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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Apr 18, 2020 11:12:07 GMT
5 electoral college votes
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 7, 2020 12:07:01 GMT
This state hasn't been polled very often at all and the Albquerque Journal has released a poll through several articles (here's one for the House races) conducted by the fairly reliable Research & Polling Inc. At Biden +15%, NM is safe D presidentially, but this poll suggests Ben Ray Lujan (at +9) might be in a little bit more danger in the Senate race (I'm going to stick with the fundamentals in the absence of much polling and keep the contest at safe D, but there's an outside possibility that this contest could be one to watch). Xochitl Torres Small (D) is one of the most endangered Democratic House incumbents and this poll (health warning: district-level polling tends to be less reliable due to smaller sample sizes) has her at 47% to her Republican opponent's 45% (within the margin of error). I'd say that is not great news for her considering the district's Republican trend and the Trump +4% projection in a Biden +15% statewide sample: undecided voters may well lean towards her opponent and put them over the line come November. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 3, 2020 15:03:08 GMT
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630 
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Post by johng on Oct 3, 2020 19:52:22 GMT
They had a poll back in July as 48-48. Essentially the same result. Not too many polls on this district considering how close it's going to be. The only other is one from the start of the month showing Torres Small +2.
If Biden does very well, as some polls are suggesting (there have only been 2 non-partisan polls since August), he should pull her over the line.
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Post by heslingtonian on Oct 28, 2020 7:39:58 GMT
Some evidence that the Republican vote is holding up better here than elsewhere and I reckon they could win one of very few gains from the Democrats in the competitive House race here. Biden 53%, Trump 45%
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Richard Allen
Non-Aligned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 17,078
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 1, 2020 14:32:18 GMT
Albuquerque Journal
Biden: 54
Trump: 42
Lujan: 52
Ronchetti: 44
Lujan seems to be underperforming a little here but not by enough to make it competitive.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 5, 2020 23:10:30 GMT
Trump's gains amongst Hispanics didn't materialize here with Biden winning by double digits..
Ronchetti as polls suggested, outperformed the top of the ticket.. losing by 6 points to Ben Ray Luján.
Yvette Herrell (R) defeated Congresswoman Xochitl Torres Small ( D) in NM-2.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 6, 2020 2:19:13 GMT
Trump's gains amongst Hispanics didn't materialize here with Biden winning by double digits.. Ronchetti as polls suggested, outperformed the top of the ticket.. losing by 6 points to Ben Ray Luján. Yvette Herrell (R) defeated Congresswoman Xochitl Torres Small ( D) in NM-2. They did materialise to an extent but were masked by the collapse of the very high Libertarian vote in the last election. Also, as more return have come in, the "Hispanic trend" has become much smaller outside of Florida. In the Rio Grande Valley, Cuellar was winning by 3 points when it was first observed and is now up by 20+. The swing was real but seems to have been exaggerated (pending the final tally, of course). |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 6, 2020 3:55:16 GMT
Trump's gains amongst Hispanics didn't materialize here with Biden winning by double digits.. Ronchetti as polls suggested, outperformed the top of the ticket.. losing by 6 points to Ben Ray Luján. Yvette Herrell (R) defeated Congresswoman Xochitl Torres Small ( D) in NM-2. They did materialise to an extent but were masked by the collapse of the very high Libertarian vote in the last election. Also, as more return have come in, the "Hispanic trend" has become much smaller outside of Florida. In the Rio Grande Valley, Cuellar was winning by 3 points when it was first observed and is now up by 20+. The swing was real but seems to have been exaggerated (pending the final tally, of course). Maybe slightly exaggerated.. but the fact that Vicente Gonzalez only won by 3 points (Texas-15 should be a prime target for the GOP in 2022), will be of major concern for Texas Send. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Nov 8, 2020 12:11:29 GMT
This appears likely to still remain a competitive state in the future, especially if the Republicans can continue to expand their Hispanic vote showing. Probably now a better bet for the Republicans than Colorado which is quite surprising
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 26,676
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 8, 2020 12:40:16 GMT
GOP gains with Hispanics were in fact very uneven, and they don't seem to have been so successful at it here.
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jamie
Forum Regular
Posts: 4,969
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Post by jamie on Nov 8, 2020 12:51:00 GMT
Trump did make decent gains with Hispanics here (albeit not south Texas levels), but these were cancelled out by Biden gains in Albuquerque.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 24, 2020 22:15:16 GMT
Final certified results:
Biden 501,614 (54.3%)
Trump 401,894 (43.5%)
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