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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Apr 18, 2020 11:10:50 GMT
4 electoral college votes
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Post by casualobserver on May 19, 2020 19:50:16 GMT
According to Chris Ager, the RNC committeeman from New Hampshire and chairperson of the Hillsborough County Republican Party, the Trump campaign has twenty full-time staffers working in the Granite State, a massively greater investment from the Trump team than was seen in 2016, when Trump lost the state by a wafer-thin margin
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Post by adlai52 on May 20, 2020 10:36:26 GMT
According to Chris Ager, the RNC committeeman from New Hampshire and chairperson of the Hillsborough County Republican Party, the Trump campaign has twenty full-time staffers working in the Granite State, a massively greater investment from the Trump team than was seen in 2016, when Trump lost the state by a wafer-thin margin Alongside Minnesota, New Hampshire is probably the Trump campaign's best chance of a pick-up in November. It's been a while since we had credible polls out of either, although Biden has had healthy leads in both states. I would expect New Hampshire and Maine to be quite closely correlated and Trump did carry the 2nd District in Maine in 2016. Earlier in the year, Trump's campaign floated the idea of seriously contesting New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia - I'd say all four are very unlikely to flip, but they have the resources to put pressure on the Democrats in all these states. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 20, 2020 10:39:53 GMT
Consensus among pundits is the Gov Chris Sununu (R) and Sen Jeanne Shaheen (D) will both be re-elected easily and that Biden will win with relative ease. I think that is probably correct but there has been very little polling to back up those assumptions so it is certainly possible that any of those races could be more competitive than expected.
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Post by conservativeestimate on May 20, 2020 15:01:28 GMT
Trump referring to New Hampshire as a "drug infested den" in 2017 won't help him here.
Plus the registration gap between Democrats and Republicans in the state is widening in the Dems favour.
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Post by casualobserver on May 20, 2020 15:53:03 GMT
Consensus among pundits is the Gov Chris Sununu (R) and Sen Jeanne Shaheen (D) will both be re-elected easily and that Biden will win with relative ease. I think that is probably correct but there has been very little polling to back up those assumptions so it is certainly possible that any of those races could be more competitive than expected. four years ago today was that Trump didn't stand any realistic chance of becoming President - a consensus which, I recall well, you were very much part of. Not all 'experts' are in fact so sanguine about Biden's chances in NH. If the electoral college margin is relatively narrow next November, then NH will be very much in play. For what they are worth (and the have a lot more comparative value than absolute value at this stage) the RCP polling averages today put Biden ahead in NH by 4.6% and ahead nationwide by 4.8%. Given the current Electoral College bias in favour of the GOP in close presidential elections, it's difficult to see NH as falling with "relative ease" into the Democrats' list of states if the Electoral college is at 269-269, which would in all likelihood provide the narrowest possible Trump victory. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 20, 2020 16:02:44 GMT
Consensus among pundits is the Gov Chris Sununu (R) and Sen Jeanne Shaheen (D) will both be re-elected easily and that Biden will win with relative ease. I think that is probably correct but there has been very little polling to back up those assumptions so it is certainly possible that any of those races could be more competitive than expected. four years ago today was that Trump didn't stand any realistic chance of becoming President - a consensus which, I recall well, you were very much part of. Not all 'experts' are in fact so sanguine about Biden's chances in NH. If the electoral college margin is relatively narrow next November, then NH will be very much in play. I thought that my post quite clearly expressed some doubt as to the consensus. |
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Post by casualobserver on May 20, 2020 16:11:42 GMT
"Consensus among pundits" four years ago today was that Trump didn't stand any realistic chance of becoming President - a consensus which, I recall well, you were very much part of. Not all 'experts' are in fact so sanguine about Biden's chances in NH. If the electoral college margin is relatively narrow next November, then NH will be very much in play. I thought that my post quite clearly expressed some doubt as to the consensus. Stating that you "think that it is probably correct" that Biden will win NH with "relative ease" quite clearly expressed a level of confidence which, I respectfully suggest, is difficult to justify at this time. Do you not remember how confidently and, to be quite frank, contemptuously you brushed aside my argument in October 2016 that it would be the rust belt that could take Trump over the line? We can be pretty sure that the safe states will stay safe. We can also be reasonably sure in general terms as to the relative marginality of one state against another. But six months out we really can't convert that knowledge to justify in respect of any key state race, or the Presidential race as a whole, that for any specific prediction we "think that it is probably correct" |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 20, 2020 23:51:45 GMT
I thought that my post quite clearly expressed some doubt as to the consensus. Stating that you "think that it is probably correct" that Biden will win NH with "relative ease" quite clearly expressed a level of confidence which, I respectfully suggest, is difficult to justify at this time. Do you not remember how confidently and, to be quite frank, contemptuously you brushed aside my argument in October 2016 that it would be the rust belt that could take Trump over the line? We can be pretty sure that the safe states will stay safe. We can also be reasonably sure in general terms as to the relative marginality of one state against another. But six months out we really can't convert that knowledge to justify in respect of any key state race, or the Presidential race as a whole, that for any specific prediction we "think that it is probably correct" This is all rather tedious. I spoke of a general consensus among pundits about the statewide races in New Hampshire. Specifically I would point to Sabato's Crystal Ball (Lean Biden, Likely Shaheen and Likely Sununu), Cook Political Report (Lean Biden, Safe Shaheen and Likely Sununu) and Inside elections (Lean Biden, Safe Shaheen and Lean Sununu). I broadly agree with their take and would offer the same ratings on all three races as Sabato. Obviously if you are ranking a race as Lean X you think X is going to win, probably with some degree of comfort. If you don't have a reasonable degree of confidence in that you should be rating the race as a toss up or tilt X. So yes, at this present moment in time, while acknowledging some doubt as to the result I think that Biden will probably win New Hampshire and I don't have a problem with saying so. This section of the forum would be somewhat dull if we limited ourselves to just saying that state X is competitive and that either candidate can win it. |
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Post by MacShimidh on Jul 30, 2020 21:08:18 GMT
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johng
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Post by johng on Sept 30, 2020 7:33:52 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Sept 30, 2020 8:03:43 GMT
Very much a suburban state in many ways and one that should go to Biden quite easily.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 30, 2020 11:56:41 GMT
Second a University of Massachusetts Lowell poll. They've released a few today and the others (TX/NC) are both slightly better for Trump than other recent polls in those states - as this one is. President Biden - 53% Trump - 44% Senate Shaheen (D) (INC) - 56% Messner (R) - 37% www.uml.edu/docs/2020-NH-Sept-Topline_tcm18-330589.pdfAnd in the Governor's race Sununu (R) (INC) - 60% Feltes (D) - 34% |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Sept 30, 2020 13:06:22 GMT
Second a University of Massachusetts Lowell poll. They've released a few today and the others (TX/NC) are both slightly better for Trump than other recent polls in those states - as this one is. President Biden - 53% Trump - 44% Senate Shaheen (D) (INC) - 56% Messner (R) - 37% www.uml.edu/docs/2020-NH-Sept-Topline_tcm18-330589.pdfAnd in the Governor's race Sununu (R) (INC) - 60% Feltes (D) - 34% The NH 2022 senate race will be very tough for Hassan if Biden wins and Sununu runs. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 30, 2020 13:32:07 GMT
And in the Governor's race Sununu (R) (INC) - 60% Feltes (D) - 34% The NH 2022 senate race will be very tough for Hassan if Biden wins and Sununu runs. Hard to see Sununu not running if Biden does win. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Oct 28, 2020 7:40:52 GMT
Not a good fit for Trump's version of the Republican Party. Biden 55%, Trump 43%
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Oct 30, 2020 0:42:34 GMT
President (New Hampshire)
Biden (D) 52%
Trump (R) 44%
Jorgensen (L) 2%
(1080 LV)
Governor (New Hampshire)
Sununu (R) 60%
Feltes (D) 35%
Perry (L) 1%
(1080 LV)
House (New Hampshire 1)
Pappas (D) 49%
Mowers (R) 44%
Dumont (L) 1%
(560 LV)
House (New Hampshire 2)
Kuster (D) 54%
Negron (R) 39%
Olding (L) 3%
(458 LV)
10/23-10/26 by Saint Anselm College
Wouldn't be surprised to see Sununu run for Senate in 2022.. and in a Biden midterm, he'd likely be favoured.
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David
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Post by David on Nov 3, 2020 6:17:18 GMT
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minionofmidas
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 3, 2020 7:28:29 GMT
In both Millsfield and Dixville Notch, Trump received the same number of votes in the general election that he got in the primary, so he's on track to win 18 million votes out of the projected 150-160 million. [/troll]
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 3, 2020 10:42:08 GMT
Dixville Notch was 5-0 Biden, the first sweep since Nixon in 1972.
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