Kentucky

[thinwhiteduke]

Final certified results:

Trump 1,326,646 (62.1%)
Biden 772,474 (36.2%)

[curiousliberal]

Nov 12, 2020 1:36:21 GMT thinwhiteduke said:

McConnell carried Elliot County for the first time in his several re-election campaigns.

$90 million of grift and still McGrath lost to him by 19.5%, worse than Alison Lundergran Grimes' 15.4%  loss in the 2014 Republican wave election. Schumer should be embarrassed and the state party is probably furious they didn't get a better candidate near the top of the ticket given the carnage that happened downballot this year. Republicans had a net gain of 14 in the state house and 2 in the state senate, going from 61-39 to 75-25 and 28-10 to 30-8 respectively. A supermajority only requires 60% of the seats in each chamber so they already had that but ensuring this holds is now much easier.

Gov. Andy Beshear isn't completely doomed but is probably on course to lose reelection in 2023.

[Merseymike]

Nov 24, 2020 11:23:49 GMT curiousliberal said:

Nov 12, 2020 1:36:21 GMT thinwhiteduke said:

McConnell carried Elliot County for the first time in his several re-election campaigns.

$90 million of grift and still McGrath lost to him by 19.5%, worse than Alison Lundergran Grimes' 15.4%  loss in the 2014 Republican wave election. Schumer should be embarrassed and the state party is probably furious they didn't get a better candidate near the top of the ticket given the carnage that happened downballot this year. Republicans had a net gain of 14 in the state house and 2 in the state senate, going from 61-39 to 75-25 and 28-10 to 30-8 respectively. A supermajority only requires 60% of the seats in each chamber so they already had that but ensuring this holds is now much easier.

Gov. Andy Beshear isn't completely doomed but is probably on course to lose reelection in 2023.

Does this not suggest that the state is simply becoming both more Republican and responded to Trump's populist message?

[curiousliberal]

Nov 24, 2020 12:19:11 GMT Merseymike said:

Nov 24, 2020 11:23:49 GMT curiousliberal said:

$90 million of grift and still McGrath lost to him by 19.5%, worse than Alison Lundergran Grimes' 15.4%  loss in the 2014 Republican wave election. Schumer should be embarrassed and the state party is probably furious they didn't get a better candidate near the top of the ticket given the carnage that happened downballot this year. Republicans had a net gain of 14 in the state house and 2 in the state senate, going from 61-39 to 75-25 and 28-10 to 30-8 respectively. A supermajority only requires 60% of the seats in each chamber so they already had that but ensuring this holds is now much easier.

Gov. Andy Beshear isn't completely doomed but is probably on course to lose reelection in 2023.

Does this not suggest that the state is simply becoming both more Republican and responded to Trump's populist message?

KY swung Democratic presidentially. Polarisation meant state legislative Democrats had a harder time overperforming the top of the ticket (hence the carnage), but a high-profile, well-fought Senate race might have given them some respite by shifting the focus of the polarisation some distance away from the presidential contest and towards the Senate one. I suspect a lot of ancestral Democrats would have found it easier to back their local representative of the Rocky Adkins/Joe Biden party than the Joe Biden/McGrath party.

[matureleft]

Both parties love candidates with a military background. I'm not sure that the evidence suggests that voters share that enthusiasm. Obviously it must depend a little on the profile and distinction of the person involved. But seemingly they often make fairly poor candidates. Perhaps that's because they often haven't been much involved in the party before selection and are star recruits? Or they may simply lack basic campaigning skills?

[The Bishop]

Nov 24, 2020 11:23:49 GMT curiousliberal said:

Nov 12, 2020 1:36:21 GMT thinwhiteduke said:

McConnell carried Elliot County for the first time in his several re-election campaigns.

$90 million of grift and still McGrath lost to him by 19.5%, worse than Alison Lundergran Grimes' 15.4%  loss in the 2014 Republican wave election. Schumer should be embarrassed and the state party is probably furious they didn't get a better candidate near the top of the ticket given the carnage that happened downballot this year. Republicans had a net gain of 14 in the state house and 2 in the state senate, going from 61-39 to 75-25 and 28-10 to 30-8 respectively. A supermajority only requires 60% of the seats in each chamber so they already had that but ensuring this holds is now much easier.

Gov. Andy Beshear isn't completely doomed but is probably on course to lose reelection in 2023.

He should be embarrassed about a great many things tbh.

[Merseymike]

Nov 24, 2020 13:18:13 GMT matureleft said:

Both parties love candidates with a military background. I'm not sure that the evidence suggests that voters share that enthusiasm. Obviously it must depend a little on the profile and distinction of the person involved. But seemingly they often make fairly poor candidates. Perhaps that's because they often haven't been much involved in the party before selection and are star recruits? Or they may simply lack basic campaigning skills?

Isn't that often the case here as well?

[Richard Allen]

Nov 24, 2020 13:32:49 GMT The Bishop said:

Nov 24, 2020 11:23:49 GMT curiousliberal said:

$90 million of grift and still McGrath lost to him by 19.5%, worse than Alison Lundergran Grimes' 15.4%  loss in the 2014 Republican wave election. Schumer should be embarrassed and the state party is probably furious they didn't get a better candidate near the top of the ticket given the carnage that happened downballot this year. Republicans had a net gain of 14 in the state house and 2 in the state senate, going from 61-39 to 75-25 and 28-10 to 30-8 respectively. A supermajority only requires 60% of the seats in each chamber so they already had that but ensuring this holds is now much easier.

Gov. Andy Beshear isn't completely doomed but is probably on course to lose reelection in 2023.

He should be embarrassed about a great many things tbh.

Until Senate Democrats get rid of the useless tosser they deserve to remain in the minority. He has had three elections* where he has been in charge and Senate Democrats have under performed in all of them. He always pulls the same trick of picking candidates who he likes and directing so much money to them, and actively stopping their opponents raising money, that they easily win their primaries. The trouble is that he picks candidates who play well with the national party but not necessarily in their own state. Add in his woeful performances in the chamber and utter spinelessness in the face of McConnell's hard line tactics and his colleagues should have run out of patience with him by now.

* Harry Reid was still Minority Leader prior to the 2016 elections but everyone knew Schumer was the successor and he was basically running the show.

[matureleft]

Nov 24, 2020 14:09:28 GMT Merseymike said:

Nov 24, 2020 13:18:13 GMT matureleft said:

Both parties love candidates with a military background. I'm not sure that the evidence suggests that voters share that enthusiasm. Obviously it must depend a little on the profile and distinction of the person involved. But seemingly they often make fairly poor candidates. Perhaps that's because they often haven't been much involved in the party before selection and are star recruits? Or they may simply lack basic campaigning skills?

Isn't that often the case here as well?

ahem! I think that you may have at least one personal exception to that rule?! (Although you did say "often").

[jamie]

Nov 24, 2020 15:00:55 GMT Richard Allen said:

Until Senate Democrats get rid of the useless tosser they deserve to remain in the minority. He has had three elections* where he has been in charge and Senate Democrats have under performed in all of them. He always pulls the same trick of picking candidates who he likes and directing so much money to them, and actively stopping their opponents raising money, that they easily win their primaries. The trouble is that he picks candidates who play well with the national party but not necessarily in their own state. Add in his woeful performances in the chamber and utter spinelessness in the face of McConnell's hard line tactics and his colleagues should have run out of patience with him by now.

He also tells them that they need to spend almost all their time in their basement or flying around the country holding fundraisers, and if they’re not willing to do that then they can piss off. This may partly explain how they seem to end up with such generic and uninspiring candidates that are unable to outperform the fundamentals enough to actually win. 

[philipgraves]

Nov 24, 2020 15:00:55 GMT Richard Allen said:

Nov 24, 2020 13:32:49 GMT The Bishop said:

He should be embarrassed about a great many things tbh.

Until Senate Democrats get rid of the useless tosser they deserve to remain in the minority. He has had three elections* where he has been in charge and Senate Democrats have under performed in all of them. He always pulls the same trick of picking candidates who he likes and directing so much money to them, and actively stopping their opponents raising money, that they easily win their primaries. The trouble is that he picks candidates who play well with the national party but not necessarily in their own state. Add in his woeful performances in the chamber and utter spinelessness in the face of McConnell's hard line tactics and his colleagues should have run out of patience with him by now.

* Harry Reid was still Minority Leader prior to the 2016 elections but everyone knew Schumer was the successor and he was basically running the show.

It's even crazier how Pelosi stays around as the Democrats sail towards destruction in the house races in 2022 although I was pleased to see Elissa Slotkin who narrowly held her Michigan district call for her to go in addition to the actual left. I actually think they have a better chance of picking up the Senate in 2022 despite Schumer if that makes sense.

[Richard Allen]

Nov 27, 2020 18:21:53 GMT philipgraves said:

Nov 24, 2020 15:00:55 GMT Richard Allen said:

Until Senate Democrats get rid of the useless tosser they deserve to remain in the minority. He has had three elections* where he has been in charge and Senate Democrats have under performed in all of them. He always pulls the same trick of picking candidates who he likes and directing so much money to them, and actively stopping their opponents raising money, that they easily win their primaries. The trouble is that he picks candidates who play well with the national party but not necessarily in their own state. Add in his woeful performances in the chamber and utter spinelessness in the face of McConnell's hard line tactics and his colleagues should have run out of patience with him by now.

* Harry Reid was still Minority Leader prior to the 2016 elections but everyone knew Schumer was the successor and he was basically running the show.

It's even crazier how Pelosi stays around as the Democrats sail towards destruction in the house races in 2022 although I was pleased to see Elissa Slotkin who narrowly held her Michigan district call for her to go in addition to the actual left. I actually think they have a better chance of picking up the Senate in 2022 despite Schumer if that makes sense.

The thing is, other than being an electoral liability, Pelosi is actually good at what she does and with a small majority her talents are needed more than ever. To have retained such broad support across such an ideologically divided caucus for nearly two decades is a massively underrated achievement and I don't think any of her detractors would have come close to managing it. As for 2022, the Democrats are almost certainly going to lose the House anyway so it makes little sense to burden a new leader with that. Pelosi staying as Speaker while announcing that she won't seek re-election in 2022 is probably the best option in the circumstances.