jamie
Forum Regular
Posts: 4,969 
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Post by jamie on Nov 1, 2020 12:03:45 GMT
This may end up being the Iowa version of the Biden +17 poll in Wisconsin from a few days ago. Selzer may be right, but it would require every other reputable poll both nationally and on the state level to be very wrong. I’m glad she’s not herding, but when there’s so much evidence against it I find it hard to believe.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Nov 1, 2020 13:52:16 GMT
For those interested in trading and betting on matters of psephology, backing a Biden win in Iowa about now is a good idea. Trump might win Iowa, he might win by the kind of margin that the Selzer poll suggests, he might win the election. The point is that the mass reaction of the punters to polls of this kind (and, separately, major scandals breaking and such like) create a window of value.
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Iowa
Nov 1, 2020 15:14:30 GMT
jamie likes this
Post by mrhell on Nov 1, 2020 15:14:30 GMT
For those interested in trading and betting on matters of psephology, backing a Biden win in Iowa about now is a good idea. Trump might win Iowa, he might win by the kind of margin that the Selzer poll suggests, he might win the election. The point is that the mass reaction of the punters to polls of this kind (and, separately, major scandals breaking and such like) create a window of value.
In a normal election this might make sense but Trump has been hugely over bet and this is reflected in the state markets as well. On the Betfair to be President market Trump has been between 1.88/1 and 2/1 for over a week. The polls aren't changing anything substantially. Biden's odds have gone out in Iowa but nothing like they would if people were using the Selzer poll. Unless something drastic happens I think nothing will really change until the results come in.
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AJS
Top Poster
Posts: 22,677
Member is Online
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Post by AJS on Nov 1, 2020 15:28:06 GMT
For those interested in trading and betting on matters of psephology, backing a Biden win in Iowa about now is a good idea. Trump might win Iowa, he might win by the kind of margin that the Selzer poll suggests, he might win the election. The point is that the mass reaction of the punters to polls of this kind (and, separately, major scandals breaking and such like) create a window of value. It would be if I thought Biden had a good chance of winning the state. It's very unlikely IMO. |
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,451
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Iowa
Nov 3, 2020 1:52:55 GMT
Post by nelson on Nov 3, 2020 1:52:55 GMT
Another Senate candidate outpolling Biden in a DfP poll (like Espy in their MS poll).
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
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Post by johng on Nov 4, 2020 12:39:15 GMT
And Ann Selzer maintains her polling prestige. She had Trump +7 when it's currently +8. Last votes should lean Biden, but it'll be close to +7 no matter what.
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Iowa
Nov 4, 2020 13:13:36 GMT
Post by relique on Nov 4, 2020 13:13:36 GMT
And Ann Selzer maintains her polling prestige. She had Trump +7 when it's currently +8. Last votes should lean Biden, but it'll be close to +7 no matter what. She's not maintaining ! She's becoming a god-like figure to all pollsters who should probably just dissolve and become part of the new religion: Selzerism. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Nov 8, 2020 12:32:17 GMT
One of the most disappointing Democrat results especially as most of the polls had Greenfield leading. Hard to not conclude that it is going the way of Missouri and becoming a red state
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Richard Allen
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Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 17,078
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 8, 2020 20:47:34 GMT
One of the most disappointing Democrat results especially as most of the polls had Greenfield leading. Hard to not conclude that it is going the way of Missouri and becoming a red state The Democrats are just getting killed in farm country throughout the region. Just look at rural Minnesota and Wisconsin; the trend in Iowa shouldn't surprise anyone. |
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Iowa
Nov 10, 2020 16:32:03 GMT
via mobile
Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 10, 2020 16:32:03 GMT
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) leads Rita Hart (D), by 34 votes in Iowa-2. (Dave Loebsack's district).
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Iowa
Nov 10, 2020 16:36:56 GMT
Post by curiousliberal on Nov 10, 2020 16:36:56 GMT
One of the most disappointing Democrat results especially as most of the polls had Greenfield leading. Hard to not conclude that it is going the way of Missouri and becoming a red state The Democrats are just getting killed in farm country throughout the region. Just look at rural Minnesota and Wisconsin; the trend in Iowa shouldn't surprise anyone. They seem to be getting better overperformances downballot (Greenfield's running ahead of Biden, unlike most Senate candidates). That's small comfort given the scale of the blowout and the way these trends tend to go, but it's not nothing. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Dec 1, 2020 12:24:10 GMT
Final certified results:
Trump 897,672 (53.1%)
Biden 759,061 (44.9%)
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