Georgia

[curiousliberal]

Oct 14, 2020 21:50:47 GMT neilm said:

The only time he will have 'officially surged into the lead' is if he officially wins.

He could surge into the lead on election night but not get 50% and then go onto lose the runoff election.

This would be the second time that happened for Jon Ossoff.

[curiousliberal]

Oct 14, 2020 22:16:32 GMT David Boothroyd said:

But it must be said that some of the Democrats who won in Georgia were not exactly in sympathy with the party nationally. Sam Nunn retained his affiliation but was probably ruled out of being Gore or Kerry's Vice Presidential pick because the base considered him a 'DINO'. Zell Miller was plainly allied to the Republicans in national politics and made the keynote speech at the 2004 Republican Convention.

Max Cleland wasn't so out-of-kilter, though. He only lost in 2002 and went onto serve in a federal commission in the Obama admin, but his narrow defeat seems to have been the bookend to his electoral career. Despite the respectable margin, it must have felt rather ugly to lose like that; it was arguably precipitated by this effective and rather nasty ad:

[johng]

Nate Silver's analysis of that Quinnipiac poll showing Biden +7.

Then came the Quinnipiac poll. What should you make of a poll that has one candidate 7 points ahead when everybody else has the race tied, or virtually so? Well, you should … throw it in the polling average. Generally speaking, it’s good when high-quality pollsters such as Quinnipiac are willing to deviate from the consensus; it means they’re not herding toward what everybody else says.

At the same time, Quinnipiac has produced perhaps the best set of numbers for Biden of any major pollster. Another recent release of Quinnipiac polls had Biden ahead by 11 points in Florida, 13 points in Pennsylvania and 5 points in Iowa, far better than the FiveThirtyEight averages in each state.

I’m not one to play poll doctor and dive into the crosstabs and declare whether a particular firm’s approach is right or wrong. Unless there’s something egregious, I think the right approach is to trust the process of averaging the polls. At the same time, a 7-point lead coming from Quinnipiac doesn’t mean quite the same thing as it would from a pollster like, say, Monmouth University, which has tended to show results for Biden that are near to or slightly worse than the consensus. (Monmouth’s most recent Georgia poll — taken before the debate — had shown Trump slightly ahead.)

fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-georgia-turn-blue/

[minionofmidas]

Oct 14, 2020 22:16:32 GMT David Boothroyd said:

But it must be said that some of the Democrats who won in Georgia were not exactly in sympathy with the party nationally. Sam Nunn retained his affiliation but was probably ruled out of being Gore or Kerry's Vice Presidential pick because the base considered him a 'DINO'. Zell Miller was plainly allied to the Republicans in national politics and made the keynote speech at the 2004 Republican Convention.

Zigzag Zell Miller didn't move that far right (again) until after his last election campaign, though.

[johng]

NYT/ Siena have a poll out today. Usual caveats of being 538 A+, but having lots of undecided voters. Pretty decent for Biden, I'd say. Senate races both going for run-offs.

My take is President= toss-up. Senate= lean GOP. Special Senate = toss-up.

President
Biden - 45%
Trump - 45%

Senate
Ossoff (D) - 43%
Perdue (R)(INC) - 43%

Senate Special
Other Senate
Warnock (D) - 32%
Collins (R) - 17%
Loeffler (R) (INC) - 23%
Lieberman (D) - 7%

[Richard Allen]

Oct 20, 2020 17:09:04 GMT johng said:

NYT/ Siena have a poll out today. Usual caveats of being 538 A+, but having lots of undecided voters. Pretty decent for Biden, I'd say. Senate races both going for run-offs.

My take is President= toss-up. Senate= lean GOP. Special Senate = toss-up.

President
Biden - 45%
Trump - 45%

Senate
Ossoff (D) - 43%
Perdue (R)(INC) - 43%

Senate Special
Other Senate
Warnock (D) - 32%
Collins (R) - 17%
Loeffler (R) (INC) - 23%
Lieberman (D) - 7%

A run off in the regular Senate election is still fairly unlikely. There is only Perdue, Ossoff and a Libertarian on the ballot.

[conservativeestimate]

Oct 20, 2020 17:09:04 GMT johng said:

NYT/ Siena have a poll out today. Usual caveats of being 538 A+, but having lots of undecided voters. Pretty decent for Biden, I'd say. Senate races both going for run-offs.

My take is President= toss-up. Senate= lean GOP. Special Senate = toss-up.

President
Biden - 45%
Trump - 45%

Senate
Ossoff (D) - 43%
Perdue (R)(INC) - 43%

Senate Special
Other Senate
Warnock (D) - 32%
Collins (R) - 17%
Loeffler (R) (INC) - 23%
Lieberman (D) - 7%

I have the presidential and regular Senate races as Tilt GOP. If Stacey Abrams couldn't win here, I think it'll be hard for Biden and Ossoff to surpass the 48% she got.

[johng]

Oct 20, 2020 17:18:28 GMT Richard Allen said:

Oct 20, 2020 17:09:04 GMT johng said:

NYT/ Siena have a poll out today. Usual caveats of being 538 A+, but having lots of undecided voters. Pretty decent for Biden, I'd say. Senate races both going for run-offs.

My take is President= toss-up. Senate= lean GOP. Special Senate = toss-up.

President
Biden - 45%
Trump - 45%

Senate
Ossoff (D) - 43%
Perdue (R)(INC) - 43%

Senate Special
Other Senate
Warnock (D) - 32%
Collins (R) - 17%
Loeffler (R) (INC) - 23%
Lieberman (D) - 7%

A run off in the regular Senate election is still fairly unlikely. There is only Perdue, Ossoff and a Libertarian on the ballot.

For the presidential race, if I had to choose, I'd say Trump will win. However, there've been too many polls where it's within one or two points either side to say this is anything other than a toss-up. Also, look at this poll's favourability ratings. Trump is -1 whilst Biden is +4. Hiliary's unfavourability rating sunk her with undecideds last time and that isn't going to be the case this time.

On the senate race, I think there's a very real possibility that it could be within a couple of points. Hazel, the libertarian, was on 4% and he's done well in a few polls. If it doesn't go to a run-off, the winner will be very close to 50. It still leans to Perdue though if it goes to run-off or not.

For the special senate race, I have persumed that Warnock will face Loeffler for it to be a toss-up. If it's Collins, it definitely tilts more to him than Warnock. Warnock's campaign has simply been very good and he's energised the Dem/ African-American base a lot. That's actually something which will help the other Dems too. In the run-off, I wouldn't be surprised if he outraises Jamie Harrison/any other senate 2020 candidate without great difficulty.

[CatholicLeft]

Oct 20, 2020 18:06:15 GMT johng said:

Oct 20, 2020 17:18:28 GMT Richard Allen said:

A run off in the regular Senate election is still fairly unlikely. There is only Perdue, Ossoff and a Libertarian on the ballot.

For the presidential race, if I had to choose, I'd say Trump will win. However, there've been too many polls where it's within one or two points either side to say this is anything other than a toss-up. Also, look at this poll's favourability ratings. Trump is -1 whilst Biden is +4. Hiliary's unfavourability rating sunk her with undecideds last time and that isn't going to be the case this time.

On the senate race, I think there's a very real possibility that it could be within a couple of points. Hazel, the libertarian, was on 4% and he's done well in a few polls. If it doesn't go to a run-off, the winner will be very close to 50. It still leans to Perdue though if it goes to run-off or not.

For the special senate race, I have persumed that Warnock will face Loeffler for it to be a toss-up. If it's Collins, it definitely tilts more to him than Warnock. Warnock's campaign has simply been very good and he's energised the Dem/ African-American base a lot. That's actually something which will help the other Dems too. In the run-off, I wouldn't be surprised if he outraises Jamie Harrison/any other senate 2020 candidate without great difficulty.

Run-offs rarely work out that way. If Joe Biden wins, especially if the Democrats take the Senate, the enthusiasm to turn out won't be there for them, but will be for the GOP. If President Trump is re-elected, then the Democratic base willimely be too depressed to turn-out. This is why I have never seen the Special Election as anything other than a GOP hold.

[johng]

Oct 20, 2020 21:07:23 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Run-offs rarely work out that way. If Joe Biden wins, especially if the Democrats take the Senate, the enthusiasm to turn out won't be thee for them, but will be for the GOP. If President Trump is re-elect Ed, then the Democratic base willimely be too depressed to turn-out. This is why I have never seen the Special Election as anything other than a GOP hold.

To be fair, there haven't been that many run-offs for major offices in Georgia.

And didn't the 2018 midterms sort of dispel the notion the Dems can only get turnout for the main day of a presidential election? OK, they didn't win any of the state-wide run-offs, but look at the results.

Barrow, the Dem SOS candidate, got 48.7% in the main election and 48.1% in the run-off. In some of the district elections, Dem candidates increased their percentages in the run-off.

I have a feeling Warnock has the ability to engage voters that would usually stay at home.

[nelson]

[CatholicLeft]

Oct 20, 2020 21:22:16 GMT johng said:

Oct 20, 2020 21:07:23 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Run-offs rarely work out that way. If Joe Biden wins, especially if the Democrats take the Senate, the enthusiasm to turn out won't be thee for them, but will be for the GOP. If President Trump is re-elect Ed, then the Democratic base willimely be too depressed to turn-out. This is why I have never seen the Special Election as anything other than a GOP hold.

To be fair, there haven't been that many run-offs for major offices in Georgia.

And didn't the 2018 midterms sort of dispel the notion the Dems can only get turnout for the main day of a presidential election? OK, they didn't win any of the state-wide run-offs, but look at the results.

Barrow, the Dem SOS candidate, got 48.7% in the main election and 48.1% in the run-off. In some of the district elections, Dem candidates increased their percentages in the run-off.

I have a feeling Warnock has the ability to engage voters that would usually stay at home.

My comment is more related to run-offs in general, not just Georgia.
If Raphael Warnock only just cracks 40% on election day, he will not win in the runoff. The African-American vote is somewhat more conservative outside of Atlanta and they are not overwhelmed by him. Remember, it took a long time for the Democratic Party to coalesce around hum, even when he led the Rayshard Brooks funeral.
Seriously, he is no MLK, no Jesse Jackson, not even an Al Sharpton.

[johng]

Yougov poll for CBS. Partly pre and partly post debate. Yougov's numbers are pretty middle of the road for both Trump and Biden.

Still looking like a real toss-up.

President
Biden - 49%
Trump - 49%

Senate
Perdue (R)(INC) - 47%
Ossoff (D) - 46%

No senate special numbers released.

[nelson]

[johng]

So it's now a week until election day.
Polls for Biden continue to look fairly strong amongst reputable and less reputable pollsters - though it's still a toss-up.

In the last 14 days, we've had:
Civiqs - Biden 51-46 (B+5)
University of Georgia - Biden 47-46 (B+1 (Even with fractions))
Yougov - 49-49 (Even)
Landmark - Trump 49-45 (T+4)
Opinion Insight - Biden 49-45 (B+4)
Morning Consult - 48-48 (Even)
GHYRG - Biden 51-44 (B+7)
Siena/NYT - 45-45 (Even)
Emerson - Trump 48-47 (T+1)
Survey USA - Biden 48-46 (B+2)
Quinnipiac - Biden 51-44 (B+7)
Data for Progress - 46-46 (Even)

Turnout has reached 71% of 2016's suggesting a high total turnout. Biden is campaigning there today which wouldn't be happening if they didn't think they could win.

[nelson]

Lieberman may end up spoiling Warnock's chances. 

[jamie]

I am... sceptical... that Warnock is actually at 48%.

[Bert]

Collectively, there could well be a lot of egg on a lot of faces by this time next week 10 days

[nelson]

Oct 27, 2020 18:14:16 GMT Bert said:

Collectively, there could well be a lot of egg on a lot of faces by this time next week 10 days

The question is which faces. It could go either way. 

[AJS]

In 1992 the Democrats won Georgia and the GOP Florida. In 1996 they both switched the other way.