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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 1, 2013 1:10:51 GMT
Same figure for Lib Dem majority comes from Tim Cheal, political reporter of LBC, so that's presumably a line being fed to all the reporters.
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Post by AdminSTB on Mar 1, 2013 1:11:33 GMT
I would be honestly surprised if the Lib Dem majority was that high. On the Election Game website, I went for a Lib Dem majority of 1,470.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 1, 2013 1:11:33 GMT
If UKIP can do this well with not the best election machine in the world it sort of indicates how well they could do if they do in the future. Very good point. In some ways I am a bit disappointed with the party. We knew for about a year that a by election was quite possible. If we had gambled on putting resources into the area in advance and say canvassed the entire constituency over a period of months we might well have had the data that could have made the difference. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 1, 2013 1:16:18 GMT
There were 42649 votes. Assuming no spoiled ballots, a 2500 majority would be around 5.9%, a 3000 majority just over 7.0%.
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 1, 2013 1:18:30 GMT
There were 42649 votes. Assuming no spoiled ballots, a 2500 majority would be around 5.9%, a 3000 majority just over 7.0%. Huhne's percentage majority in 2010 was 7.2% so in order to register a swing in their direction a majority of at least 3,072 votes would be required. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 1, 2013 1:20:43 GMT
That would only be if the majority was over the Conservatives. If they have a 7.2% majority over UKIP that would represent a swing of roughly 18% from LD to UKIP
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Post by tonygreaves on Mar 1, 2013 1:21:14 GMT
The fact is that the three main parties will by now all know what the result is to within 2-3% and closer if they are competent at counting the boxes and the appropriate arithmetic. I don't know how much UKIP know how to do that.
Tim Farron seems to be deliberately prolonging the anguish and no doub thte media are encouraging him to do so since they want to hang on to the few people watching still.
We have held the seat, which is astonishing in the circumstances. I suspect UKIP have come second but that is less clear. Labour may go up a couple of percent and will claim a great victory which everyone else will deride. All the others will probably get 10%. There will not be a recount (the TV are talking of a possibloe recount for second and third places, silly people - of the RO allows that he is mad. No-one seems likely to just miss getting 5%.)
Famous last words, hope I have picked up all the signs correctly!
Tony Greaves
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 1, 2013 1:23:39 GMT
BBC are talking about a recount between 2nd and 3rd.
I always thought you could only have a recount between 1st and 2nd and if you're close to loosing your deposit .
Update - John Curtis saying that shouldn't happen
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 1, 2013 1:25:58 GMT
Labour may go up a couple of percent and will claim a great victory which everyone else will deride. Well, that's the stupidest prediction I've heard all night. Impressive, in its way. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 1, 2013 1:27:07 GMT
BBC are talking about a recount between 2nd and 3rd. I always thought you could only have a recount between 1st and 2nd and if you're close to loosing your deposit . Update - John Curtis saying that shouldn't happen Officially it shouldn't happen but sometimes it does anyway. I think Perth in 1995 was a case in point where the Tories couldn't believe they'd be beaten into third place by Labour. Of course a lot of money depends on it because the bookies offer bets on who comes third, etc. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 1, 2013 1:27:36 GMT
BBC are talking about a recount between 2nd and 3rd. I always thought you could only have a recount between 1st and 2nd and if you're close to loosing your deposit . Update - John Curtis saying that shouldn't happen Recounts are a matter for the Returning Officer, not for John Curtis. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 1, 2013 1:30:56 GMT
Recounts are a matter for the Returning Officer, not for John Curtis. So there's no firm yes/no answer in the rules & regs for a 2nd/3rd recount? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 1, 2013 1:31:17 GMT
John Curtice is wrong; a Returning Officer should have a recount if there is doubt over second and third places. The significance is in the event of an election petition finding that the first place candidate was disqualified, in which case it is open to the court to declare the second placed candidate was the winner of the most votes cast for a qualified candidate and therefore declare them elected.
This is very unlikely and in practice election courts only do so when the first placed candidate was obviously disqualified, which Mike Thornton isn't, but the official guidelines tell ROs to recount for second place for this reason.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Mar 1, 2013 1:31:22 GMT
The LiDem candidate has arrived in the county hall and declared himself as the winner.
UKIP woman just arrived too.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Mar 1, 2013 1:34:28 GMT
BBC are talking about a recount between 2nd and 3rd. I always thought you could only have a recount between 1st and 2nd and if you're close to loosing your deposit . Update - John Curtis saying that shouldn't happen There was a recount for 2nd/3rd place in Bootle in May 1990 (Con 3,220; Lib Dem 3,179) |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2013 1:34:33 GMT
If UKIP can do this well with not the best election machine in the world it sort of indicates how well they could do if they do in the future. They will slip to third or fourth at the general. |
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Post by johnloony on Mar 1, 2013 1:36:14 GMT
The LiDem candidate has arrived in the county hall and declared himself as the winner. Declarations are a matter for the Returning Officer, not the candidate.  |
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 1, 2013 1:48:26 GMT
Farage says his tellers are saying the LD majority is more like 200 than 3,000.
Surely he wouldn't say something like that unless he thought there was some truth in it...
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Post by wondershowzen81 on Mar 1, 2013 1:50:45 GMT
Usually by this stage of the night if you're not going to win you'd be going into expectation management. Could be interesting, could just be Farage being an idiot.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 1, 2013 1:51:02 GMT
Farage says his tellers are saying the LD majority is more like 200 than 3,000. Surely he wouldn't say something like that unless he thought there was some truth in it... If any other party said that yes, Farage will peddle his line up until the last second. |
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