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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 20, 2020 18:41:17 GMT
Again I’d suggest Democrats are voting by mail not in-person; it’d be worth checking online with the raw numbers by county rather than take isolated headlines like this. This seems to be the case, not that it isn’t confusing to track. The Dem lead in the postal vote is also notable, because it’s a much larger number of votes. Either way, it seems underwhelming for the Dems when you look at their performance in other states? I’m not sure as they seem to be outperforming in mail ballots. Also (and I can’t find anything on a first look online) you’d need to compare with other years - from what I can gather early voting, both mail and in person on both sides is breaking records, so it may be people have decided voting early is safer than long queues on Election Day itself. One other thing, and Google is not cooperating tonight, which is the area where the big African American mega churches bus people to the polls on a Sunday during early voting, which boosts Democratic turnout considerably. |
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Florida
Oct 20, 2020 19:46:59 GMT
via mobile
Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 20, 2020 19:46:59 GMT
After early voting started, Florida's RCP average went from Biden +4.5 to Biden +1.0.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630 
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Post by johng on Oct 20, 2020 20:17:39 GMT
After early voting started, Florida's RCP average went from Biden +4.5 to Biden +1.0. Nate Silver had something to say on that. Not on FL specifically, but on how they are calculating their numbers.
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CatholicLeft
Co-operative Party
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 2,836
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Florida
Oct 20, 2020 21:14:38 GMT
via mobile
Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 20, 2020 21:14:38 GMT
After early voting started, Florida's RCP average went from Biden +4.5 to Biden +1.0. Yeah, well, no surprise there. |
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Florida
Oct 21, 2020 6:45:16 GMT
via mobile
Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 21, 2020 6:45:16 GMT
In-Person Early Votes by party ID
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Florida
Oct 22, 2020 4:53:33 GMT
via mobile
Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 22, 2020 4:53:33 GMT
In-Person Early Vote and Vote By Mail returns by party ID
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
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Post by johng on Oct 22, 2020 8:34:04 GMT
In-Person Early Votes by party ID I think you need to look at the bigger picture.
Yes, in-person early votes are higher for the GOP. Latest data is that there have been 720,698 in total with 44.5% being GOP and 38.8% Dem. However, mail-in voting is leaning heavily Democratic. Latest data is that 2,954,359 have been received in total with 48.4% being Dem and 30.5% being GOP.
In 2016, the GOP narrowly won the mail-in vote and narrowly lost the early in-person vote. It's very difficult to compare to 2016 though as the number of early voters is just so different. More have already voted by mail than did in total by mail in 2016 whilst in-person voting is lower.
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Post by matureleft on Oct 22, 2020 8:44:49 GMT
In-Person Early Votes by party ID I think you need to look at the bigger picture.
Yes, in-person early votes are higher for the GOP. Latest data is that there have been 720,698 in total with 44.5% being GOP and 38.8% Dem. However, mail-in voting is leaning heavily Democratic. Latest data is that 2,954,359 have been received in total with 48.4% being Dem and 30.5% being GOP.
In 2016, the GOP narrowly won the mail-in vote and narrowly lost the early in-person vote. It's very difficult to compare to 2016 though as the number of early voters is just so different. More have already voted by mail than did in total by mail in 2016 whilst in-person voting is lower.
Sound stuff. One difficulty about the switch to mail-in voting is that, even when sent in this early, there's uncertainty as to whether they'll be counted as the rules are pretty tight, and enforced with rigidity in many places. States vary on how "faulty" absentee votes can be "cured". Not sure what the Florida system is but I'd imagine that, whatever the rules are, they'll be watched and then litigated on! |
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Florida
Oct 22, 2020 9:50:40 GMT
via mobile
Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 22, 2020 9:50:40 GMT
In-Person Early Votes by party ID I think you need to look at the bigger picture.
Yes, in-person early votes are higher for the GOP. Latest data is that there have been 720,698 in total with 44.5% being GOP and 38.8% Dem. However, mail-in voting is leaning heavily Democratic. Latest data is that 2,954,359 have been received in total with 48.4% being Dem and 30.5% being GOP.
In 2016, the GOP narrowly won the mail-in vote and narrowly lost the early in-person vote. It's very difficult to compare to 2016 though as the number of early voters is just so different. More have already voted by mail than did in total by mail in 2016 whilst in-person voting is lower.
Fair point and we don't have any of the in-person election day vote yet. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
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Post by johng on Oct 22, 2020 10:14:04 GMT
It's also a mistake, and this is something we all do, to say that either party is ahead with early voters. They are only ahead with voters who have registered as that party. Being registered GOP =/= a vote for Trump and Dem =/= a vote for Biden.
One of the arguments put forward for the closing of the Dem/GOP registration gap in Florida over the last few cycles is that people who previously registered Dem - but voted GOP - are switching their registration to GOP. I am unsure of the extent of it, but it's obviously happening.
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 22, 2020 10:22:32 GMT
It's also a mistake, and this is something we all do, to say that either party is ahead with early voters. They are only ahead with voters who have registered as that party. Being registered GOP =/= a vote for Trump and Dem =/= a vote for Biden. One of the arguments put forward for the closing of the Dem/GOP registration gap in Florida over the last few cycles is that people who previously registered Dem - but voted GOP - are switching their registration to GOP. I am unsure of the extent of it, but it's obviously happening. The one thing we can do, as Jon Ralston has done in his latest blog on Nevada early voting, is calculate the historical churn between parties at each election and then apply the different scenarios to this election. I think the point about registered Democrats who voted Republican switching their registration applies more to Kentucky and particularly West Virginia than Florida; this year is more a case of the Republicans have been going out campaigning door-top-door during the pandemic, so have been registering their supporters whereas the Democrats have been concentrating more on virtual and phone campaigning with the aim of signing people up for mail ballots. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 26,676
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 22, 2020 11:28:01 GMT
There is certainly an argument that party registration is very much a "lagging indicator" rather than the opposite.
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peterl
Green
Read My Lips: No New Lockdowns!
Posts: 4,285
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Post by peterl on Oct 24, 2020 21:04:18 GMT
Per BBC feed, "President Donald Trump has voted early in the US election, while on a campaign visit in Florida." Anyone know how come Trump can vote in Florida, when he lives in DC and is from New York? While it is all one election, because of the electoral college presumably which state a person votes in makes a difference.
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 24, 2020 21:06:26 GMT
Per BBC feed, "President Donald Trump has voted early in the US election, while on a campaign visit in Florida." Anyone know how come Trump can vote in Florida, when he lives in DC and is from New York? While it is all one election, because of the electoral college presumably which state a person votes in makes a difference. He changed his registration to his Mar-a-Lago residence in FL much earlier this year to emphasise his connections to the state. |
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Merseymike
Independent
Don't vote. It only encourages them.
Posts: 30,219
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 24, 2020 21:07:53 GMT
Per BBC feed, "President Donald Trump has voted early in the US election, while on a campaign visit in Florida." Anyone know how come Trump can vote in Florida, when he lives in DC and is from New York? While it is all one election, because of the electoral college presumably which state a person votes in makes a difference. He is registered at his home on the golf resort in Florida |
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peterl
Green
Read My Lips: No New Lockdowns!
Posts: 4,285
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Post by peterl on Oct 24, 2020 21:08:05 GMT
Thanks, that makes sense.
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 24, 2020 21:45:29 GMT
There’s a little story about switching registration; after his spell as Bush 41’s Defense Secretary Dick Cheney went to work in the Texas oil industry and registered to vote there. However there’s a not very well known bit in the Constitution that says a President and Vice Presidential nominee can’t be from the same State, and 24 hours before he was officially announced as Bush 43’s running mate an enterprising reporter in Cheyenne, Wyoming discovered Cheney had re-registered there, thereby giving the game away that he was going to be the Veep nominee.
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minionofmidas
Non-Aligned
only here for the boundary review
Posts: 617
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Florida
Oct 25, 2020 6:28:16 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 25, 2020 6:28:16 GMT
They can be from the same state... they just can't both receive that state's electoral votes!
Of course it works out to the same thing in practice.
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finsobruce
Labour
Five people have watched this in the last hour.
Posts: 31,145
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 25, 2020 9:41:54 GMT
Per BBC feed, "President Donald Trump has voted early in the US election, while on a campaign visit in Florida." Anyone know how come Trump can vote in Florida, when he lives in DC and is from New York? While it is all one election, because of the electoral college presumably which state a person votes in makes a difference. He is registered at his home on the golf resort in Florida Once again illustrating his bunker mentality.  |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 25, 2020 9:43:10 GMT
He is registered at his home on the golf resort in Florida Once again illustrating his bunker mentality. Par for the course. |
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