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Post by conservativeestimate on Jul 27, 2020 20:55:37 GMT
North Carolina will be a state to watch at this election, though, even if it normally leans towards the Republicans. Joe Biden does need to win North Carolina given how the formerly Democrat-leaning "rust belt" states are likely to stay Republican this year. I don't think that's true. Biden is miles ahead of Trump in the "formerly Democrat-leaning" rust belt. |
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Rural Radical
Labour
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Post by Rural Radical on Jul 27, 2020 21:10:50 GMT
North Carolina will be a state to watch at this election, though, even if it normally leans towards the Republicans. Joe Biden does need to win North Carolina given how the formerly Democrat-leaning "rust belt" states are likely to stay Republican this year. I don't think that's true. Biden is miles ahead of Trump in the "formerly Democrat-leaning" rust belt. Biden is ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Ohio and Iowa are toss ups at the moment. |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
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Post by Rural Radical on Jul 27, 2020 21:11:53 GMT
With this state being a notable bellwether state in US Presidential elections, Joe Biden needs to win this to stand any chance of defeating Donald Trump, and the polls here are back-and-forth statistically. What are you basing this on? |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Jul 27, 2020 21:16:37 GMT
I don't think that's true. Biden is miles ahead of Trump in the "formerly Democrat-leaning" rust belt. Biden is ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Ohio and Iowa are toss ups at the moment. Is Ohio really a formerly Democrat leaning state as the original poster claimed despite having voted for the Electoral College winner in every election since 1960? |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 27, 2020 21:20:21 GMT
I don't think that's true. Biden is miles ahead of Trump in the "formerly Democrat-leaning" rust belt. Biden is ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Ohio and Iowa are toss ups at the moment. These three states alone have a total of 46 electoral votes, enough to swing the election to Joe Biden if he can maintain his lead there. |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 27, 2020 21:21:12 GMT
With this state being a notable bellwether state in US Presidential elections, Joe Biden needs to win this to stand any chance of defeating Donald Trump, and the polls here are back-and-forth statistically. What are you basing this on? The small winning Republican margin in North Carolina in 2016 (3.66%) and the type of voters it has. |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
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Post by Rural Radical on Jul 27, 2020 21:29:56 GMT
What are you basing this on? The small winning Republican margin in North Carolina in 2016 (3.66%) and the type of voters it has. Biden doesn’t need North Carolina to win the election |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jul 27, 2020 21:41:55 GMT
North Carolina will be a state to watch at this election, though, even if it normally leans towards the Republicans. Joe Biden does need to win North Carolina given how the formerly Democrat-leaning "rust belt" states are likely to stay Republican this year.
The polling averages (according to 538) have Biden far ahead in the rust belt. Up by 9.2% in Minnesota. Up by 6.7% in Pennsylvania. Up by 7.6% in Michigan. Up by 7.1% in Wisconsin. The 'A grade' 538 pollsters all have him at even better margins than these as well.
Whilst you're right that NC is a state to watch, it looks rather unlikely that the rust belt states will votes for Trump again. From my armchair, it's more probable that NC will vote Trump than any of those. Ohio is looking a little different as polls have Biden only 1.4% ahead and he isn't really campaigning there as you'd expect if they thought they could win - that's probably better discussed on the Ohio thread though.
And, no, he absolutely doesn't need to win this state to get to the White House.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 27, 2020 21:53:19 GMT
Nevertheless if he can flip enough electoral votes to win the 2020 US Presidential election, the chances are he will carry North Carolina.
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sol
Non-Aligned
Posts: 16
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Post by sol on Jul 27, 2020 22:06:31 GMT
What are you basing this on? The small winning Republican margin in North Carolina in 2016 (3.66%) and the type of voters it has. FWIW, North Carolina's voter pool is not exactly the same as other Sunbelt states. It's a state where Democrats continue to pull decent percentages of rural white voters (particularly in the West and Piedmont). A lot of these voters swung to Trump in 2016, but I don't think these folks are gone for the Democrats. In any case, winning North Carolina requires a broader appeal than just winning over Romney-Clinton types. |
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CatholicLeft
Co-operative Party
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 27, 2020 23:39:11 GMT
Nevertheless if he can flip enough electoral votes to win the 2020 US Presidential election, the chances are he will carry North Carolina. You are not wrong in that, but you have made a lot of rather unsupportable posts further up. It has all been said - yes, Mr Biden could take North Carolina; no, it is not a bellwether state; no, most of the rust belt states are not lost to Mr. Biden and more likely to stay with President Trump; no, the polls here are not back-and-forth; Mr. Biden does not have to win here "to stand any chance of defeating Donald Trump"; NC is not a swing state, this may change, though it would require several electoral cycles to measure this. I admire your indefatigability, but time to take a breath. |
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Post by Izzyeviel on Aug 5, 2020 21:30:33 GMT
seems to be a rather large voter share for the Libertarian party - surely most of those will flop for Trump come Election day?
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 5, 2020 22:05:12 GMT
seems to be a rather large voter share for the Libertarian party - surely most of those will flop for Trump come Election day? Seeing as most Libertarian voters are never-Trumpers, I think in the end, some (but not 4%) will stick with their candidate, some won't bother at all and some, especially if it remains close, will go with Biden. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 5, 2020 22:11:35 GMT
seems to be a rather large voter share for the Libertarian party - surely most of those will flop for Trump come Election day? I was going to mention that in the Ohio thread, actually, so I'm glad you raised it. It does seem like they're surprisingly high - Jorgensen has been a much lower profile candidate than Gary Johnson. But considering the latter's gaffes (and I say that as a Johnson fan), perhaps avoiding the spotlight has benefited the Libertarians. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Aug 6, 2020 10:11:19 GMT
seems to be a rather large voter share for the Libertarian party - surely most of those will flop for Trump come Election day? I was going to mention that in the Ohio thread, actually, so I'm glad you raised it. It does seem like they're surprisingly high - Jorgensen has been a much lower profile candidate than Gary Johnson. But considering the latter's gaffes (and I say that as a Johnson fan), perhaps avoiding the spotlight has benefited the Libertarians. There were attempts to portray Johnson as a Nader-like figure in the aftermath of the last election, absurdly enough. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 6, 2020 10:57:16 GMT
Trump supporters might have at least not looked totally ridiculous in doing that had HRC won, but surely not the other way round? Though in fact most Hillaryistas seemed to direct their ire towards Jill Stein - irrespective of the fact that even if every single Stein vote had gone to Clinton, she would still have lost  |
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 6, 2020 11:54:56 GMT
Trump supporters might have at least not looked totally ridiculous in doing that had HRC won, but surely not the other way round? Though in fact most Hillaryistas seemed to direct their ire towards Jill Stein - irrespective of the fact that even if every single Stein vote had gone to Clinton, she would still have lost This isn't true (the Green vote was greater than Trump's margin in MI, PA and WI), although the rate at which Stein voters broke for Clinton would have had to be pretty high to ensure the latter's victory. The party probably didn't deliver Republicans a victory, but in theory they could have done so. |
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jamie
Forum Regular
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Post by jamie on Aug 6, 2020 14:49:22 GMT
I wouldn’t assume the Libertarian vote will break disproportionately for Trump (fwiw it’s 1-2% in the polls currently). While the party apparatus itself has traditionally been essentially right wing Republicans (though Jorgensen has gone uber woke without the statism), it’s voters are very much NOTA and are ideologically all over the place. Some are genuine libertarians, some are conservatives, some are leftists, some are communitarians etc.
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Post by BucksDucks on Aug 7, 2020 13:35:53 GMT
There was an exit poll conducted by CBS in 2016 which included a question to Libertarian and Green voters on which of the two main candidates they would have voted for.
(scroll down to the final paragraph in the article)
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
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Post by johng on Aug 14, 2020 1:09:50 GMT
New NC poll from Harper polling. Presidential numbers in-line with other polls from NC. Senate polls have shown Cunningham with a much larger lead than this before though. I have always thought Biden would win this with up-ballot voting rather than down-ballot. President Biden - 45% Trump - 44% Senate Cunningham (D) - 41% Tillis (R) (INC) - 38% Governor Cooper (D) (INC) - 49% Forest (R) - 39% www.nccivitas.org/polling/biden-cunningham-slim-leads/ |
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