Alaska

[nelson]

"Democratic and Republican outside groups are flooding the state with new spending in the final four weeks of the campaign between GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democratic-backed independent Al Gross."

It's a money bomb': Parties rush to surprising Alaska Senate race

[John Chanin]

Oct 7, 2020 21:03:25 GMT nelson said:

New House of Representatives poll by Alaska Survey Research (B/C rating) has Alyse Galvin ahead in her rematch against 87-year old Don Young, who has held the "biggest seat in the nation" since 1973.

Alyse Galvin (D) 48%
Don Young (R) 46%

It really is extraordinary how the USA is a gerontocracy

[curiousliberal]

Oct 9, 2020 16:12:53 GMT John Chanin said:

Oct 7, 2020 21:03:25 GMT nelson said:

New House of Representatives poll by Alaska Survey Research (B/C rating) has Alyse Galvin ahead in her rematch against 87-year old Don Young, who has held the "biggest seat in the nation" since 1973.

Alyse Galvin (D) 48%
Don Young (R) 46%

It really is extraordinary how the USA is a gerontocracy

Don Young has been shown trailing in polls before but seems relatively active for a member of Congress and I expect him to narrowly win again. He's at an age where most have retired but some are still capable of serving and is no ordinary Congressman himself.

The US is something of a gerontocracy, but no ordinary gerontocrat can get away with pulling a knife on a House Speaker when their initial attempt at pork-barrelling fails and then have said Speaker turn up to their wedding as a groomsman.

[Richard Allen]

NYT / Siena College


Trump (R): 45
Biden (D): 39
Jorgenson (L): 8

Sullivan (R): 45
Gross (D): 37
Howe (AIP): 10

Young (R): 49
Galvin (D): 41


Given that this is Alaska the high third party votes could well be genuine.

[minionofmidas]

Oct 17, 2020 9:00:10 GMT Richard Allen said:

NYT / Siena College


Trump (R): 45
Biden (D): 39
Jorgenson (L): 8

Sullivan (R): 45
Gross (D): 37
Howe (AIP): 10

Young (R): 49
Galvin (D): 41


Given that this is Alaska the high third party votes could well be genuine.

doubt that. this poll does show the incumbents overperforming Trump (in terms of margin) though which isn't really in line with the received chatter but strikes me as perfectly plausible.

[nelson]

Oct 17, 2020 9:00:10 GMT Richard Allen said:

NYT / Siena College


Trump (R): 45
Biden (D): 39
Jorgenson (L): 8

Sullivan (R): 45
Gross (D): 37
Howe (AIP): 10

Young (R): 49
Galvin (D): 41

Given that this is Alaska the high third party votes could well be genuine.

Native Alaskans are significantly underrepresented in the poll so it's likely too Trump/Sullivan friendly. Whereas Don Young has some native Alaskan support, esp. among older Natives, so that's less of an issue for him.

But no pollster has figured out how to poll Alaska accurately, so no need to take AK polling too seriously. 

[Richard Allen]

Oct 17, 2020 10:53:53 GMT nelson said:

Oct 17, 2020 9:00:10 GMT Richard Allen said:

NYT / Siena College


Trump (R): 45
Biden (D): 39
Jorgenson (L): 8

Sullivan (R): 45
Gross (D): 37
Howe (AIP): 10

Young (R): 49
Galvin (D): 41

Given that this is Alaska the high third party votes could well be genuine.

Native Alaskans are significantly underrepresented in the poll so it's likely too Trump/Sullivan friendly. Whereas Don Young has some native Alaskan support, esp. among older Natives, so that's less of an issue for him.

But no pollster has figured out how to poll Alaska accurately, so no need to take AK polling too seriously. 

Nate Cohn said before hand that he was nervous about polling Alaska due to the well known difficulties. They only did it because it edged out Kansas in a Twitter poll of which state people wanted them to poll.

[johng]

The poll was of 423 likely voters. It's a state that is difficult to poll. The pollster hasn't polled the state before.

No matter the methodology, that should tell you something about the poll.

Though the numbers don't look wholly unreasonable.

[David Boothroyd]

My name is Inigo Pollster. You outvoted my candidate. Prepare to die.

[Richard Allen]

Given recent trends in Alaska I find it unlikely that third party candidates will poll as low as 2-3%. The NYT/Siena polls probably overstate them but not be all that much.

[heslingtonian]

Notoriously hard to poll for obvious reasons. The Senate and House races will be close but ultimately the Republicans will probably hold on as they usually do. Trump 51%, Biden 47%

[CatholicLeft]

Gravis: Senate
Sullivan (R) 48%
Gross (I) 45%
0ther/unsure 7%

HoR
Young (R) 49%
Galvin (I) 44%
0ther/unsure 7%

Presidential
Trump (R) 52%
Biden (D) 43%
0ther/unsure 5%

26th-28th October. 770 respondents. MoE 3.5%

[heslingtonian]

The consensus seems to be that Trump is about 5-8% ahead here although it's a very hard state to poll.

[Richard Allen]

Oct 29, 2020 18:03:18 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Gravis: Senate
Sullivan (R) 48%
Gross (I) 45%
0ther/unsure 7%

HoR
Young (R) 49%
Galvin (I) 44%
0ther/unsure 7%

Presidential
Trump (R) 52%
Biden (D) 43%
0ther/unsure 5%

26th-28th October. 770 respondents. MoE 3.5%

Point of order, Gross and Galvin both appear as Democrats on the ballot.

[CatholicLeft]

Oct 29, 2020 21:35:13 GMT Richard Allen said:

Oct 29, 2020 18:03:18 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Gravis: Senate
Sullivan (R) 48%
Gross (I) 45%
0ther/unsure 7%

HoR
Young (R) 49%
Galvin (I) 44%
0ther/unsure 7%

Presidential
Trump (R) 52%
Biden (D) 43%
0ther/unsure 5%

26th-28th October. 770 respondents. MoE 3.5%

Point of order, Gross and Galvin both appear as Democrats on the ballot.

Point of Order accepted, although they emphasise their Independent status.

[iain]

Alaska will begin counting its absentee ballots tomorrow. I’m not sure how long this is expected to take.

[Richard Allen]

Nov 9, 2020 17:42:17 GMT iain said:

Alaska will begin counting its absentee ballots tomorrow. I’m not sure how long this is expected to take.

It will probably take quite a while to count them all but we probably won't need all that many to be counted before we can be certain that Trump, Sullivan and Young have all won.

[CatholicLeft]

Nov 10, 2020 9:27:47 GMT Richard Allen said:

Nov 9, 2020 17:42:17 GMT iain said:

Alaska will begin counting its absentee ballots tomorrow. I’m not sure how long this is expected to take.

It will probably take quite a while to count them all but we probably won't need all that many to be counted before we can be certain that Trump, Sullivan and Young have all won.

Dr Gross's team are expressing confidence, but I don't see it as it would require a remarkable percentage of this next set of ballots for him to close the gap. Be funny if he did, as it would really put the cat among the pigeons in the Senate.

[curiousliberal]

Nov 10, 2020 9:59:24 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Nov 10, 2020 9:27:47 GMT Richard Allen said:

It will probably take quite a while to count them all but we probably won't need all that many to be counted before we can be certain that Trump, Sullivan and Young have all won.

Dr Gross's team are expressing confidence, but I don't see it as it would require a remarkable percentage of this next set of ballots for him to close the gap. Be funny if he did, as it would really put the cat among the pigeons in the Senate.

It is worth mentioning that the initial NYT estimate of 56% of ballots already being counted was wrong and the tally of absentee ballots cast in Alaska is estimated to be over 10,000 higher. Gross has only the slimmest of chances but they could break quite differently from the in-person votes and save his hide, although at this point I'd consider a Biden-Sullivan result more likely than Trump-Gross or Biden-Gross.

[Richard Allen]

Nov 10, 2020 9:59:24 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Nov 10, 2020 9:27:47 GMT Richard Allen said:

It will probably take quite a while to count them all but we probably won't need all that many to be counted before we can be certain that Trump, Sullivan and Young have all won.

Dr Gross's team are expressing confidence, but I don't see it as it would require a remarkable percentage of this next set of ballots for him to close the gap. Be funny if he did, as it would really put the cat among the pigeons in the Senate.

The absentees will clearly skew Democrat but as I said in another thread plenty of Republicans vote absentee in Alaska and have done for a long time. Gross's statement strikes me as either propaganda or the typical view of a political neophyte who has seen huge pro-Dem absentee margins elsewhere and thinks they will be replicated in his race. I would be genuinely astonished if the GOP don't end up winning all three races with relative ease.