Maine at large

[curiousliberal]

Nov 10, 2020 9:43:43 GMT Richard Allen said:

Given that Democrats now hold the trifecta here they could move to shore up Golden in the 2nd district and make it much harder for the GOP to take the electoral vote from that District.

The first district will obviously remain anchored on the Democratic stronghold of Portland but instead of extending as far east along the coast it could move north into GOP territory. In return the Democrat leaning areas south of Bangor would be moved into the second. This is slightly complicated by Golden living in Lewistown so Androscoggin County will have to stay in the second.

Golden did shockingly well considering the terrible night for House Democrats (results by CD aren't in yet but only Peterson appears to have outperformed him relative to Biden in their districts). Do you think he might go for a leadership role if he thinks the redistricting process will lean in his favour? I'd hope to see his kind of populism become a bit more prevalent, but 53-47 is still pretty close and Cheri Bustos fared quite poorly after becoming DCCC chair.

[Richard Allen]

Nov 10, 2020 10:12:53 GMT curiousliberal said:

Nov 10, 2020 9:43:43 GMT Richard Allen said:

Given that Democrats now hold the trifecta here they could move to shore up Golden in the 2nd district and make it much harder for the GOP to take the electoral vote from that District.

The first district will obviously remain anchored on the Democratic stronghold of Portland but instead of extending as far east along the coast it could move north into GOP territory. In return the Democrat leaning areas south of Bangor would be moved into the second. This is slightly complicated by Golden living in Lewistown so Androscoggin County will have to stay in the second.

Golden did shockingly well considering the terrible night for House Democrats (results by CD aren't in yet but only Peterson appears to have outperformed him relative to Biden in their districts). Do you think he might go for a leadership role if he thinks the redistricting process will lean in his favour? I'd hope to see his kind of populism become a bit more prevalent, but 53-47 is still pretty close and Cheri Bustos fared quite poorly after becoming DCCC chair.

He did very well but he made a lot of enemies internally by refusing to endorse Gideon. There was nothing official but it is widely assumed that he cut a deal with Collins where they both declined to comment about the other's election.

[peterl]

Incidentially, an interesting downballot race in Maine with a Green candidate only narrowly missing out on election to the State House: Frederick Horch in District 49 achieving 48.3% of the vote.

[maxque]

Nov 10, 2020 9:43:43 GMT Richard Allen said:

Given that Democrats now hold the trifecta here they could move to shore up Golden in the 2nd district and make it much harder for the GOP to take the electoral vote from that District.

The first district will obviously remain anchored on the Democratic stronghold of Portland but instead of extending as far east along the coast it could move north into GOP territory. In return the Democrat leaning areas south of Bangor would be moved into the second. This is slightly complicated by Golden living in Lewistown so Androscoggin County will have to stay in the second.

Maine redistricting needs a 2/3 majority.

[thinwhiteduke]

Final certified results:

Biden 435,072 (53.1%)
Trump 360,737 (44.0%)

[Richard Allen]

I intend to write at length about the Senate election here at some point. In the meantime however I would ask the forum to consider the following question

Is Sara Gideon

a) Exceptionally stupid
b) A monumental grifter

I ask this question because her post election campaign finance report shows that as 23rd November she had just shy of $15 million left in her campaign account. Despite having a massive financial advantage she only outspent Collins $8.2 million to $6.6 million during the final 3 weeks of the campaign.

[Richard Allen]

I have been intending to write at length about the Senate race here for some time because while it was far from the only unexpected result it was very different to every other major race that defied expectations. While GOP Senate candidates significantly overperformed the polls in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, South Carolina and Texas these were all red states where the GOP candidate started the cycle as heavy favourite. None of these results were really all that surprising even if the margins where greater than expected. North Carolina always looked fairly close at Presidential and Senate level so while Tillis overperformed the polls an outcome of him and Trump both winning narrowly always looked well with in the realms of possibility.

Maine was different, Susan Collins had trailed in every single public poll this year and unlike the other Republicans who survived was never going to able to benefit from Trump's coattails. He lost Maine by 9 points, a significant reversal from his 3 point defeat in 2016. More importantly Collins centrist credibility had been massively damaged, Morning Consult polls consistently showed her as "the least popular Senator in America", and her vote to conform Kavanaugh made her a massive Democrat target and ensured that money and other resources would flow to Maine to defeat her. Finally the Democrats got the candidate they wanted, the well regarded state House Speaker Sara Gideon.

For much of the last two years I still considered Collins favourite but as 2020 dragged on things really seemed to be slipping away. Her attempt to balance her centrism with not alienating the Trump base seemed to be pleasing no one and her public agonising over the compromises she had made in the era of Trump had made her something of a laughing stock. As election day approached the consensus was that Collins was finished and while I still thought she might just squeeze home by a narrow margin the idea that she would win a very comfortable 9 points seemed absolutely absurd. So what on earth happened? In an era where split voting at federal level is nearly dead how did it happen on such a scale here?

Obviously there is no one factor. Firstly 24 years of work and considerable success in delivering funds counts for quite a lot, as does her seniority and potential to deliver more. Contrary to my first impressions the Coney Barrett nomination also gave her the chance to showcase her independence and fairness. Yes it reminded people of Kavanaugh but in one of her best moments in the debates she pointed to her votes for Sotomayer and Kagan as proof that she fairly evaluates judges put up by either party. She then challenged Gideon as to how she would have voted on the nomination of John Roberts, Gideon obfuscated and Collins gleefully replied something like "She won't answer the question because we all know that she will vote party line on everything". However after reading everything I could find online about this race it seems pretty clear what the overriding theme of this campaign was.

The election that was actually taking place in Maine was a very different one to the one that existed on the minds of pundits and outside observers. First things first, Maine is a parochial place, especially outside of Portland. There are cultural differences that set it apart from the rest of New England and a long standing suspicion of outsiders, those from "far away" is common. It is in this environment that Collins has crafted her image, not just a native Mainer but one with a deep understanding of the state's unique identity. In contrast to this Gideon's major weakness was that she is not a native Mainer and has only lived in the state for a mere 16 years. Even in Maine this really shouldn't have been a fatal flaw but it was an opening that Collins exploited and Gideon failed to defend adequately. In many ways Gideon's campaign made it worse, the excessive amount of out of state money and out of state volunteers added to the perception of outsiders interfering in Maine's affairs. Now of course Collins got loads of money from out of state but there was far less publicity about it.

All this set up for a quite brilliant campaign from Collins and her team where they framed this race in very simple terms. Collins was the local girl, she loves Maine and always delivers, she understand the state and is "one of us". In contrast Gideon was the stooge of a bunch of rich out of state folks that was smearing our girl. The constant mocking of Collins for her expressions of "concern" and "disappointment" about Trump were portrayed as nasty personal attacks on someone trying to find balance in a difficult situation. The whole campaign was basically say, this is Susan, she is one of us, you know Susan, you know what the Gideon campaign is saying is simply not true. Then in the final weeks of the campaign Collins played her Ace in the Hole, the card she had kept secret for nearly a year, an endorsement that really mattered. Before he retired last year Bill Green had been a TV personality in Maine for nearly 50 years, first as a sports broadcaster and then as a features reporter mostly covering much of Maine's outdoor way of life. Over the years he had become a much loved figure, seen as a personification of the idealised version of Maine. A registered Democrat, but publicly apolitical, he is one of the few kinds of endorsements that still count for much. He had known Collins for many years through his sister who had worked for her back in the 1990s. He apparently bumped into Collins last year and said if she wanted his endorsement she need only ask. When she eventually took him up on the offer he gave more than an endorsement, he appeared in a string of ads that re-enforced the central theme of the Collins campaign. It was simple but highly effective, a trusted source validating everything that Collins had said and while not mentioning Gideon by name calling out the shameful smear campaign against Collins.

When it comes down to it I am not sure what Gideon could have done all that much different to counter this. Like the national pundits and party operatives she underestimated Collins remaining cross party appeal and while her negative campaign was ineffective I doubt that a more enlightened and positive campaign would have done any better. Like in the rest of America this was a campaign fought on a culture war footing, it is just that it was a very different culture war.

A few ads below just to demonstrate the flavour of Collins campaign

[conservativeestimate]

Excellent analysis as ever, Richard Allen.

[Foggy]

My principal correspondents in Maine are a pair of "MassHoles" from south of Portland who most likely blindly voted Democrat downballot without learning the candidates' names or platforms, but I know enough about the rest of the state to realise that their viewpoint will be somewhat skewed from the statewide average.

I'd never heard of Bill Green and I doubt his endorsement meant anything to people who only moved there in early 2014. I think with that additional detail, Richard has quite brilliantly uncovered the reason Collins won as comfortably as as she did against what the polls had been indicating, and in defiance of the New England regional trend.

[But please, that liberal Supreme Court Justice she voted for, Sonia, is Hispanic rather than Germanic!]