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Post by conservativeestimate on Jul 13, 2020 15:48:34 GMT
CBS News Battleground Tracker
Florida (Likely Voters)
BIDEN 48%
TRUMP 42%
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Post by rivers10 on Jul 13, 2020 15:57:10 GMT
CBS News Battleground Tracker Florida (Likely Voters) BIDEN 48% TRUMP 42% I hope I'm wrong but I repeat the prediction I made on the Minnesota thread, just watch as come election day a combination of Biden's dire performance in the campaign proper, differential turnout and the Republicans finely honed industrial scale voter suppression operation in this state (and others) see's Trump over the line. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Jul 13, 2020 16:06:24 GMT
CBS News Battleground Tracker Florida (Likely Voters) BIDEN 48% TRUMP 42% I hope I'm wrong but I repeat the prediction I made on the Minnesota thread, just watch as come election day a combination of Biden's dire performance in the campaign proper, differential turnout and the Republicans finely honed industrial scale voter suppression operation in this state (and others) see's Trump over the line. I respectfully disagree, at least on Florida. In states with more retired voters than average the anger at Trump's Coronavirus response is more damaging to him. I'd also argue that senior citizens in the sun belt are more likely to register for and return postal votes than millennials. If Joementum continues with seniors, Trump may lose Florida due to postal votes even if he wins it on election day. |
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Post by adlai52 on Jul 13, 2020 19:44:32 GMT
CBS News Battleground Tracker Florida (Likely Voters) BIDEN 48% TRUMP 42% I hope I'm wrong but I repeat the prediction I made on the Minnesota thread, just watch as come election day a combination of Biden's dire performance in the campaign proper, differential turnout and the Republicans finely honed industrial scale voter suppression operation in this state (and others) see's Trump over the line. For which there really isn’t any precedent in his campaign so far or in any other campaign he’s run? I appreciate wanting to learn the lessons from 2016, but the assumption that Biden is a poor campaigner and will torpedo his own campaign just doesn’t stack up. That Biden is gaffe prone isn’t a secret, but that been true for decades and never hurt him (quite the contrary). Furthermore he’s running against Trump, who almost all the recent polling suggests is uniquely ill placed to campaign on competence. The Trump campaign has been making lots of attempts to undermine Biden, but these have so far failed. On this score, the Trump campaign is well behind where the likes of Bush or Obama at this stage in their re-election campaigns. Meanwhile, voter suppression might have an impact in some states (Georgia being a prime example, but maybe Florida) - but Biden’s coalition is certainly more efficient than Clinton’s and even if he was reduced to a 2-3% popular vote margin it would likely still mean he narrowly wins the EV. The race could narrow, but right now there isn’t much evidence - either from recent polling or less recent second order elections - pointing to Trump and the GOP clawing back the significant amount of ground they need to. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Jul 15, 2020 10:24:33 GMT
CBS News Battleground Tracker
Florida reopened too quickly because...
The state thought it was right 32%
Pressure from the Trump administration 68%
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Florida
Jul 18, 2020 21:12:39 GMT
via mobile
Post by conservativeestimate on Jul 18, 2020 21:12:39 GMT
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Florida
Aug 17, 2020 23:11:37 GMT
via mobile
Post by conservativeestimate on Aug 17, 2020 23:11:37 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 17, 2020 23:43:17 GMT
This isn't going anywhere. Perelman has failed to catch fire, it's her volunteer's report against silence so the story isn't likely to change that and some of the anger against DWS has subsided as her record as DNC chair faded from prominence (although not her record as a Congresswoman). DWS could lose a primary to a competent challenger who actually had name ID, but it's too late for Perelman to get that, I think. She hasn't even got many major endorsements (wikipedia lists Yang, Marianne Williamson, Brand New Congress and the local Our Revolution group). There's no public polling or leaked private polling and Perelman's fundraising is mediocre according to opensecrets (she's raised 300k and has 90k on hand, whereas the incumbent has raised 1.5m and has 600k on hand). |
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 19, 2020 13:49:14 GMT
In the end, DWS won quite comfortably, although Republican Congressman Mike Spano was unseated by a well-funded challenger. The relatively high number of successful primary challenges (potentially with more to come in the last of 2020's primaries) is not a federal anomaly according to the head of CNAnalysis (which is one of the most comprehensive sources on forecasting state legislative elections in 2020):
It should be noted here that the number is especially high in Alaska because certain Republican state lawmakers went into coalition with local Democrats to stop some of the deepest cuts their governor had planned.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Aug 19, 2020 14:09:54 GMT
In the end, DWS won quite comfortably, although Republican Congressman Mike Spano was unseated by a well-funded challenger. The relatively high number of successful primary challenges (potentially with more to come in the last of 2020's primaries) is not a federal anomaly according to the head of CNAnalysis (which is one of the most comprehensive sources on forecasting state legislative elections in 2020): It should be noted here that the number is especially high in Alaska because certain Republican state lawmakers went into coalition with local Democrats to stop some of the deepest cuts their governor had planned. Except, it seems the reasons are more diverse than that. District 8: challenger endorsed by party machine due to poor attendance by the incumbent District 13: same position on cuts and the oil dividend for both candidates, but incumbent was co-opted rather than elected and she is black. District 15: Incumbent was anti-cuts (but not in the coalition), but her being prosecuted by the FBI for voter fraud was probably more damaging. District 24: That one fits District 28: That one fits So, of the 5 coalition Republicans, 2 were primaried, 1 survived his primary (by 13 votes) and 2 were unopposed. |
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Post by MacShimidh on Aug 19, 2020 20:59:57 GMT
Perhaps also worth pointing out that far-right wingnut Laura Loomer has won the Republican nomination for FL-21, a fairly safe Dem seat based around Palm Beach. The Bulwark has a pretty good write-up on her. |
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Post by relique on Aug 20, 2020 10:31:45 GMT
If what he's saying about Miami-Dade county is correct, then there are two target seats for republicans: 26th and 27th districts, both from Miami-Dade and both flipped by democrats in 2018. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 22, 2020 9:57:13 GMT
In the end, DWS won quite comfortably, although Republican Congressman Mike Spano was unseated by a well-funded challenger. You mean Ross Spano? |
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 26, 2020 12:44:16 GMT
In Florida's 18th district, the incumbent Republican has been engulfed in a scandal: The Democratic nominee is a "moderate" who dislikes Sanders supporters if that's any consolation to local centrists who don't want M4A. However, genuine moderate voters would probably be more irked by the fact that she's also the rather crazy resistance Twitter activist who insisted that Democratic voter registration not translating into Democratic votes meant voter fraud. Amongst her greatest hits is the following:  But don't worry, guys! An independent has filed for the ballot...and it's this guy:  FL-18 has it all. |
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unrepentantfool
Socialist
Politically homeless but not politically inactive :D
Posts: 901
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Post by unrepentantfool on Sept 7, 2020 2:41:23 GMT
In Florida's 18th district, the incumbent Republican has been engulfed in a scandal: The Democratic nominee is a "moderate" who dislikes Sanders supporters if that's any consolation to local centrists who don't want M4A. However, genuine moderate voters would probably be more irked by the fact that she's also the rather crazy resistance Twitter activist who insisted that Democratic voter registration not translating into Democratic votes meant voter fraud. Amongst her greatest hits is the following: But don't worry, guys! An independent has filed for the ballot...and it's this guy: FL-18 has it all. It's a good example of a candidate list that ranges on a scale of slightly mad (the Democrat) to batshit crazy (the Independent). I wonder if he does get sued by Beyonce in the end... |
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AJS
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Post by AJS on Sept 8, 2020 17:16:26 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 8, 2020 17:36:21 GMT
A good poll on the face of it, but not quite top-tier this time - it doesn't weight by education. |
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Florida
Sept 8, 2020 17:41:24 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Sept 8, 2020 17:41:24 GMT
Biden carrying over 65+, and Trump carrying latinos.
65+: Biden 49-48%
Latinos: Trump 50-46%
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Florida
Sept 8, 2020 19:41:14 GMT
via mobile
Post by thirdchill on Sept 8, 2020 19:41:14 GMT
Biden carrying over 65+, and Trump carrying latinos. 65+: Biden 49-48% Latinos: Trump 50-46% What were the actual results of these two groups in Florida in 2016? |
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European Lefty
Labour
I am autistic, so If I'm rude or inappropriate it's probably by accident. If not, you'll know it!
Posts: 1,942
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Post by European Lefty on Sept 8, 2020 19:55:47 GMT
Biden carrying over 65+, and Trump carrying latinos. 65+: Biden 49-48% Latinos: Trump 50-46% What were the actual results of these two groups in Florida in 2016? 65+: Trump 57-40 Latinos: 62-35 Clinton |
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