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Iowa
Apr 18, 2020 8:42:59 GMT
Post by Admin Twaddleford on Apr 18, 2020 8:42:59 GMT
6 electoral college votes
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Iowa
Aug 5, 2020 15:36:59 GMT
Post by thinwhiteduke on Aug 5, 2020 15:36:59 GMT
Iowa Presidential (Monmouth):
Trump 48%
Biden 45%
Iowa Senate (Monmouth):
Joni Ernst (R) 48%
Theresa Greenfield (D) 45%
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Iowa
Aug 5, 2020 16:12:48 GMT
Post by rivers10 on Aug 5, 2020 16:12:48 GMT
One of the few states that's actually trending Republican, I'll admit if he doesn't win here Trump has no chance, as is I think Trump will win by over 10 points here
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johng
Labour
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Iowa
Aug 5, 2020 16:24:48 GMT
Post by johng on Aug 5, 2020 16:24:48 GMT
Tough one. The state should be more Republican than it is based on demographics.
But...
Polls are pretty much even.
The Dems have a very strong challenge in the Senate election this year with the 538 polling average showing the Dems will take the senate seat.
In 2016, Trump was helped by the very strong Republican senate result.
The Dems won three of the four congressional districts in 2018 after losing 3-1 in 2016 and drawing 2-2 in 2014.
I certainly wouldn't like to call it, but I highly doubt Trump will win by 10 points this time even if he wins the EC nationally.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 26,692
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Iowa
Aug 8, 2020 9:41:55 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Aug 8, 2020 9:41:55 GMT
Iowa Presidential (Monmouth): Trump 48% Biden 45% Iowa Senate (Monmouth): Joni Ernst (R) 48% Theresa Greenfield (D) 45% Identical results in both contests - that must be fairly unusual? |
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nelson
Non-Aligned
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Post by nelson on Sept 20, 2020 10:35:41 GMT
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Richard Allen
Non-Aligned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 17,094
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Iowa
Sept 20, 2020 10:43:58 GMT
Post by Richard Allen on Sept 20, 2020 10:43:58 GMT
Ernst is likely to run a little bit behind Trump but if he wins by 5 points or more I think he will probably drag her over the line.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 26,692
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 20, 2020 11:31:15 GMT
"NEW IOW POLL" - the Isle of Wight is voting in these elections??  (wouldn't mind so much, but its only a single letter) |
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finsobruce
Labour
Five people have watched this in the last hour.
Posts: 31,169
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 20, 2020 13:02:39 GMT
"NEW IOW POLL" - the Isle of Wight is voting in these elections?? (wouldn't mind so much, but its only a single letter) Is there much herding going on in Cowes? |
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jamie
Forum Regular
Posts: 4,969
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Iowa
Sept 20, 2020 14:28:52 GMT
Post by jamie on Sept 20, 2020 14:28:52 GMT
Ernst is a good example of the hollowing out of incumbency. She was regarded as a good candidate in 2014 and hasn’t had any scandals yet she’s even/slightly underperforming an unpopular Republican president against a fairly anonymous Democratic opponent.
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 20, 2020 14:36:46 GMT
"NEW IOW POLL" - the Isle of Wight is voting in these elections?? (wouldn't mind so much, but its only a single letter) And if you are going to abbreviate the state names, why not go with the standard two-letter abbreviation, which everyone who might care about state-level polling is familiar with? |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 8,404
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 20, 2020 14:52:20 GMT
"NEW IOW POLL" - the Isle of Wight is voting in these elections?? (wouldn't mind so much, but its only a single letter) Is there much herding going on in Cowes? I'm sure they'll Ryde it out. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 22, 2020 11:26:09 GMT
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nelson
Non-Aligned
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Post by nelson on Sept 22, 2020 14:32:54 GMT
The first time Trump isn't leading Biden in the IA Selzer poll. |
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johng
Labour
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Iowa
Sept 22, 2020 16:06:31 GMT
Post by johng on Sept 22, 2020 16:06:31 GMT
With Ernst consistently running a few points behind Trump, this looks like it could be a good pick-up for the Dems in the senate even if Trump wins by a point or two. Three House seats to defend as well.
For that reason alone they should pump serious money in.
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 1, 2020 21:47:48 GMT
With Ernst consistently running a few points behind Trump, this looks like it could be a good pick-up for the Dems in the senate even if Trump wins by a point or two. Three House seats to defend as well. For that reason alone they should pump serious money in. The University of Virginia Center for Politics Crystal Ball has moved the presidential race from Leans Republican to Toss Up, and Abby Finkenauer in the 1st Congressional District from Toss Up to Lean Democratic. |
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Iowa
Oct 2, 2020 0:32:47 GMT
Post by curiousliberal on Oct 2, 2020 0:32:47 GMT
This is probably an outlier, but a RABA Research poll from September 23-26 has Biden up 48-46 and (more importantly) Greenfield leading 51-39. That much split-ticketing is simply not in the cards but if it's even half as much (the MoE is 4%), then Ernst is in deep trouble.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 12, 2020 9:50:12 GMT
Yougov had a poll out for Iowa yesterday. It's fair to say their polls have been fairly middle of the road when it comes to polling numbers for both Dems and GOP.
President
Biden - 49%
Trump - 49%
Senate
Greenfield (D) - 47%
Ernst (R) (INC) - 43%
Another pretty decent poll for Greenfield with her four points ahead of the GOP incumbent. Another bad poll for Ernst too showing her running 6 points behind Trump.
I don't think there will be that much vote splitting, but Greenfield seems to be consistently doing better than Ernst. You have to go all the way back to early August to see Ernst ahead with a relatively decent (538 C or above) pollster.
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Iowa
Oct 12, 2020 14:39:36 GMT
Post by bigfatron on Oct 12, 2020 14:39:36 GMT
From what I can gather (relatives went to Uni in Des Moines and have friends who are still there) Iowa farmers got hit particularly hard by Chinese agricultural sanctions due to the types of crops generally grown there - there is apparently some resentment toward Trump in some rural areas which, although still having Trump well ahead, are way down on where he was in 2016. I suspect Iowa may be a surprise Biden win and move a bit further and faster toward Dems than other swing states...
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jamie
Forum Regular
Posts: 4,969
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Post by jamie on Oct 12, 2020 18:25:45 GMT
From what I can gather (relatives went to Uni in Des Moines and have friends who are still there) Iowa farmers got hit particularly hard by Chinese agricultural sanctions due to the types of crops generally grown there - there is apparently some resentment toward Trump in some rural areas which, although still having Trump well ahead, are way down on where he was in 2016. I suspect Iowa may be a surprise Biden win and move a bit further and faster toward Dems than other swing states... There does seem to be more of a swing towards Biden in Iowa than nationally, but that would be expected based on its demographics and large number of Obama/Trump voters. The trade war could be having an impact, but probably not enough to be very noticeable. Certainly, we aren’t remotely going to see a repeat of 1988! |
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