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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 6, 2020 12:04:12 GMT
While there’s been a few very bad polls recently, to give up on Arizona seems a mistake to me. It still voted for Trump by 4% in 2016 and previous polls had found a closer race so the state could still end up being in the tipping point zone. The 538 averages suggest it falls to Biden after all of the Clinton states, Michigan and Wisconsin and only marginally before PA. Those rust belt states probably have more persuadable voters but Trump needs fewer of those to begin with in AZ and Biden is already at over 50% in MN. I would personally opt to wait until any potential Democratic convention bounces had settled before pulling out of any 100 tipping point EVs bar NH, which seems to have clearly drifted Democratic even as MI has returned to about the same level as MN and WI. Polls with sampling periods starting from September 4 would be the ones to assess in withdrawing from any other states, from the Trump campaign's perspective. I'd wager the best of the 96 remaining EVs to triage would actually be MI, MN, WI and - probably controversial, but here goes - NC. The last of these seems much better for Trump than other potential tipping points, arguably so much so that it should no longer be regarded as a state which could decide the presidential election. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 6, 2020 12:30:58 GMT
While there’s been a few very bad polls recently, to give up on Arizona seems a mistake to me. It still voted for Trump by 4% in 2016 and previous polls had found a closer race so the state could still end up being in the tipping point zone. From all counts this isn’t giving up on Arizona at all, it’s just pausing until early ballots go out in early October. There can be a number of reasons for this: there’s a school of thought that says people get election overload by November, so early is the time to take a timeout, they could be doing as they did in Michigan where apparently the new campaign manager hated what had been filmed prior to his arrival, pulled it, and shot entirely new commercials, if there is any coordination with the other campaigns they could have decided to give McSally room to herself, and what the report doesn’t say from the bits we can read is whether the Trump money is going to be replaced with spending from outside groups including his SuperPAC that’s (theoretically) independent of the campaign, but blatantly isn’t. |
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Arizona
Oct 1, 2020 15:47:40 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 1, 2020 15:47:40 GMT
FYI Arizona is a state where we could see the 'red mirage' effect because on election night in 2018 the Republicans led in the Senate race and went on to lose the next day.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630 
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Post by johng on Oct 2, 2020 15:49:07 GMT
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 8,404
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Arizona
Oct 2, 2020 16:28:00 GMT
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 2, 2020 16:28:00 GMT
More undecided though so likely a big chunk of that will go Kelly's way (and he's still not as 'known' as the former veep. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
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Post by johng on Oct 5, 2020 18:40:48 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Co-operative Party
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 2,836
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 5, 2020 19:34:18 GMT
She isn't really an incumbent though, is she? The fact she lost her Senate race to Krysten Sinema, and still got appointed anyway, does her no favours. Probably the worst sort of defence for her. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 5, 2020 19:58:46 GMT
Bluerizona
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Richard Allen
Non-Aligned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 17,078
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 5, 2020 23:59:54 GMT
She isn't really an incumbent though, is she? The fact she lost her Senate race to Krysten Sinema, and still got appointed anyway, does her no favours. Probably the worst sort of defence for her. if they wanted her to run again they would have been better off appointing a placeholder. Shew would have avoided the stigma of having been appointed following a defeat and would not have had to take a load of awkward votes. Of course this wouldn't have changed the now obvious fact that she is a bloody awful candidate. |
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Arizona
Oct 6, 2020 6:58:46 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 6, 2020 6:58:46 GMT
For those that don't know, Maricopa County is where 60% of Arizona's population lives
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 6, 2020 18:23:49 GMT
As a former resident of Maricopa County, +13875 voters is sort of chicken feed. The county population is about 4.5 million.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
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Post by johng on Oct 15, 2020 19:05:59 GMT
New Monmouth poll out today. I don't know why they continue with the low turnout numbers when this election is obviously going to have a very high turnout.
McSally's favorabilities are pretty horrendous if you look at the data tables at 33/45.
President RV / High Turnout
Biden - 50% / 51%
Trump - 44% / 44%
Senate RV / High Turnout
Kelly (D) - 52% / 52%
McSally (R) (INC) - 42% / 42%
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Post by mrhell on Oct 15, 2020 22:30:14 GMT
New Monmouth poll out today. I don't know why they continue with the low turnout numbers when this election is obviously going to have a very high turnout. McSally's favorabilities are pretty horrendous if you look at the data tables at 33/45. President RV / High Turnout Biden - 50% / 51% Trump - 44% / 44% Senate RV / High Turnout Kelly (D) - 52% / 52% McSally (R) (INC) - 42% / 42%
Arizona's only been Democrat in 1996 since Truman in 1948.
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Post by David Boothroyd on Oct 15, 2020 22:56:42 GMT
Was pretty close in 1964 even with Barry Goldwater on the ticket.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 1,630
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Post by johng on Oct 18, 2020 16:32:10 GMT
Yougov for CBS have a new poll out. Biden ahead, but within the margin of error, so not a particularly good poll for him considering national polling. It's quite in line with most other pollsters though with most of them showing Biden between +3 and +6 ahead.
President
Biden - 50%
Trump - 47%
Senate
Kelly (D) - 52%
McSally (R) (INC) - 41%
Interestingly, and importantly for results night, the numbers for those who have already voted are 70-28 for Biden.
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Arizona
Oct 22, 2020 15:30:47 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 22, 2020 15:30:47 GMT
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David
Scottish Conservative
Posts: 7,880
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Arizona
Oct 25, 2020 20:07:44 GMT
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Post by David on Oct 25, 2020 20:07:44 GMT
Buzz Aldrin seems to have endorsed McSally.
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finsobruce
Labour
Five people have watched this in the last hour.
Posts: 31,145
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 25, 2020 20:09:43 GMT
Buzz Aldrin seems to have endorsed McSally. She'll be over the moon with that endorsement. |
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Arizona
Oct 27, 2020 20:14:04 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 27, 2020 20:14:04 GMT
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Arizona
Oct 28, 2020 6:58:06 GMT
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Post by heslingtonian on Oct 28, 2020 6:58:06 GMT
All polls suggest a narrow Biden victory. Trump will regret making an enemy of the McCain family - Biden 51%, Trump 47%
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