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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 1, 2020 23:19:34 GMT
My final ratings (polls close in 40 minutes):
MA-SEN: likely Markey
MA-01: likely Neal
MA-04: tilt Mermell
MA-08: lean Lynch
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Post by conservativeestimate on Sept 2, 2020 5:03:27 GMT
Great night for Ed Markey.
A Kennedy has been on the Congressional primary ballot in Massachusetts 27 times. This is the first loss.
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Post by MacShimidh on Sept 2, 2020 7:52:46 GMT
What a humiliating defeat for Kennedy. Losing by more than 10 points statewide is bad enough, but he lost his own home town of Newton, and only barely won the town of Barnstaple where the Kennedy Compound is. That’s his political career over, surely?
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CatholicLeft
Co-operative Party
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 2, 2020 8:51:25 GMT
What a humiliating defeat for Kennedy. Losing by more than 10 points statewide is bad enough, but he lost his own home town of Newton, and only barely won the town of Barnstaple where the Kennedy Compound is. That’s his political career over, surely? Not at all, he'll lick his wounds and be back. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Sept 2, 2020 8:54:12 GMT
What a humiliating defeat for Kennedy. Losing by more than 10 points statewide is bad enough, but he lost his own home town of Newton, and only barely won the town of Barnstaple where the Kennedy Compound is. That’s his political career over, surely? Not at all, he'll lick his wounds and be back. Thinking ahead if Kennedy plans to run for Senate again, I doubt Warren is retiring in 2024. If Markey calls it a day in 2026, then Rep. Ayanna Pressley may run for his seat and Kennedy would again face a strong challenge. |
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CatholicLeft
Co-operative Party
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 2,836
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 2, 2020 9:24:17 GMT
Not at all, he'll lick his wounds and be back. Thinking ahead if Kennedy plans to run for Senate again, I doubt Warren is retiring in 2024. If Markey calls it a day in 2026, then Rep. Ayanna Pressley may run for his seat and Kennedy would again face a strong challenge. Young Mr Kennedy will not sit quietly over the next few years - he will build a strong profile and Ayanna Pressley will not be the same usurper-like figure in 2 years that she is now. |
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 2, 2020 9:47:12 GMT
What a humiliating defeat for Kennedy. Losing by more than 10 points statewide is bad enough, but he lost his own home town of Newton, and only barely won the town of Barnstaple where the Kennedy Compound is. That’s his political career over, surely? Not at all, he'll lick his wounds and be back. If Auchincloss prevails in Kennedy’s old seat and it looks like he will, JKIII has a firm case for getting back into Congress in 2022. Alternatively, I could see him challenging for a statewide row office/the governorship. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 2, 2020 9:53:18 GMT
Not at all, he'll lick his wounds and be back. If Auchincloss prevails in Kennedy’s old seat and it looks like he will, JKIII has a firm case for getting back into Congress in 2022. Alternatively, I could see him challenging for a statewide row office/the governorship. Warren may/may not retire in 2024 (personally I think she will), but the decision may become moot if a President Biden appoints her to his Cabinet. Kennedy’s name recognition could help him in a lower turnout special election. |
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Post by kvasir on Sept 2, 2020 9:54:51 GMT
Not at all, he'll lick his wounds and be back. Thinking ahead if Kennedy plans to run for Senate again, I doubt Warren is retiring in 2024. If Markey calls it a day in 2026, then Rep. Ayanna Pressley may run for his seat and Kennedy would again face a strong challenge. Whilst unlikely, if Biden were to both win and then appoint Warren to the cabinet, that opens up a special election which he could run for. It is up to him. He may just walk away. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Sept 2, 2020 10:36:40 GMT
In retrospect, Justice Democrats may have had better luck if they'd focused on winning the open race in MA-04 with split opposition instead of going all in on Morse. I guess hindsight is 2020...
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 26,676
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 2, 2020 10:53:19 GMT
Never mind Pelosi, that last minute endorsement of Kennedy by Beto O'Rourke doesn't look so hot in retrospect.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 2, 2020 10:56:58 GMT
Never mind Pelosi, that last minute endorsement of Kennedy by Beto O'Rourke doesn't look so hot in retrospect. It wasn't last minute - it was a reiteration of an earlier endorsement. |
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 2, 2020 10:59:30 GMT
In retrospect, Justice Democrats may have had better luck if they'd focused on winning the open race in MA-04 with split opposition instead of going all in on Morse. I guess hindsight is 2020... It could have gone worse for them, actually. MA-04 still isn't yet decided but the JD candidate was Leckey who is far behind. Mermell's late momentum relied on her already being the frontrunner among progressive candidates. Those who support ranked choice voting will now have a very good case for it if Auchincloss wins, and it's on MA's ballot in November. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Sept 2, 2020 11:01:54 GMT
Never mind Pelosi, that last minute endorsement of Kennedy by Beto O'Rourke doesn't look so hot in retrospect. It wasn't last minute - it was a reiteration of an earlier endorsement. I'm still sulking about Morse losing but it's good that O'Rourke and Pelosi couldn't save Kennedy. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Posts: 13,624
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 2, 2020 11:40:35 GMT
The funniest primary result last night is actually MA-8 (the Masshole district), where hilarious walking meme incumbent Stephen Lynch won 2-to-1 after barely campaigning against an extremely Online doctor who spent a fortune.
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Post by conservativeestimate on Sept 2, 2020 11:43:39 GMT
The funniest primary result last night is actually MA-8 (the Masshole district), where hilarious walking meme incumbent Stephen Lynch won 2-to-1 after barely campaigning against an extremely Online doctor who spent a fortune. Seems like the more low profile the race, the easier it is for the incumbent. |
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 2, 2020 11:45:05 GMT
The funniest primary result last night is actually MA-8 (the Masshole district), where hilarious walking meme incumbent Stephen Lynch won 2-to-1 after barely campaigning against an extremely Online doctor who spent a fortune. Markey won his district by more than he won the state. Progressives for Lynch!  In all seriousness, he is a good cultural fit for his district and it will probably take a socially moderate candidate (with more support than Goldstein got) to best him. |
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 2, 2020 14:56:33 GMT
DDHQ has called MA-04 for Auchincloss.
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Richard Allen
Non-Aligned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 17,078
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 2, 2020 15:27:56 GMT
What a humiliating defeat for Kennedy. Losing by more than 10 points statewide is bad enough, but he lost his own home town of Newton, and only barely won the town of Barnstaple where the Kennedy Compound is. That’s his political career over, surely? I don't think losing to a well regarded incumbent, especially one whose positions and priorities fits so well with the increasingly middle class liberal bent of the state, is either humiliating or career ending. It might actually be the kick that Kennedy needs if he is to ever run for President. While he ran a technically good campaign using social media very well he never really articulated a vision of why voters should ditch Markey for him other than a) he is younger and b) he is a Kennedy. |
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Richard Allen
Non-Aligned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 17,078
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 2, 2020 15:37:16 GMT
In retrospect, Justice Democrats may have had better luck if they'd focused on winning the open race in MA-04 with split opposition instead of going all in on Morse. I guess hindsight is 2020... More to the point taking down the Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee was always going to be an uphill task. This isn't like chairing the Foreign Affairs committee (Engel) which is a position that provides little opportunity to benefit constituents. Neal is already a bloody important player and if Biden wins the presidency then Neal becomes one of the most powerful men in Washington. EDIT: OF course that is why Neal was such a tempting target for the progressive movement. They had hoped that if they took down Neal then the much more left wing Rep Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) would replace him as Chairman of Ways and Means. |
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