jamie
Forum Regular
Posts: 4,969 
|
Post by jamie on Sept 2, 2020 12:16:29 GMT
I'm going to put my neck out and say I think the only states to flip will be Arizona, Minnesota and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Although Trump's trade deal was lacklustre, the law and order message plus attacking Biden as a globalist (seemingly the worst thing you can be as a politician these days) for NAFTA, TTIP and the Paris Climate Accords should get Trump over the line in the rust belt. I reckon Trump loses Arizona and NE-02 because they didn't exactly warm to him last time and if the Lincoln Project is going to have success I think it'll be in areas which swung sharply against Trump last time where he doesn't have much potential for improvement. Trump isn’t really attacking Biden much on free trade generally, doesn’t mention TTIP and the Paris accords are popular so not sure this is what would caud him to win. The Lincoln Project are extremely online and will not have a serious impact on the election outcome, nevermind such a state specific one. |
|
|
|
Post by curiousliberal on Sept 2, 2020 12:22:41 GMT
I'm going to put my neck out and say I think the only states to flip will be Arizona, Minnesota and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Although Trump's trade deal was lacklustre, the law and order message plus attacking Biden as a globalist (seemingly the worst thing you can be as a politician these days) for NAFTA, TTIP and the Paris Climate Accords should get Trump over the line in the rust belt. I reckon Trump loses Arizona and NE-02 because they didn't exactly warm to him last time and if the Lincoln Project is going to have success I think it'll be in areas which swung sharply against Trump last time where he doesn't have much potential for improvement. Trump isn’t really attacking Biden much on free trade generally, doesn’t mention TTIP and the Paris accords are popular so not sure this is what would caud him to win. The Lincoln Project are extremely online and will not have a serious impact on the election outcome, nevermind such a state specific one. The Lincoln Project won't directly impact voters all that much, but they apparently get inside Trump's head and rattle him into making bad campaign decisions (and may be why his campaign is running ads in Washington DC for a select audience of allies, not voters). He is not a very smart man and one of their ads alleged specific insiders were sabotaging his campaign (including one-time campaign manager Brad Parscale). He was subsequently said to have lost some of his trust in Brad Parscale. |
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 1,636
Member is Online
|
Post by johng on Sept 10, 2020 16:40:35 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by timmullen1 on Sept 10, 2020 20:01:34 GMT
The AARP polls is by Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group. The former get a B/C rating from 538, the latter don't appear to be rated but from their website all the named staff are Republicans, so I'm guessing this is a joint effort between a Democratic pollster and a Republican pollster. |
|
|
|
Post by curiousliberal on Sept 10, 2020 20:19:38 GMT
The AARP polls is by Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group. The former get a B/C rating from 538, the latter don't appear to be rated but from their website all the named staff are Republicans, so I'm guessing this is a joint effort between a Democratic pollster and a Republican pollster. Fabrizio is one of two pollsters being paid by the Trump campaign (the reliable one, incidentally) and Benenson was apparently Obama 2012's preferred company. You're right - this research appears to be independent of the Trump/Biden campaigns. |
|
|
|
Post by timmullen1 on Sept 10, 2020 20:46:30 GMT
The AARP polls is by Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group. The former get a B/C rating from 538, the latter don't appear to be rated but from their website all the named staff are Republicans, so I'm guessing this is a joint effort between a Democratic pollster and a Republican pollster. Fabrizio is one of two pollsters being paid by the Trump campaign (the reliable one, incidentally) and Benenson was apparently Obama 2012's preferred company. You're right - this research appears to be independent of the Trump/Biden campaigns. Yes in case you weren't familiar with the lettering, the AARP is the American Association of Retired Persons, who claim to be the largest membership organisation campaigning on issues relating to senior citizens. There are a few AARP State polls out today, but they seem to be using Fabrizio Ward and Hart Research in a number of States (Iowa, Georgia, Maine and Montana), whilst Benenson/GS Strategy have done Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. |
|
|
|
Michigan
Sept 27, 2020 19:14:24 GMT
via mobile
Post by conservativeestimate on Sept 27, 2020 19:14:24 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by thinwhiteduke on Oct 11, 2020 15:41:10 GMT
Senate (Michigan)
Peters (D) 47%
James (R) 44%
10/6-10/9 by YouGov
1181 LV
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 1,636
Member is Online
|
Post by johng on Oct 11, 2020 17:08:26 GMT
Senate (Michigan) Peters (D) 47% James (R) 44% 10/6-10/9 by YouGov 1181 LV Pretty poor for Peters in that poll.
Presidential numbers were... Biden - 52% Trump - 46% So Peters is running 5 points behind Biden whilst James is running 2 points behind Trump.
Still, even on those numbers Biden will drag him across the line.
There was another poll today from Baldwin Wallace University with slightly better numbers for Peters with him running only 2 points behind Biden.
Biden - 50%
Trump - 43% Senate Peters (D) (INC) - 48%
James (R) - 42%
|
|
jamie
Forum Regular
Posts: 4,969
|
Post by jamie on Oct 12, 2020 12:27:15 GMT
There’s some variance across the polls in how the Senate numbers compare to the presidential race, but I suspect Peters will end up underperforming Biden. He’s long given off Bill Nelson vibes, and will only likely win because he’s in a more favourable state.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 1,636
Member is Online
|
Post by johng on Oct 12, 2020 12:55:00 GMT
There’s some variance across the polls in how the Senate numbers compare to the presidential race, but I suspect Peters will end up underperforming Biden. He’s long given off Bill Nelson vibes, and will only likely win because he’s in a more favourable state. I don't see the scenario where Biden wins by between 6 and 10, as polls suggest, and Peters loses.
A difference with Nelson is that his campaign was incredibly sluggish. It was always behind Scott's. He was also quite arrogant in the sense that he didn't truly appreciate how strong a challenger Scott was. I think Peters realises this race is a bit too close for comfort. He also won't be outspent like Nelson massively was.
|
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group" - Douglas Adams
Posts: 4,955
Member is Online
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 12, 2020 15:24:43 GMT
He’s long given off Bill Nelson vibes ... |
|
|
|
Post by thinwhiteduke on Oct 12, 2020 17:27:47 GMT
Michigan :
Biden 48%
Trump 40%
MIsen:
Peters (D) 43%
James (R) 42%
SienaResearch/UpshotNYT, LV, 10/6-11
In a better national environment for Republicans, Peters would be in serious trouble..
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 1,636
Member is Online
|
Post by johng on Oct 12, 2020 17:34:59 GMT
Abysmal for Peters (In what were two excellent polls for Biden). If you look at the data though, more of the undecided are Dem leaning than GOP.
As I said above about the Yougov poll, he's very lucky that Biden will drag him across the finishing line.
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,456
Member is Online
|
Post by nelson on Oct 12, 2020 17:36:30 GMT
|
|
Richard Allen
Non-Aligned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 17,094
|
Post by Richard Allen on Oct 12, 2020 17:42:38 GMT
Michigan : Biden 48% Trump 40% MI sen: Peters (D) 43% James (R) 42% SienaResearch/UpshotNYT, LV, 10/6-11 In a better national environment for Republicans, Peters would be in serious trouble.. He might be anyway, James is attracting a lot of Black voters in Detroit. There is going to be a substantial amount of Biden/James voters in the Black community. Yes to a degree, but if Biden wins by 8 I don't see any real chance of Peters losing. If Biden only wins by a few points the Senate race could be very close. |
|
|
|
Post by curiousliberal on Oct 12, 2020 18:04:26 GMT
Michigan : Biden 48% Trump 40% MI sen: Peters (D) 43% James (R) 42% SienaResearch/UpshotNYT, LV, 10/6-11 In a better national environment for Republicans, Peters would be in serious trouble.. He might be anyway, James is attracting a lot of Black voters in Detroit. There is going to be a substantial amount of Biden/James voters in the Black community. I have read that he is doing a bit more outreach this time but I'm really skeptical of how effective this is going to be beyond a 5% shift from his 2018 within that demographic (relative to the Republican baseline, that is). He did about ~1.5% better with African-American voters than Bill Schuette in 2018 and made far more important gains amongst certain subsets of non-black voters who have tended to be more persuadable in Michigan elections. The high percentage of undecided, Biden-voting black voters in this poll suggests two things: 1. They really should have pushed for leaners, because polls are much less predictive when we're less than a month out and both of the only serious candidates are still in the low forties. 2. Undecided and normally reliably Democratic voters in particular are probably going to break very heavily for Peters, in line with similar trends we've seen in previous electoral cycles and other races (see: TXSEN) where low name recognition leads to more of them saying they're undecided on downballot races but nonetheless voting straight-ticket in the end. The longer a high percentage of voters stay undecided, the more reason there is for their party's candidate to panic, but as with Cal Cunningham's large margins earlier in the race, there isn't a strong case for black Biden voters to become more open to ticket-splitting (relative to white Michiganders, that is). This doesn't hold true in ME or MT, but MI is a large state and James is a known quantity whose 2020 candidacy doesn't seem too different from his 2018 bid. Other polls with a lower percentage of undecided voters show Peters ahead by more, with the exception of Trafalgar. Obviously Peters is in serious trouble to not be consolidating his base as fast as James is consolidating Trump's, so I'm moving this back to a strong lean D, but this is less competitive than margins alone would suggest (the reverse of TXSEN). |
|
jamie
Forum Regular
Posts: 4,969
|
Post by jamie on Oct 12, 2020 18:12:01 GMT
He might be anyway, James is attracting a lot of Black voters in Detroit. There is going to be a substantial amount of Biden/James voters in the Black community. The ‘John James will win thanks to black voters’ theory doesn’t stand up to much scrutiny. He’s running even with Trump in that poll with black voters, with the difference being more Biden/Undecideds. Similarly, other polls have found no noticeable overperformance. Even looking back at 2018, black voters/Detroit were his smallest overperformance compared to other Republicans. If James does win, it will be because he ran against a lacklustre incumbent who largely lost many ‘traditional’ white swing voters, rather than a shockingly good performance with blacks. |
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,456
Member is Online
|
Post by nelson on Oct 12, 2020 18:18:46 GMT
He might be anyway, James is attracting a lot of Black voters in Detroit. There is going to be a substantial amount of Biden/James voters in the Black community. The ‘John James will win thanks to black voters’ theory doesn’t stand up to much scrutiny. He’s running even with Trump in that poll with black voters, with the difference being more Biden/Undecideds. Similarly, other polls have found no noticeable overperformance. Even looking back at 2018, black voters/Detroit were his smallest overperformance compared to other Republicans. If James does win, it will be because he ran against a lacklustre incumbent who largely lost many ‘traditional’ white swing voters, rather than a shockingly good performance with blacks. Lack of pressuring undecideds is likely the main reason it's that close. The polls show a lot of black voters are "undecided" in this race. We'll see about Blacks voting for James. I think there'll be a lot of a shy James voters, it's not really socially acceptable to vote GOP among Blacks in Detroit, and that is likely reflected in the polls. |
|
jamie
Forum Regular
Posts: 4,969
|
Post by jamie on Oct 12, 2020 18:22:02 GMT
But we'll see about Blacks voting for James. I think there'll be a lot of a shy James voters, it's not really socially acceptable to vote GOP among Blacks in Detroit, and that is likely reflected in the polls. But it wasn’t any more socially acceptable in 2018, and that was the area of his weakest overperformance. |
|
