Richard Allen
Non-Aligned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 17,078
|
Post by Richard Allen on Oct 12, 2020 18:52:08 GMT
From what I can gather (relatives went to Uni in Des Moines and have friends who are still there) Iowa farmers got hit particularly hard by Chinese agricultural sanctions due to the types of crops generally grown there - there is apparently some resentment toward Trump in some rural areas which, although still having Trump well ahead, are way down on where he was in 2016. I suspect Iowa may be a surprise Biden win and move a bit further and faster toward Dems than other swing states... China did of course specifically target crops grown in Iowa due to the political importance of the state. |
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 17,690
|
Iowa
Oct 14, 2020 5:52:36 GMT
via mobile
Post by neilm on Oct 14, 2020 5:52:36 GMT
What noises has Biden been making about subsidies for bio fuel? That may push some rural voters toward him.
|
|
|
|
Iowa
Oct 15, 2020 17:51:03 GMT
via mobile
Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 15, 2020 17:51:03 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by mrhell on Oct 15, 2020 18:52:12 GMT
This appears to show the seat reverting to its normal results now King lost the primary.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630 
|
Iowa
Oct 21, 2020 0:47:06 GMT
Post by johng on Oct 21, 2020 0:47:06 GMT
Been fairly quiet on polling here since that Yougov one almost two weeks ago. Siena/NYT will be polling this week which should be interesting - though with their high undecided caveat.
(Edit: timmullen1 points out there's a Monmouth poll due today too. Double the fun! Very strangely, they both polled Iowa last month releasing data on the same day - September 23rd. The NYT/Siena headline figures were Biden +3 and Greenfield +2. Monmouth's headline figures were Trump +3 and Greenfield +3 on high turnout. Will be interesting to see any meaningful swings). Two partisan polls for different groups released this week. Their results were quite interesting though. It's quite strange to see their results so similar though. Basically it looks like a real toss-up with the senate race tilting to Greenfield. Ernst last led in a senate poll back in early September. It strange to think she was once thought of as such a formidable candidate. Firstly, Insider Advantage (538 B-) for conservative group the Center For American Greatness. It was conducted from 18-19/10. President Biden - 45% Trump - 45% Senate Greenfield (D) - 48% Ernst (R) (INC) - 43% Secondly, Data for Progress (538 B-) who polls for woke left-wing groups. It was conducted from 8-11/10. President Trump - 48% Biden - 47% Senate Greenfield (D) - 47% Ernst (R) (INC) - 43% |
|
|
|
Post by timmullen1 on Oct 21, 2020 1:14:49 GMT
There’s a Monmouth University (538 A+) Iowa poll out today (Wednesday) as well.
|
|
Richard Allen
Non-Aligned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 17,078
|
Iowa
Oct 21, 2020 13:26:24 GMT
Post by Richard Allen on Oct 21, 2020 13:26:24 GMT
There’s a Monmouth University (538 A+) Iowa poll out today (Wednesday) as well. And a NYT / Siena College poll tomorrow. |
|
|
|
Post by timmullen1 on Oct 21, 2020 13:27:40 GMT
There’s a Monmouth University (538 A+) Iowa poll out today (Wednesday) as well. And a NYT / Siena College poll tomorrow. I think johng had mentioned that in his original post, which was why I just added the Monmouth. |
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
|
Post by johng on Oct 21, 2020 15:12:09 GMT
Monmouth's poll has been released. Changes based on their September poll. www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_ia_102120/ High turnout / low turnout President Biden - 50% (+4) / 51% (+5) Trump - 47% (-2) / 46% (-3) Senate Greenfield (D) - 49% (-) / 51% (+3) Ernst (R) (INC) - 47% (+1) / 45% (-2) Nice number for Biden, but their September poll wasn't the best for him. Still in toss-up territory.
Very unusual to see the low turnout number better for Biden than the high turnout one. Monmouth's take: 'Biden’s lead is wider in the lower turnout scenario because of the large number of Democratic ballots that have already been cast. Over one-third (37%) of registered voters say they have already returned their ballots. The overwhelming majority of these votes have gone to Biden (71%) rather than Trump (28%). If turnout ends up being low at this point, it would be due mainly to Republican-leaning Election Day voters deciding to stay home'.
|
|
|
|
Post by timmullen1 on Oct 21, 2020 17:29:12 GMT
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 7,081
|
Iowa
Oct 21, 2020 17:36:53 GMT
via mobile
Post by iain on Oct 21, 2020 17:36:53 GMT
Must be the first poll in quite a while with Ernst outperforming Trump?
|
|
|
|
Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 21, 2020 17:41:57 GMT
A lot of undecideds at this late date |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 7,081
|
Iowa
Oct 21, 2020 18:06:02 GMT
via mobile
Post by iain on Oct 21, 2020 18:06:02 GMT
A lot of undecideds at this late date NYT/Siena always have quite a lot of undecideds |
|
|
|
Post by adlai52 on Oct 21, 2020 18:43:07 GMT
A lot of undecideds at this late date NYT/Siena always have quite a lot of undecideds Suspect both Biden and Greenfield are relying on a lot of ‘soft’ supporters here, NYT/Siena not pushing the undecideds probably doesn’t help either - although surprised to see Biden leading and Greenfield behind, as she has been out polling Biden consistently here. It’s a state that could see a big swing, but suspect it’s one of the last Trump states in the Midwest to flip. |
|
|
|
Iowa
Oct 21, 2020 18:50:52 GMT
via mobile
jamie likes this
Post by curiousliberal on Oct 21, 2020 18:50:52 GMT
NYT/Siena always have quite a lot of undecideds Suspect both Biden and Greenfield are relying on a lot of ‘soft’ supporters here, NYT/Siena not pushing the undecideds probably doesn’t help either - although surprised to see Biden leading and Greenfield behind, as she has been out polling Biden consistently here. It’s a state that could see a big swing, but suspect it’s one of the last Trump states in the Midwest to flip. Not to delve too deeply into the crosstabs, but Greenfield's favourability numbers are significantly better than Ernst’s and the undecided voters in the Senate race lean towards Biden. I’d say this poll doesn’t run counter to the conventional wisdom that Greenfield is narrowly ahead. |
|
|
|
Iowa
Oct 21, 2020 20:12:09 GMT
Post by MacShimidh on Oct 21, 2020 20:12:09 GMT
For me this is the hardest state of all to call this year, for both the presidency and the Senate. Wouldn't be surprised if either side clinched it by a few thousand votes.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
|
Post by johng on Oct 21, 2020 23:34:30 GMT
It's been a very strange day in Iowa. No high quality polls for a while and three reputable ones in one day. Emerson (538 A-) have also released one.
President
Biden - 48%
Trump - 48%
Senate
Greenfield (D) - 46%
Ernst (R) (INC) - 51%
Do note though that some people are unhappy that Emerson are now using MTurk and it has produced some odd numbers this season.
So no we are in a pretty odd position. Biden has polled pretty well today considering this is Iowa. He's either +3/+5, +3 or even. Greenfield's polls today are a bit worse though. Monmouth has her +2/+6, but in both other reputable pollster she was running behind Ernst by -1 and -5. This is despite the fact she has been leading in almost all polls for the last month.
Honestly though, I have a feeling the presidential and senatorial candidates are going to run very closely. Trump and Ernst, and Biden and Greenfield will be within a point of each other.
Both are in toss-up territory, but I'd say today's polls do give the edge to the Democrats.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
|
Iowa
Oct 26, 2020 19:23:21 GMT
Post by johng on Oct 26, 2020 19:23:21 GMT
Early votes do net tell us who will win the election. You have to admit though that they are looking good for the Dems in Iowa.
The figures released today show that 751,386 mail ballots have been returned and accepted. Another 100,000 requested one.
Dems - 375,406
GOP - 236,740
Other - 2,893
Independent - 136,347
That means the Democrats are 138,666 above the GOP so far. Comparing that to previous elections, in 2012 the Dems ended up +68k and in 2016 +42k.
In Iowa's 1st, the Democrats are +46607 over the GOP.
In Iowa's 2ns, the Democrats are +47358 over the GOP.
In Iowa's 3rd, the Democrats are +45602 over the GOP.
In Iowa's 4th, the Republicans are +901 over the Dems.
Mail voting is probably going to be about 50% of the total vote, so that's a big numerical advantage going into election day.
|
|
|
|
Iowa
Oct 26, 2020 19:30:03 GMT
via mobile
johng likes this
Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 26, 2020 19:30:03 GMT
Early votes do net tell us who will win the election. You have to admit though that they are looking good for the Dems in Iowa. The figures released today show that 751,386 mail ballots have been returned and accepted. Another 100,000 requested one. Dems - 375,406 GOP - 236,740 Other - 2,893 Independent - 136,347 That means the Democrats are 138,666 above the GOP so far. Comparing that to previous elections, in 2012 the Dems ended up +68k and in 2016 +42k. In Iowa's 1st, the Democrats are +46607 over the GOP. In Iowa's 2ns, the Democrats are +47358 over the GOP. In Iowa's 3rd, the Democrats are +45602 over the GOP. In Iowa's 4th, the Republicans are +901 over the Dems. Mail voting is probably going to be about 50% of the total vote, so that's a big numerical advantage going into election day. Isn't this just a reflection of Democrats' advantage in party ID in a state that's only voted Republican twice since 1984? |
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
|
Post by johng on Oct 26, 2020 20:17:36 GMT
Fair point.
Running three times better in 2020 than 2016 and two times 2012 is a strong sign though. I know I'd rather be Biden than Trump relying on that election day surge.
The Monmouth poll above shows it too. Dems will actually do better if turnout is low due to having so many votes banked.
|
|
