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Florida
Sept 8, 2020 19:56:04 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Sept 8, 2020 19:56:04 GMT
Biden carrying over 65+, and Trump carrying latinos. 65+: Biden 49-48% Latinos: Trump 50-46% What were the actual results of these two groups in Florida in 2016? Exit poll data.. so customary grain of salt. 65+: Trump 57% Clinton 40%. Latinos: Clinton 62% Trump 35%. |
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Post by MacShimidh on Sept 9, 2020 17:17:00 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 9, 2020 17:23:09 GMT
Nothing for the Biden campaign to worry about here. It's not as if there was a recent election where a 76-77 year old Democratic favourite in FL with poor Hispanic outreach was outmatched by smart Republican communication to a changing electorate and an incompetent state Democratic party. |
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finsobruce
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 9, 2020 17:34:43 GMT
Surely all presidential candidates do this in Florida? |
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 9, 2020 20:00:14 GMT
The GOP making a play for Latinos goes back to Karl Rove running the George W Bush campaign in 2000, when some exit polling (disputed by others) suggested they won the highest percentage of the Latino vote ever; the message was however undermined in subsequent elections by the relentless focus on cracking down on illegal immigration, and the abandonment of the attempted bipartisan legislation on DACA. I would imagine Trump in Florida is pitching his cancelling of Obama's relaxation of sanctions on Cuba to the older Cuban-American community, and portraying Biden as being in hock to "socialists" to the same Cuban-Americans and those who have fled leftist regimes in Central and South America. This will of course only work as long as he doesn't start banging on about his border wall again, as that remains unpopular with the overwhelming majority of Latinos everywhere. |
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Bert
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Post by Bert on Sept 9, 2020 20:21:04 GMT
The GOP making a play for Latinos goes back to Karl Rove running the George W Bush campaign in 2000, when some exit polling (disputed by others) suggested they won the highest percentage of the Latino vote ever; the message was however undermined in subsequent elections by the relentless focus on cracking down on illegal immigration, and the abandonment of the attempted bipartisan legislation on DACA. I would imagine Trump in Florida is pitching his cancelling of Obama's relaxation of sanctions on Cuba to the older Cuban-American community, and portraying Biden as being in hock to "socialists" to the same Cuban-Americans and those who have fled leftist regimes in Central and South America. This will of course only work as long as he doesn't start banging on about his border wall again, as that remains unpopular with the overwhelming majority of Latinos everywhere. Liked. The idea that any ethnic minority is a 'voting block' makes even less sense with Latinos than anybody. |
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Richard Allen
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Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 9, 2020 20:27:57 GMT
The GOP making a play for Latinos goes back to Karl Rove running the George W Bush campaign in 2000, when some exit polling (disputed by others) suggested they won the highest percentage of the Latino vote ever; the message was however undermined in subsequent elections by the relentless focus on cracking down on illegal immigration, and the abandonment of the attempted bipartisan legislation on DACA. I would imagine Trump in Florida is pitching his cancelling of Obama's relaxation of sanctions on Cuba to the older Cuban-American community, and portraying Biden as being in hock to "socialists" to the same Cuban-Americans and those who have fled leftist regimes in Central and South America. This will of course only work as long as he doesn't start banging on about his border wall again, as that remains unpopular with the overwhelming majority of Latinos everywhere. It was actually 2004 where Bush did very will with Latino voters with one exit poll putting him at 44% Trump will probably do better with Latinos than last time as long as immigration stays low on the radar. The lower salience of that issue might however harm him with some white voters so the net effect is hard to judge. Despite some polls showing Biden with a solid lead here I would be surprised if there was more than 2% in it either way. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 9, 2020 20:36:26 GMT
The GOP making a play for Latinos goes back to Karl Rove running the George W Bush campaign in 2000, when some exit polling (disputed by others) suggested they won the highest percentage of the Latino vote ever; the message was however undermined in subsequent elections by the relentless focus on cracking down on illegal immigration, and the abandonment of the attempted bipartisan legislation on DACA. I would imagine Trump in Florida is pitching his cancelling of Obama's relaxation of sanctions on Cuba to the older Cuban-American community, and portraying Biden as being in hock to "socialists" to the same Cuban-Americans and those who have fled leftist regimes in Central and South America. This will of course only work as long as he doesn't start banging on about his border wall again, as that remains unpopular with the overwhelming majority of Latinos everywhere. It was actually 2004 where Bush did very will with Latino voters with one exit poll putting him at 44% Trump will probably do better with Latinos than last time as long as immigration stays low on the radar. The lower salience of that issue might however harm him with some white voters so the net effect is hard to judge. Despite some polls showing Biden with a solid lead here I would be surprised if there was more than 2% in it either way. Wrong year, sorry, however I agree, we could well be waiting for Florida almost up to Inauguration Day itself! |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 9, 2020 20:46:27 GMT
It was actually 2004 where Bush did very will with Latino voters with one exit poll putting him at 44% Trump will probably do better with Latinos than last time as long as immigration stays low on the radar. The lower salience of that issue might however harm him with some white voters so the net effect is hard to judge. Despite some polls showing Biden with a solid lead here I would be surprised if there was more than 2% in it either way. Wrong year, sorry, however I agree, we could well be waiting for Florida almost up to Inauguration Day itself! Ironically we should get the result from Florida far quicker than many others states. Election day is the deadline for returning absentee ballots they start processing them (i.e checking that they are valid) three weeks before election day and then count them as soon as the polls close. Therefore unless things are very, very close we should get the result on the night. In contrast PA, MI and WI don't start processing absentee ballots until election day and so we could end up waiting much longer for their results. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 9, 2020 20:48:48 GMT
Wrong year, sorry, however I agree, we could well be waiting for Florida almost up to Inauguration Day itself! Ironically we should get the result from Florida far quicker than many others states. Election day is the deadline for returning absentee ballots they start processing them (i.e checking that they are valid) three weeks before election day and then count them as soon as the polls close. Therefore unless things are very, very close we should get the result on the night. In contrast PA, MI and WI don't start processing absentee ballots until election day and so we could end up waiting much longer for their results. I’m thinking endless court battles, recounts (is it 1% or 1.5% that triggers an automatic recount?), more court battles... |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 9, 2020 21:21:50 GMT
Ironically we should get the result from Florida far quicker than many others states. Election day is the deadline for returning absentee ballots they start processing them (i.e checking that they are valid) three weeks before election day and then count them as soon as the polls close. Therefore unless things are very, very close we should get the result on the night. In contrast PA, MI and WI don't start processing absentee ballots until election day and so we could end up waiting much longer for their results. I’m thinking endless court battles, recounts (is it 1% or 1.5% that triggers an automatic recount?), more court battles... I know, I know. Perhaps we should take bets on which heavily Democratic county will do something really stupid this time. |
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 15, 2020 13:05:11 GMT
Florida Atlantic University have published their first Likely Voters poll indicating a tightening race (their last in May had the race at Biden 53 - Trump 47 among registered voters), although the LV screen might account for most of the difference. Biden leads by 3 in this poll, but when undecided voters who lean towards one candidate over another are pushed, the result is an exact tie (315 to 315 voters). 0.2% of the sample (precisely 1 voter) opted for "someone else" (if this poll is correct, they'll decide the election) and in the quietest parts of Broward County, passers-by swore that they could hear something that sounded like Al Gore howling in the wind.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 16, 2020 12:14:48 GMT
They're not as flashy as partisan contests, but ballot initiatives are responsible for driving a lot of serious reforms in recent years because they are best equipped to smash through polarisation and the personal politics that increasingly dominates the US landscape. In Florida, voter-initiated state constitutional amendments must clear a threshold of 60% to pass and Monmouth has what seem to be the first polls on two of the six up this year: Raise the minimum wage to $15/hr by 2026: YES 67% NO 26% Would not vote on this amendment 1% Don't know 6% Change the Floridian primary system to the Californian primary system: YES 63% NO 21% Would not vote on this amendment 1% Don't know 15% |
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 16, 2020 13:38:31 GMT
They're not as flashy as partisan contests, but ballot initiatives are responsible for driving a lot of serious reforms in recent years because they are best equipped to smash through polarisation and the personal politics that increasingly dominates the US landscape. In Florida, voter-initiated state constitutional amendments must clear a threshold of 60% to pass and Monmouth has what seem to be the first polls on two of the six up this year: Raise the minimum wage to $15/hr by 2026: YES 67% NO 26% Would not vote on this amendment 1% Don't know 6% Change the Floridian primary system to the Californian primary system: YES 63% NO 21% Would not vote on this amendment 1% Don't know 15% I don’t have them at hand, but Daily Kos Elections say these numbers “contradict earlier ones by St Pete Polls. |
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 16, 2020 13:48:20 GMT
They're not as flashy as partisan contests, but ballot initiatives are responsible for driving a lot of serious reforms in recent years because they are best equipped to smash through polarisation and the personal politics that increasingly dominates the US landscape. In Florida, voter-initiated state constitutional amendments must clear a threshold of 60% to pass and Monmouth has what seem to be the first polls on two of the six up this year: Raise the minimum wage to $15/hr by 2026: YES 67% NO 26% Would not vote on this amendment 1% Don't know 6% Change the Floridian primary system to the Californian primary system: YES 63% NO 21% Would not vote on this amendment 1% Don't know 15% I don’t have them at hand, but Daily Kos Elections say these numbers “contradict earlier ones by St Pete Polls. Good catch! I've since found a May 26-27 survey from them polling the Californian primary amendment. Along with an earlier St. Pete survey, it also polls the minimum wage amendment (edit: I misread it initially; it is the same $15/hr amendment). Minimum wage: yes 64%, no 24%, unsure 12% Top-two primary: yes 35%, no 44%, unsure 20% The previous minimum wage survey (taken June 16, 2019) has support at yes 63%, no 26%, unsure 10%. Edit: I mixed up the results there. Sorry for any confusion caused (since corrected). |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 22, 2020 15:19:43 GMT
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 29, 2020 9:20:36 GMT
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 29, 2020 9:49:26 GMT
Using the term Hispanics as a catch-all is daft, particularly in Florida - Cuban-Americans, a big part of the Florida electorate, skew heavily for the Republicans. It'll be interesting to see how many of the rapidly growing Puerto Rican community have registered and how they vote. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 29, 2020 10:16:59 GMT
Using the term Hispanics as a catch-all is daft, particularly in Florida - Cuban-Americans, a big part of the Florida electorate, skew heavily for the Republicans. It'll be interesting to see how many of the rapidly growing Puerto Rican community have registered and how they vote. If you have any knowledge of my posting history you'll know that I'm quite nuanced when it comes to the various Hispanic and Black groups in the US, but it would still be historic if Trump actually won the Hispanic vote in FL, and even more so if Biden simultaneously carried the state based on white retirees. I think we should be allowed to enjoy the possibility of interesting results / fun trivia on a nerdy forum like this. Younger Cubans have been moving steadily towards the Democrats for decades and it would require a reversal of that trend if Trump were to win FL Hispanics. Cuban-Americans are far less R leaning than in the 80s and 90s. The other two big Hispanic groups in FL are Mexican-Americas (a heavily Democratic leaning group outside of the "old stock" Tejano population in TX) and Puerto Ricans (which many are new arrivals to the mainland US post-hurricane and according to local observers rather disengaged from US politics) which leaves an older PR population that is also usually D leaning although far less so than the Mexican-Americand. The Venezuelans and Colombian population has been growing fast (and lean heavily R), but is still rather marginal, and many Venezuelans don't have citizenship. |
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CatholicLeft
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Florida
Sept 29, 2020 15:17:36 GMT
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 29, 2020 15:17:36 GMT
Using the term Hispanics as a catch-all is daft, particularly in Florida - Cuban-Americans, a big part of the Florida electorate, skew heavily for the Republicans. It'll be interesting to see how many of the rapidly growing Puerto Rican community have registered and how they vote. If you have any knowledge of my posting history you'll know that I'm quite nuanced when it comes to the various Hispanic and Black groups in the US, but it would still be historic if Trump actually won the Hispanic vote in FL, and even more so if Biden simultaneously carried the state based on white retirees. I think we should be allowed to enjoy the possibility of interesting results / fun trivia on a nerdy forum like this. Younger Cubans have been moving steadily towards the Democrats for decades and it would require a reversal of that trend if Trump were to win FL Hispanics. Cuban-Americans are far less R leaning than in the 80s and 90s. The other two big Hispanic groups in FL are Mexican-Americas (a heavily Democratic leaning group outside of the "old stock" Tejano population in TX) and Puerto Ricans (which many are new arrivals to the mainland US post-hurricane and according to local observers rather disengaged from US politics) which leaves an older PR population that is also usually D leaning although far less so than the Mexican-Americand. The Venezuelans and Colombian population has been growing fast (and lean heavily R), but is still rather marginal, and many Venezuelans don't have citizenship. No problem with a bit of fun, I just feel we need to avoid catch-alls. |
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