very silly thing to do and he's lucky Trump will dominate today's news. Even if he loses NC, the Dems still have a path to a majority in the senate. It's a tricky path even without this scandal though. Excluding NC - AZ, CO, IA, GA, ME, MT, possibly GA (Special) and even SC (if you believe the polls) are all potential pick-ups. Of course Alabama will be a loss.
Edit: richard Allen got there first. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 3, 2020 14:03:18 GMT
With this revelation, I don't see Democrats taking back the Senate this year. Sure they'll likely take Arizona, Colorado and Maine but with the Republicans heavily favoured in Alabama, I can't see a path for the Democrats to win back the Senate. If you can't see a path then I suggest you open your eyes. Aside from this race, there are competitive elections in Iowa, Montana, Georgia, Kansas, South Carolina and Alaska. Sure the GOP are favoured in almost all of them (Iowa is a toss up in my book) but to say there isn't a path to a Democratic controlled Senate is just bloody ridiculous. Perhaps I should have said Democratic majority without the need for the VP to cast the tiebraking vote. To be clear, I think 50-50 is quite possible. Democrats winning Arizona, Colorado and Maine and Iowa or North Carolina while losing Alabama. However, increasing partisanship might make a Democratic win in Senate races in Iowa or North Carolina difficult if Trump wins either or both states. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 3, 2020 15:34:10 GMT
With this revelation, I don't see Democrats taking back the Senate this year. Sure they'll likely take Arizona, Colorado and Maine but with the Republicans heavily favoured in Alabama, I can't see a path for the Democrats to win back the Senate. If you can't see a path then I suggest you open your eyes. Aside from this race, there are competitive elections in Iowa, Montana, Georgia, Kansas, South Carolina and Alaska. Sure the GOP are favoured in almost all of them (Iowa is a toss up in my book) but to say there isn't a path to a Democratic controlled Senate is just bloody ridiculous. I seem to annoy you often on here. How do I improve the quality of posts on this site? |
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Post by adlai52 on Oct 3, 2020 15:36:00 GMT
A very silly thing to do and he's lucky Trump will dominate today's news. Even if he loses NC, the Dems still have a path to a majority in the senate. It's a tricky path even without this scandal though. Excluding NC - AZ, CO, IA, GA, ME, MT, possibly GA (Special) and even SC (if you believe the polls) are all potential pick-ups. Of course Alabama will be a loss.
Edit: richard Allen got there first. Still reckon a lot of pundits are sleeping on Texas, polling there has been strong for Biden/congressional Dems and this is the same polling that under estimated O’Rourke’s strength in 2018. On top of this Cornyn is pretty consistently lagging Trump’s polling in the state. Suspect that Biden would have to carry the state for Hegar to win and, while Trump’s still favoured, if Biden is winning nationally by +7-8% nationally he’s got a decent chance in Texas. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 3, 2020 15:43:25 GMT
If you can't see a path then I suggest you open your eyes. Aside from this race, there are competitive elections in Iowa, Montana, Georgia, Kansas, South Carolina and Alaska. Sure the GOP are favoured in almost all of them (Iowa is a toss up in my book) but to say there isn't a path to a Democratic controlled Senate is just bloody ridiculous. I seem to annoy you often on here. How do I improve the quality of posts on this site? Everybody annoys Richard AllenI wouldn't worry.  |
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Richard Allen
Non-Aligned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 17,078
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 3, 2020 16:08:14 GMT
If you can't see a path then I suggest you open your eyes. Aside from this race, there are competitive elections in Iowa, Montana, Georgia, Kansas, South Carolina and Alaska. Sure the GOP are favoured in almost all of them (Iowa is a toss up in my book) but to say there isn't a path to a Democratic controlled Senate is just bloody ridiculous. I seem to annoy you often on here. How do I improve the quality of posts on this site? You could improve the quality of your posts by not posting at all and sparing the rest of us from having to read your idiotic ramblings. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 3, 2020 16:52:23 GMT
I seem to annoy you often on here. How do I improve the quality of posts on this site? You could improve the quality of your posts by not posting at all and sparing the rest of us from having to read your idiotic ramblings. See what I mean.  |
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 3, 2020 18:28:27 GMT
Meanwhile, Cal Cunningham just complicated a race that had been trending his way most of the year... www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article246191610.html...will be heavily overshadowed by Trump and Tillis, also not sure if this is as damaging as it would have been in the past. Eitherway, the state is heavily polled so we should get an answer pretty soon. With this revelation, I don't see Democrats taking back the Senate this year. Sure they'll likely take Arizona, Colorado and Maine but with the Republicans heavily favoured in Alabama, I can't see a path for the Democrats to win back the Senate. This probably hurts Cunningham's chances (especially where he's earning crossover support) but I don't think it's enough to say he's not favoured in NC in the absence of polling. They picked Trump and being represented by a cheating Democratic Senator is not alien to the electorate recently represented by John Edwards. The "sexts" look really tame, albeit pretty hilarious in places ("You are historically sexy" being the most bizarre of them all). |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 3, 2020 19:03:14 GMT
("You are historically sexy" being the most bizarre of them all). "I used to fancy you" ?  |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Oct 4, 2020 16:57:27 GMT
Tillis has tested positive for covid-19. He's isolating for 10 days, not 14. Why? Because the Supreme Court nomination demands his presence in 10 days' time, viral load be damned. Or maybe he's following CDC advice which is the same as the NHS advice? |
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 4, 2020 17:27:27 GMT
He's isolating for 10 days, not 14. Why? Because the Supreme Court nomination demands his presence in 10 days' time, viral load be damned. Or maybe he's following CDC advice which is the same as the NHS advice? Fair enough - I conflated it with the 14-day isolation period for those who've been in contact with people who tested positive. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 5, 2020 18:35:04 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 5, 2020 20:09:47 GMT
They wouldn’t have released the numbers if they looked bad for Cunningham, but I do suspect the ‘sexting’ (if you can even call it that) won’t have as much of an impact as some immediately thought it would.
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 7, 2020 0:10:49 GMT
They wouldn’t have released the numbers if they looked bad for Cunningham, but I do suspect the ‘sexting’ (if you can even call it that) won’t have as much of an impact as some immediately thought it would. That was a public poll and PPP are generally quite reliable about releasing those. However, the story looks to be getting worse for Cunningham as File - a trashy outfit, but the one which originally obtained the sexts - claims to have more sexts which they'll be releasing over the coming weeks, including nudes from his family home. The woman sent them to File on the basis of feeling cross about her neglect and I am pretty sure she has opened herself up to revenge porn charges somewhere along the line there (although File's impending release of them seems legal). |
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