Georgia

[Richard Allen]

Just how much god damn contempt must you have for your potential voters to even contemplate putting out an ad like that?

[CatholicLeft]

Sept 21, 2020 20:43:23 GMT Richard Allen said:

Just how much god damn contempt must you have for your potential voters to even contemplate putting out an ad like that?

Honestly - it beggars belief.

I think that the Democrats have to do all they can to get to the run-off, but backing Warnock does not seem to have paid off - every time he advances, Lieberman seems to as well.  The undecideds need to break for Warnock in the polls soon to get Lieberman's supporters to switch across. I have never understood the view that the Reverend Warnock is a good candidate.

[curiousliberal]

Sept 21, 2020 20:43:23 GMT Richard Allen said:

Just how much god damn contempt must you have for your potential voters to even contemplate putting out an ad like that?

Half a year ago, Loeffler looked doomed because of her insider trading (cast as swampy by her chief Republican opponent) and correctly opted to pivot to a primary campaign as opposed to a general election campaign in a jungle primary demanding both efforts. Doing this means she'll lose theoretical "swing voters" in the runoff, but there are so few of those in Georgia that she's better off crushing it amongst Republicans in November and relying on the fundamentals to tide her over in January.

[Richard Allen]

Sept 21, 2020 21:23:55 GMT curiousliberal said:

Sept 21, 2020 20:43:23 GMT Richard Allen said:

Just how much god damn contempt must you have for your potential voters to even contemplate putting out an ad like that?

Half a year ago, Loeffler looked doomed because of her insider trading (cast as swampy by her chief Republican opponent) and correctly opted to pivot to a primary campaign as opposed to a general election campaign in a jungle primary demanding both efforts. Doing this means she'll lose theoretical "swing voters" in the runoff, but there are so few of those in Georgia that she's better off crushing it amongst Republicans in November and relying on the fundamentals to tide her over in January.

I complete understand that strategy and it was undeniably a broadly good move. I just think this ad is shockingly poor and a down right insult to people whose vote she is seeking.

[mondialito]

If she goes into an all-GOP runoff, surely she would lose to Doug Collins on account of him not being a racist crook?*

*Wishful thinking on my part I know, but it is remarkable how the Dems are screwing the pooch here.

[nelson]

[johng]

So basically movement well within the MOE, though, of course, not the way that Biden would like.

[neilm]

Sept 21, 2020 21:33:49 GMT Richard Allen said:

Sept 21, 2020 21:23:55 GMT curiousliberal said:

Half a year ago, Loeffler looked doomed because of her insider trading (cast as swampy by her chief Republican opponent) and correctly opted to pivot to a primary campaign as opposed to a general election campaign in a jungle primary demanding both efforts. Doing this means she'll lose theoretical "swing voters" in the runoff, but there are so few of those in Georgia that she's better off crushing it amongst Republicans in November and relying on the fundamentals to tide her over in January.

I complete understand that strategy and it was undeniably a broadly good move. I just think this ad is shockingly poor and a down right insult to people whose vote she is seeking.

I think it's quite good.

[CatholicLeft]

Sept 27, 2020 20:46:29 GMT neilm said:

Sept 21, 2020 21:33:49 GMT Richard Allen said:

I complete understand that strategy and it was undeniably a broadly good move. I just think this ad is shockingly poor and a down right insult to people whose vote she is seeking.

I think it's quite good.

Really, what fraternity do you call home?

[nelson]

Sept 21, 2020 21:10:26 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Sept 21, 2020 20:43:23 GMT Richard Allen said:

Just how much god damn contempt must you have for your potential voters to even contemplate putting out an ad like that?

Honestly - it beggars belief.

I think that the Democrats have to do all they can to get to the run-off, but backing Warnock does not seem to have paid off - every time he advances, Lieberman seems to as well.  The undecideds need to break for Warnock in the polls soon to get Lieberman's supporters to switch across. I have never understood the view that the Reverend Warnock is a good candidate.

It's not possible for a Democrat to win a run-off in GA without high AA turnout and running a well-known and respected Black pastor was considered the best way to secure that. Lieberman has no chance in a run-off and is viewed as a spoiler by the party establishment. White Democrats are expected to turn out in sufficient numbers regardless of the candidate. 

According to GA anoraks all the credible (non-PR) internal polling shows Loeffler either tied or behind Collins, which is why Loeffler is so desperate to prove she's "more Conservative". The Georgia GOP has moved sharply to the right since 2016. It used to be relatively moderate by Southern standards due to the Atlanta suburbs, but a lot of those voters have now become Democrats and Georgia Republicans are now comparable to Republicans in the rest of the Deep South. Collins is far more in line with the median GOP voter than Loeffler and her only chance is to pretend she's more right wing than him (and make voters forget she's a "carpetbagging yankee trophy wife from Buckhead").

[CatholicLeft]

Sept 28, 2020 9:16:01 GMT nelson said:

Sept 21, 2020 21:10:26 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Honestly - it beggars belief.

I think that the Democrats have to do all they can to get to the run-off, but backing Warnock does not seem to have paid off - every time he advances, Lieberman seems to as well.  The undecideds need to break for Warnock in the polls soon to get Lieberman's supporters to switch across. I have never understood the view that the Reverend Warnock is a good candidate.

It's not possible for a Democrat to win a run-off in GA without high AA turnout and running a well-known and respected Black pastor was considered the best way to secure that. Lieberman has no chance in a run-off and is viewed as a spoiler by the party establishment. White Democrats are expected to turn out in sufficient numbers regardless of the candidate. 

According to GA anoraks all the credible (non-PR) internal polling shows Loeffler either tied or behind Collins, which is why Loeffler is so desperate to prove she's "more Conservative". The Georgia GOP has moved sharply to the right since 2016. It used to be relatively moderate by Southern standards due to the Atlanta suburbs, but a lot of those voters have now become Democrats and Georgia Republicans are now comparable to Republicans in the rest of the Deep South. Collins is far more in line with the median GOP voter than Loeffler and her only chance is to pretend she's more right wing than him (and make voters forget she's a "carpetbagging yankee trophy wife from Buckhead").

I understand all that, but it is gimmicky - high profile doesn't make for the best candidate. He has never run for election before and it shows. I wonder why Ed Tarver wasn't considered a better choice? An African-American former military officer who has been a state senator and the US Attourney for Southern District of Georgia from 2009-2017, he has some cross-over appeal. He was floored once the Reverend Warnock entered the race and every significant Democratic figure piled in to support him.

[neilm]

Sept 27, 2020 21:09:12 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Sept 27, 2020 20:46:29 GMT neilm said:

I think it's quite good.

Really, what fraternity do you call home?

I don't see what's wrong with it. It presents a message in a humorous fashion, and mocks the liberal scribes in a way that will resonate with voters who she needs to turn out.

[nelson]

[CatholicLeft]

Sept 29, 2020 18:09:26 GMT nelson said:

Well, that certainly sets the cat among the pigeons.

[johng]

It certainly does!

And right on cue, Civiqs has released similar numbers. Their poll was of LV from the 26th to 29th of the 10th. They're B/C on 538 vs B+ for the above.
m.dailykos.com/stories/2020/9/29/1981768/-Warnock-surges-to-Georgia-Senate-special-election-lead-Dems-all-looking-good-Civiqs-poll

Presidential
Biden - 50%
Trump - 47%

Senate
Ossoff (D) - 48%
Perdue (R)(INC) - 46%

Other Senate
Warnock (D) - 38%
Collins (R) - 25%
Loeffler (R) (INC) - 21%
Lieberman (D) - 5%
Tarver (D) - 7%
They have also produced simulated run-off figures with Warnock beating both Collins and Loeffler. My fingers aren't big enough for that pinch of salt though.

[mondialito]

This may explain the shift in Senate Special Election with Democrats getting the message:

abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/obama-endorses-warnock-crowded-georgia-senate-race-73241066

[nelson]

Collins now also solidly ahead of Loeffler in a public poll. 

[johng]

Oct 1, 2020 9:01:45 GMT nelson said:

Collins now also solidly ahead of Loeffler in a public poll. 

I already posted that yesterday.

I wouldn't say 'solidly' either. It is still within the MOE and it's just one poll. Quinnipiac had a poll out yesterday too and it showed Loeffler of him by 1 point.

And, if anything, it's bad news for Warnock. Loeffler is a weaker opponent and her rhetoric is unlikely to go down well with suburban whites.

[nelson]

Oct 1, 2020 9:27:15 GMT johng said:

Oct 1, 2020 9:01:45 GMT nelson said:

Collins now also solidly ahead of Loeffler in a public poll. 

I already posted that yesterday.

I wouldn't say 'solidly' either. It is still within the MOE and it's just one poll. Quinnipiac had a poll out yesterday too and it showed Loeffler of him by 1 point.

And, if anything, it's bad news for Warnock. Loeffler is a weaker opponent and her rhetoric is unlikely to go down well with suburban whites.

- I'm not going to read every single post about the US election, so there'll inevitably be some double posting. 

- Yes other public polls show different things, but this one is the first public poll that is in line with the internal polling that (according to my sources, see one of my earlier posts in this thread) has had Loeffler trailing Collins. It's interesting if the gap between (serious/non-PR) internal and public polling is - finally - closing (it's a bit of a mystery why it occurred in the first place). 

- Of course it's bad news for Warnock. 

EDIT: It referred to this post: 

Sept 28, 2020 9:16:01 GMT nelson said:

It's not possible for a Democrat to win a run-off in GA without high AA turnout and running a well-known and respected Black pastor was considered the best way to secure that. Lieberman has no chance in a run-off and is viewed as a spoiler by the party establishment. White Democrats are expected to turn out in sufficient numbers regardless of the candidate.

According to GA anoraks all the credible (non-PR) internal polling shows Loeffler either tied or behind Collins, which is why Loeffler is so desperate to prove she's "more Conservative". The Georgia GOP has moved sharply to the right since 2016. It used to be relatively moderate by Southern standards due to the Atlanta suburbs, but a lot of those voters have now become Democrats and Georgia Republicans are now comparable to Republicans in the rest of the Deep South. Collins is far more in line with the median GOP voter than Loeffler and her only chance is to pretend she's more right wing than him (and make voters forget she's a "carpetbagging yankee trophy wife from Buckhead").

[nelson]

That's Biden +9 from their last poll.