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Minnesota
Aug 20, 2020 14:26:33 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Aug 20, 2020 14:26:33 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 20, 2020 14:43:50 GMT
Trafalgar has a strong bias towards Republicans so I’m not really sure that qualifies as evidence of Minnesota actually being close. For what it’s worth, Fox polled here at the end of July and found it Biden +13, which was more Democratic than simultaneous polls in Michigan or Pennsylvania, the former in particular being a state widely recognised as the least Trumpy this time of the states he won in 2016.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 20, 2020 15:19:23 GMT
There's a long history of really bad polling of Minnesota with a big R-tilt so caveat emptor and so on.
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 20, 2020 15:22:40 GMT
The reason why the Trafalgar poll is significant is not because it shows a close race, but because it shows a race 5% closer than its last Minnesota poll a few weeks ago.
Recent polling suggests NH is too much of a stretch (likely D, presidentially). This is the one Clinton state worth targeting.
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Minnesota
Aug 20, 2020 15:30:10 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Aug 20, 2020 15:30:10 GMT
Biden has a 5% lead here in the RCP average, smaller than Hillary's polling lead in Wisconsin on election day 2016
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 4, 2020 23:31:02 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 7, 2020 11:55:11 GMT
The NRA has been increasingly partisan in recent years while Democrats have become more uniformly in favour of gun control measures. Against this trend, however, the first of these organisations has just endorsed (Democratic) Collin Peterson's reelection bid. I think the odds are still against him but it could be one of the most critical, majority-making endorsements.
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AJS
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Post by AJS on Sept 16, 2020 0:42:57 GMT
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Minnesota
Sept 16, 2020 1:43:39 GMT
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 16, 2020 1:43:39 GMT
FWIW Biden pulls a point further ahead from MC’s last Minnesota poll, maybe split the difference with the nine point Biden lead in the Siena College/New York Times Upshot poll from Saturday and you’ll be somewhere close to the actual result; there’s a distinct sense Trump is doing less well in the Southeast of the State around Rochester than in 2016.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 16, 2020 9:26:43 GMT
ABC/Washington Post
Biden - 57% Trump - 41%
Definitely on the higher end, but it’s important to realise that Minnesota doesn’t look to be trending right this election.
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Minnesota
Sept 25, 2020 20:04:26 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Sept 25, 2020 20:04:26 GMT
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 1, 2020 23:41:01 GMT
Ratings change from the University of Virginia Center for Politics Crystal Ball (Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and J Miles Coleman: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 8, 2020 16:52:05 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 9, 2020 6:42:04 GMT
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Minnesota
Oct 22, 2020 10:48:03 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 22, 2020 10:48:03 GMT
Minnesota Senate race poll
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 22, 2020 15:27:38 GMT
For context, all other polling has Biden and Smith leading by virtually the same eg; Civiqs released yesterday has Biden +10%, Smith +11%.
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 22, 2020 15:46:04 GMT
For context, all other polling has Biden and Smith leading by virtually the same eg; Civiqs released yesterday has Biden +10%, Smith +11%. Smith’s campaign were saying off the record last weekend their numbers were in the 7-9% range but hadn’t significantly budged in weeks.
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Minnesota
Oct 22, 2020 19:52:13 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 22, 2020 19:52:13 GMT
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CatholicLeft
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Minnesota
Oct 22, 2020 22:20:36 GMT
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 22, 2020 22:20:36 GMT
Indeed, as we know. Are we likely to see a poll?
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 22, 2020 23:10:59 GMT
Indeed, as we know. Are we likely to see a poll? Probably not anything too credible; there aren’t a stack of House polls this year, partly because control isn’t at stake, but also because most pollsters are concentrating on the Presidential and Senate elections, which is/are more competitive. There might be more polls of Minnesota from which you can extrapolate rough District figures.
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