Kyle Kondik and J Miles Coleman of The Center for Politics Crystal Ball move their rating from Leans Republican to Toss Up.
"We’re moving the single electoral vote in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District from Leans Republican to Toss-up. We already moved the district’s congressional race, in which Golden is seeking a second term, from Toss-up to Leans Democratic a few weeks ago. The NYT/Siena poll found Golden up by 19 points, which bolsters that change. But the presidential race appears to be close in the district. NYT/Siena, Quinnipiac, and AARP found Biden up by two, nine, and four points, respectively, in the heavily white, working-class district. This after Trump carried the district by 10 points in 2016, a massive shift from Barack Obama’s nine-point win there in 2012.
The potential for a Biden victory in ME-2 underscores one of the trends in polling this year: Biden is polling better than Hillary Clinton performed mostly because he is running better with white voters, both with a four-year college degree (a group with which he is doing extremely well for a Democrat) and without a four-year degree (a group he’s losing, but by less than Clinton). Given these shifts, it stands to reason that Biden could be doing markedly better in lily-white Maine than Clinton, who only carried the state by three points overall.
The single ME-2 vote looms large. Our current Electoral College ratings have 269 electoral votes at least leaning to Biden, so ME-2 could hypothetically be vote no. 270 for Biden, although one probably would expect states that were closer in 2016 to flip before it does (namely, the crucial trio of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin)".
Pretty poor article imo. ‘Polls show him massively underperforming 2016 but we found some people who say they still support him so they must be wrong here’ is not a strong argument. Polls of Maine 2nd (with the caveat of them always being a 50% subsample) have shown some of the strongest swings away from Trump of any part of the electoral college. If journalists really want to write vox pop articles on how Trump’s support is holding strong and be somewhat based in reality, at least pop off to Miami or Washington DC.